Surgeon Volume and Operative Mortality in the United States
John D. Birkmeyer, M.D., Therese A. Stukel, Ph.D., Andrea E. Siewers, M.P.H., Philip P. Goodney, M.D., David E. Wennberg, M.D., M.P.H., and F. Lee Lucas, Ph.D.
Background Although the relation between hospital volume andsurgical mortality is well established, for most procedures,the relative importance of the experience of the operating surgeonis uncertain.
Methods Using information from the national Medicare claimsdata base for 1998 through 1999, we examined mortality amongall 474,108 patients who underwent one of eight cardiovascularprocedures or cancer resections. Using nested regression models,we examined the relations between operative mortality and surgeonvolume and hospital volume (each in terms of total proceduresperformed per year), with adjustment for characteristics ofthe patients and other characteristics of the providers.
Results Surgeon volume was inversely related to operative mortalityfor all eight procedures (P=0.003 for lung resection, P<0.001for all other procedures). The adjusted odds ratio for operativedeath (for patients with a low-volume surgeon vs. those witha high-volume surgeon) varied widely according to the procedure from 1.24 for lung resection to 3.61 for pancreaticresection. Surgeon volume accounted for a large proportion ofthe apparent effect of the hospital volume, to an extent thatvaried according to the procedure: it accounted for 100 percentof the effect for aortic-valve replacement, 57 percent for electiverepair of an abdominal aortic aneurysm, 55 percent for pancreaticresection, 49 percent for coronary-artery bypass grafting, 46percent for esophagectomy, 39 percent for cystectomy, and 24percent for lung resection. For most procedures, the mortalityrate was higher among patients of low-volume surgeons than amongthose of high-volume surgeons, regardless of the surgical volumeof the hospital in which they practiced.
Conclusions For many procedures, the observed associations betweenhospital volume and operative mortality are largely mediatedby surgeon volume. Patients can often improve their chancesof survival substantially, even at high-volume hospitals, byselecting surgeons who perform the operations frequently.
Source Information
From the Department of Surgery, DartmouthHitchcock Medical Center, Lebanon, N.H. (J.D.B., P.P.G.); the Veterans Affairs Outcomes Group, Veterans Affairs Medical Center, White River Junction, Vt. (J.D.B., P.P.G.); the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences, Toronto (T.A.S.); and the Center for Outcomes Research and Evaluation, Maine Medical Center, Portland (A.E.S., D.E.W., F.L.L.).
Address reprint requests to Dr. Birkmeyer at the Section of General Surgery, DartmouthHitchcock Medical Center, Lebanon, NH 03756, or at john.birkmeyer{at}hitchcock.org.
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