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Figure 3. Probability of Progression to Active Multiple Myeloma or Primary Amyloidosis in Patients with Smoldering Multiple Myeloma among Three Risk Groups.

The proportion of plasma cells in bone marrow and the serum monoclonal protein level were combined to create a risk-stratification model with three distinct prognostic groups. At 15 years, the cumulative probability of progression was 87% for the 106 patients in group 1 (bone marrow plasma cells, 10%; monoclonal protein level, 3 g per deciliter), 70% for the 142 patients in group 2 (plasma cells, 10%; monoclonal protein level, <3 g per deciliter), and 39% for the 27 patients in group 3 (plasma cells, <10%; monoclonal protein level, 3 g per deciliter).