This study was designed to demonstrate the feasibility of forecasting functional health for the elderly. Using life-table techniques, we analyzed the expected remaining years of functional well-being, in terms of the activities of daily living, for noninstitutionalized elderly people living in Massachusetts in 1974. The expected years, or active life expectancy, showed a decrease, from 10 years for those aged 65 to 70 years to 2.9 for those 85 or older. Active life expectancy was shorter for the poor than for others, and women had a longer average duration of expected dependence than men. The measure of active life expectancy provides important information about health at a given population level, in terms other than death. This information can be used for actuarial purposes in planning and policy making. It is also useful in identifying high-risk populations for which preventive health care and medical care can compress morbidity during the last years of life.
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