Effect of Intensity of Oral Anticoagulation on Stroke Severity and Mortality in Atrial Fibrillation
Elaine M. Hylek, M.D., M.P.H., Alan S. Go, M.D., Yuchiao Chang, Ph.D., Nancy G. Jensvold, M.P.H., Lori E. Henault, M.P.H., Joe V. Selby, M.D., M.P.H., and Daniel E. Singer, M.D.
Background The incidence of stroke in patients with atrial fibrillationis greatly reduced by oral anticoagulation, with the full effectseen at international normalized ratio (INR) values of 2.0 orgreater. The effect of the intensity of oral anticoagulationon the severity of atrial fibrillationrelated strokeis not known but is central to the choice of the target INR.
Methods We studied incident ischemic strokes in a cohort of13,559 patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation. Strokeswere identified through hospitalization data bases and validatedon the basis of medical records, which also provided informationon the use of warfarin or aspirin, the INR at admission, andcoexisting illnesses. The severity of stroke was graded accordingto a modified Rankin scale. Thirty-day mortality was ascertainedfrom hospitalization and mortality files.
Results Of 596 ischemic strokes, 32 percent occurred duringwarfarin therapy, 27 percent during aspirin therapy, and 42percent during neither type of therapy. Among patients who weretaking warfarin, an INR of less than 2.0 at admission, as comparedwith an INR of 2.0 or greater, independently increased the oddsof a severe stroke in a proportional-odds logistic-regressionmodel (odds ratio, 1.9; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.1to 3.4) across three severity categories and the risk of deathwithin 30 days (hazard ratio, 3.4; 95 percent confidence interval,1.1 to 10.1). An INR of 1.5 to 1.9 at admission was associatedwith a mortality rate similar to that for an INR of less than1.5 (18 percent and 15 percent, respectively). The 30-day mortalityrate among patients who were taking aspirin at the time of thestroke was similar to that among patients who were taking warfarinand who had an INR of less than 2.0.
From the General Medicine Division, Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston (E.M.H., Y.C., L.E.H., D.E.S.); the Division of Research, Kaiser Permanente of Northern California, Oakland (A.S.G., N.G.J., J.V.S.); and the Departments of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco (A.S.G.).
Address reprint requests to Dr. Hylek at the General Medicine Division, Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital, 50 Staniford St., 9th Fl., Boston, MA 02114.
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