FREE NEJM E-TOC    HOME   |   SUBSCRIBE   |   CURRENT ISSUE   |   PAST ISSUES   |   COLLECTIONS   |   Search Term  Advanced Search

Sign in | Get NEJM's E-Mail Table of Contents — Free | Subscribe

Previous Volume 352:1138-1145 March 17, 2005 Number 11 Next

	Full Text PDF PDA Full Text Supplementary Material Purchase this article Editorial by Preston, S. H. Letters Add to Personal Archive Add to Citation Manager Notify a Friend E-mail When Cited E-mail When Letters Appear PubMed Citation

ABSTRACT

Forecasts of life expectancy are an important component of public policy that influence age-based entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare. Although the Social Security Administration recently raised its estimates of how long Americans are going to live in the 21st century, current trends in obesity in the United States suggest that these estimates may not be accurate. From our analysis of the effect of obesity on longevity, we conclude that the steady rise in life expectancy during the past two centuries may soon come to an end.

Source Information

From the University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago (S.J.O., D.J.P., R.C.H., J.L., J.B.); University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center, Oklahoma City (B.A.C.); University of California at San Francisco, San Francisco (L.H.); International Longevity Center, New York (R.N.B.); University of Alabama, Birmingham (D.B.A.); and Children's Hospital, Boston (D.S.L.).

Address reprint requests to Dr. Olshansky at the University of Illinois, 1603 W. Taylor St., Rm. 885, Chicago, IL 60612, or at sjayo{at}uic.edu.

Full Text of this Article

Related Letters:

Obesity and Longevity
Whitehouse F. W., Simon P. A., Frye D. M., Blanchard B. M., Carpenter A. H., Suter P. M., Moser C., Preston S. H.
Extract | Full Text | PDF  
N Engl J Med 2005; 352:2555-2557, Jun 16, 2005. Correspondence

This article has been cited by other articles:

• Kumanyika, S. K., Obarzanek, E., Stettler, N., Bell, R., Field, A. E., Fortmann, S. P., Franklin, B. A., Gillman, M. W., Lewis, C. E., Poston, W. C. II, Stevens, J., Hong, Y. (2008). Population-Based Prevention of Obesity: The Need for Comprehensive Promotion of Healthful Eating, Physical Activity, and Energy Balance: A Scientific Statement From American Heart Association Council on Epidemiology and Prevention, Interdisciplinary Committee for Prevention (Formerly the Expert Panel on Population and Prevention Science). Circulation 118: 428-464 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Dupre, M. E., Liu, G., Gu, D. (2008). Predictors of Longevity: Evidence From the Oldest Old in China. Am. J. Public Health 98: 1203-1208 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Lee, J. M. (2008). Why Young Adults Hold the Key to Assessing the Obesity Epidemic in Children. Arch Pediatr Adolesc Med 162: 682-687 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Crummy, F., Naughton, M. T, Elborn, J S. (2008). Obesity and the respiratory physician. Thorax 63: 576-577 [Full Text]  
• JASIK, C. B., LUSTIG, R. H. (2008). Adolescent Obesity and Puberty: The "Perfect Storm". Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci. 1135: 265-279 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Holland, W. L., Summers, S. A. (2008). Sphingolipids, Insulin Resistance, and Metabolic Disease: New Insights from in Vivo Manipulation of Sphingolipid Metabolism. Endocr. Rev. 29: 381-402 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Salihu, H. M., Alio, A. P., Wilson, R. E., Sharma, P. P., Kirby, R. S., Alexander, G. R. (2008). Obesity and Extreme Obesity: New Insights Into the Black-White Disparity in Neonatal Mortality. Obstet Gynecol 111: 1410-1416 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Eithsdottir, S. Th., Kristjansson, A. L., Sigfusdottir, I. D., Allegrante, J. P. (2008). Trends in physical activity and participation in sports clubs among Icelandic adolescents. Eur J Public Health 18: 289-293 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Burke, G. L., Bertoni, A. G., Shea, S., Tracy, R., Watson, K. E., Blumenthal, R. S., Chung, H., Carnethon, M. R. (2008). The Impact of Obesity on Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors and Subclinical Vascular Disease: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Arch Intern Med 168: 928-935 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Atzmon, G., Pollin, T. I., Crandall, J., Tanner, K., Schechter, C. B., Scherer, P. E., Rincon, M., Siegel, G., Katz, M., Lipton, R. B., Shuldiner, A. R., Barzilai, N. (2008). Adiponectin Levels and Genotype: A Potential Regulator of Life Span in Humans. J. Gerontol. A Biol. Sci. Med. Sci. 63: 447-453 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• McGill, H. C. Jr, McMahan, C. A., Gidding, S. S. (2008). Preventing Heart Disease in the 21st Century: Implications of the Pathobiological Determinants of Atherosclerosis in Youth (PDAY) Study. Circulation 117: 1216-1227 [Full Text]  
• Ritz, E. (2008). Cardiovascular Literature--Beyond Nephrology. CJASN 3: 317-323 [Full Text]  
• Muennig, P., Jia, H., Lee, R., Lubetkin, E. (2008). I Think Therefore I Am: Perceived Ideal Weight as a Determinant of Health. Am. J. Public Health 98: 501-506 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Rice, J., Thombs, D., Leach, R., Rehm, R. (2008). Successes and Barriers for a Youth Weight-Management Program. CLIN PEDIATR 47: 143-147 [Abstract]  
• Meara, E. R., Richards, S., Cutler, D. M. (2008). The Gap Gets Bigger: Changes In Mortality And Life Expectancy, By Education, 1981-2000. Health Aff (Millwood) 27: 350-360 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Nemetz, P. N., Roger, V. L., Ransom, J. E., Bailey, K. R., Edwards, W. D., Leibson, C. L. (2008). Recent Trends in the Prevalence of Coronary Disease: A Population-Based Autopsy Study of Nonnatural Deaths. Arch Intern Med 168: 264-270 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Jeffery, R W, Sherwood, N E (2008). Is the obesity epidemic exaggerated? No. BMJ 336: 245-245 [Full Text]  
• LaFontaine, T. (2008). Physical Activity: The Epidemic of Obesity and Overweight Among Youth: Trends, Consequences, and Interventions. AMERICAN JOURNAL OF LIFESTYLE MEDICINE 2: 30-36 [Abstract]  
• Prevost, R. R. (2008). Pharmacy Review: Promoting Physical Activity in Youth: A Pharmacist's Reflections. AMERICAN JOURNAL OF LIFESTYLE MEDICINE 2: 40-42 [Abstract]  
• Lopez-Garcia, E., Faubel, R., Leon-Munoz, L., Zuluaga, M. C, Banegas, J. R, Rodriguez-Artalejo, F. (2008). Sleep duration, general and abdominal obesity, and weight change among the older adult population of Spain. Am. J. Clin. Nutr. 87: 310-316 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Northrup, K. L., Cottrell, L. A., Wittberg, R. A. (2008). L.I.F.E.: A School-Based Heart-Health Screening and Intervention Program. The Journal of School Nursing 24: 28-35 [Abstract]  
• Schernthaner, G., Morton, J. M. (2008). Bariatric Surgery in Patients With Morbid Obesity and Type 2 Diabetes. Diabetes Care 31: S297-S302 [Full Text]  
• Berry, L. L., Parish, J. T., Janakiraman, R., Ogburn-Russell, L., Couchman, G. R., Rayburn, W. L., Grisel, J. (2008). Patients' Commitment to Their Primary Physician and Why It Matters. Ann Fam Med 6: 6-13 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Ludwig, D. S. (2007). Childhood Obesity -- The Shape of Things to Come. NEJM 357: 2325-2327 [Full Text]  
• Klenk, J., Rapp, K., Buchele, G., Keil, U., Weiland, S. K. (2007). Increasing life expectancy in Germany: quantitative contributions from changes in age- and disease-specific mortality. Eur J Public Health 17: 587-592 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Davis, J. M., Cooke, S. M. (2007). Educating for a healthy, sustainable world: an argument for integrating Health Promoting Schools and Sustainable Schools. HEALTH PROMOT INT 22: 346-353 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Davis, M. M., Gance-Cleveland, B., Hassink, S., Johnson, R., Paradis, G., Resnicow, K. (2007). Recommendations for Prevention of Childhood Obesity. Pediatrics 120: S229-S253 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Greenland, P., Lloyd-Jones, D. (2007). Time to End the Mixed and Often Incorrect Messages About Prevention and Treatment of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease. J Am Coll Cardiol 50: 2133-2135 [Full Text]  
• Gregg, E. W., Guralnik, J. M. (2007). Is Disability Obesity's Price of Longevity?. JAMA 298: 2066-2067 [Full Text]  
• Liao, S M, Goldschmidt, P J, Sugarman, J (2007). Ethical and policy issues relating to progenitor-cell-based strategies for prevention of atherosclerosis. J. Med. Ethics 33: 643-646 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Woolf, S. H. (2007). Future Health Consequences of the Current Decline in US Household Income. JAMA 298: 1931-1933 [Full Text]  
• Velasquez-Mieyer, P., Neira, C. P., Nieto, R., Cowan, P. A. (2007). Review: Obesity and cardiometabolic syndrome in children. Therapeutic Advances in Cardiovascular Disease 1: 61-81 [Abstract]  
• EVERITT, A. V., Le COUTEUR, D. G. (2007). Life Extension by Calorie Restriction in Humans. Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci. 1114: 428-433 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Din-Dzietham, R., Liu, Y., Bielo, M.-V., Shamsa, F. (2007). High Blood Pressure Trends in Children and Adolescents in National Surveys, 1963 to 2002. Circulation 116: 1488-1496 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Ritz, E. (2007). Metabolic Syndrome: An Emerging Threat to Renal Function. CJASN 2: 869-871 [Full Text]  
• Ehrmann, P. R. (2007). Childhood Obesity: Call to Action for America's Physicians. JAOA: Journal of the American Osteopathic Association 107: 245-246 [Full Text]  
• Ford, E. S., Ajani, U. A., Croft, J. B., Critchley, J. A., Labarthe, D. R., Kottke, T. E., Giles, W. H., Capewell, S. (2007). Explaining the Decrease in U.S. Deaths from Coronary Disease, 1980-2000. NEJM 356: 2388-2398 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• (2007). Less weight or more hype with {blacktriangledown}rimonabant?. DTB 45: 41-44 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Kane, R. L., Priester, R., Neumann, D. (2007). Does Disparity in the Way Disabled Older Adults Are Treated Imply Ageism?. Gerontologist 47: 271-279 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Hallowell, P. T., Stellato, T. A., Schuster, M., Graf, K., Robinson, A., Jasper, J. J. (2007). Avoidance of Complications in Older Patients and Medicare Recipients Undergoing Gastric Bypass. Arch Surg 142: 506-512 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Mani, Ar., Radhakrishnan, J., Wang, H., Mani, Al., Mani, M.A., Nelson-Williams, C., Carew, K.S., Mane, S., Najmabadi, H., Wu, D., Lifton, R.P. (2007). Metabolic Syndrome--What We Know and What We Don't Know: LPR6 Mutation in a Family with Early Coronary Disease and Metabolic Risk Factors. Science 315: 1278-1282, 2007. J. Am. Soc. Nephrol. 18: 1619-1623 [Full Text]  
• DeMaria, E. J. (2007). Bariatric Surgery for Morbid Obesity. NEJM 356: 2176-2183 [Full Text]  
• Alakhras, M., Decker, P. A., Nadrous, H. F., Collazo-Clavell, M., Ryu, J. H. (2007). Body Mass Index and Mortality in Patients With Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis. Chest 131: 1448-1453 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Goodman, E., Daniels, S. R., Meigs, J. B., Dolan, L. M. (2007). Instability in the Diagnosis of Metabolic Syndrome in Adolescents. Circulation 115: 2316-2322 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Choudhary, A. K., Donnelly, L. F., Racadio, J. M., Strife, J. L. (2007). Diseases Associated with Childhood Obesity. Am. J. Roentgenol. 188: 1118-1130 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Lauer, M. S. (2007). Primary Prevention of Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease: The High Public Burden of Low Individual Risk. JAMA 297: 1376-1378 [Full Text]  
• Schwartz, M. B., Brownell, K. D. (2007). Actions Necessary to Prevent Childhood Obesity: Creating the Climate for Change. J Law Med Ethics 35: 78-89  
• Gostin, L. O. (2007). Law as a Tool to Facilitate Healthier Lifestyles and Prevent Obesity. JAMA 297: 87-90 [Full Text]  
• Brown, B. B., Wells, N. M. (2007). Guest Editor's Introduction: Physical Environments, Physical Activity, and Diet: Environment-Behavior Perspectives. Environment and Behavior 39: 3-5  
• Willcox, B. J., He, Q., Chen, R., Yano, K., Masaki, K. H., Grove, J. S., Donlon, T. A., Willcox, D. C., Curb, J. D. (2006). Midlife Risk Factors and Healthy Survival in Men.. JAMA 296: 2343-2350 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Kiberd, B. (2006). The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemic: Stepping Back and Looking Forward. J. Am. Soc. Nephrol. 17: 2967-2973 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Kohatsu, N. D., Tsai, R., Young, T., VanGilder, R., Burmeister, L. F., Stromquist, A. M., Merchant, J. A. (2006). Sleep duration and body mass index in a rural population.. Arch Intern Med 166: 1701-1705 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Vachharajani, V., Vital, S. (2006). Obesity and sepsis.. J Intensive Care Med 21: 287-295 [Abstract]  
• Colagiuri, R., Colagiuri, S., Yach, D., Pramming, S. (2006). The Answer to Diabetes Prevention: Science, Surgery, Service Delivery, or Social Policy?. Am. J. Public Health 96: 1562-1569 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Muennig, P., Lubetkin, E., Jia, H., Franks, P. (2006). Gender and the Burden of Disease Attributable to Obesity. Am. J. Public Health 96: 1662-1668 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Jee, S. H., Sull, J. W., Park, J., Lee, S.-Y., Ohrr, H., Guallar, E., Samet, J. M. (2006). Body-Mass Index and Mortality in Korean Men and Women. NEJM 355: 779-787 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Simon, G. E., Von Korff, M., Saunders, K., Miglioretti, D. L., Crane, P. K., van Belle, G., Kessler, R. C. (2006). Association Between Obesity and Psychiatric Disorders in the US Adult Population.. Arch Gen Psychiatry 63: 824-830 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Eckel, R. H., Kahn, R., Robertson, R. M., Rizza, R. A. (2006). Preventing Cardiovascular Disease and Diabetes: A call to action from the American Diabetes Association and the American Heart Association. Diabetes Care 29: 1697-1699 [Full Text]  
• Eckel, R. H., Kahn, R., Robertson, R. M., Rizza, R. A. (2006). Preventing Cardiovascular Disease and Diabetes: A Call to Action From the American Diabetes Association and the American Heart Association. Circulation 113: 2943-2946 [Full Text]  
• Hayflick, L. (2006). LA DOLCE VITA VERSUS LA VITA SOBRIA. Gerontologist 46: 413-416 [Full Text]  
• Gelfand, E. V., Cannon, C. P. (2006). Rimonabant: A Cannabinoid Receptor Type 1 Blocker for Management of Multiple Cardiometabolic Risk Factors. J Am Coll Cardiol 47: 1919-1926 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• DE GREY, A. D.N.J. (2006). Extrapolaholics Anonymous: Why Demographers' Rejections of a Huge Rise in Cohort Life Expectancy in This Century are Overconfident.. Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci. 1067: 83-93 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Barish, G. D. (2006). Peroxisome Proliferator-Activated Receptors and Liver X Receptors in Atherosclerosis and Immunity. J. Nutr. 136: 690-694 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Simons-Morton, D. G., Obarzanek, E., Cutler, J. A. (2006). Obesity Research--Limitations of Methods, Measurements, and Medications. JAMA 295: 826-828 [Full Text]  
• Poirier, P., Giles, T. D., Bray, G. A., Hong, Y., Stern, J. S., Pi-Sunyer, F. X., Eckel, R. H. (2006). Obesity and Cardiovascular Disease: Pathophysiology, Evaluation, and Effect of Weight Loss: An Update of the 1997 American Heart Association Scientific Statement on Obesity and Heart Disease From the Obesity Committee of the Council on Nutrition, Physical Activity, and Metabolism. Circulation 113: 898-918 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Narkiewicz, K. (2006). Obesity and hypertension--the issue is more complex than we thought. Nephrol Dial Transplant 21: 264-267 [Full Text]  
• Caballero, B., Wang, Y. (2006). Commentary: Obesity and mortality--light at the end but still a long tunnel. Int J Epidemiol 35: 21-22 [Full Text]  
• Campos, P., Saguy, A., Ernsberger, P., Oliver, E., Gaesser, G. (2006). The epidemiology of overweight and obesity: public health crisis or moral panic?. Int J Epidemiol 35: 55-60 [Full Text]  
• Flegal, K. M (2006). Commentary: The epidemic of obesity--what's in a name?. Int J Epidemiol 35: 72-74 [Full Text]  
• American Heart Association, , Gidding, S. S., Dennison, B. A., Birch, L. L., Daniels, S. R., Gilman, M. W., Lichtenstein, A. H., Rattay, K. T., Steinberger, J., Stettler, N., Van Horn, L. (2006). Dietary Recommendations for Children and Adolescents: A Guide for Practitioners. Pediatrics 117: 544-559 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Yan, L. L., Daviglus, M. L., Liu, K., Stamler, J., Wang, R., Pirzada, A., Garside, D. B., Dyer, A. R., Van Horn, L., Liao, Y., Fries, J. F., Greenland, P. (2006). Midlife Body Mass Index and Hospitalization and Mortality in Older Age. JAMA 295: 190-198 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Azain, M. J., Broderson, J. R., Martin, R. J. (2006). Effect of Long-Term Somatotropin Treatment on Body Composition and Life Span in Aging Obese Zucker Rats. Exp. Biol. Med. 231: 76-83 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Carnethon, M. R., Gulati, M., Greenland, P. (2005). Prevalence and Cardiovascular Disease Correlates of Low Cardiorespiratory Fitness in Adolescents and Adults. JAMA 294: 2981-2988 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Kersh, R., Morone, J. A. (2005). Obesity, courts, and the new politics of public health.. Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law 30: 839-868 [Abstract]  
• Velasquez-Mieyer, P., Perez-Faustinelli, S., Cowan, P. A. (2005). Identifying Children at Risk for Obesity, Type 2 Diabetes, and Cardiovascular Disease. Diabetes Spectr. 18: 213-220 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Endorsed by the American Academy of Pediatrics, , Gidding, S. S., Dennison, B. A., Birch, L. L., Daniels, S. R., Gilman, M. W., Lichtenstein, A. H., Rattay, K. T., Steinberger, J., Stettler, N., Van Horn, L. (2005). Dietary Recommendations for Children and Adolescents: A Guide for Practitioners: Consensus Statement From the American Heart Association. Circulation 112: 2061-2075 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Nestle, M. (2005). Preventing Childhood Diabetes: The Need for Public Health Intervention. Am. J. Public Health 95: 1497-1499 [Full Text]  
• Bloomgarden, Z. T. (2005). Second World Congress on the Insulin Resistance Syndrome: Hypertension, cardiovascular disease, and treatment approaches. Diabetes Care 28: 2073-2080 [Full Text]  
• Whitehouse, F. W., Simon, P. A., Frye, D. M., Blanchard, B. M., Carpenter, A. H., Suter, P. M., Moser, C., Preston, S. H. (2005). Obesity and Longevity. NEJM 352: 2555-2557 [Full Text]  
• Goldfarb, B. (2005). CDC Casts Obesity-Related Death Toll in New Light. DOC News 2: 1-3 [Full Text]  
• Olshansky, S. J., Carnes, B. A., Hershow, R., Passaro, D., Layden, J., Brody, J., Hayflick, L., Butler, R. N., Allison, D. B., Ludwig, D. S. (2005). Misdirection on the Road to Shangri-La. Sci Aging Knowl Environ 2005: pe15-pe15 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Eckel, R. H., Daniels, S. R., Jacobs, A. K., Robertson, R. M. (2005). America's Children: A Critical Time for Prevention. Circulation 111: 1866-1868 [Full Text]  
• Tuljapurkar, S. (2005). Future Mortality: A Bumpy Road to Shangri-La?. Sci Aging Knowl Environ 2005: pe9-pe9 [Abstract] [Full Text]  
• Preston, S. H. (2005). Deadweight? -- The Influence of Obesity on Longevity. NEJM 352: 1135-1137 [Full Text]