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Volume 328:1237-1243 April 29, 1993 Number 17
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Advances in Diagnostic Imaging and Overestimations of Disease Prevalence and the Benefits of Therapy
William C. Black, and H. Gilbert Welch

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Over the past two decades a vast new armamentarium of diagnostic techniques has revolutionized the practice of medicine. The entire human body can now be imaged in exquisite anatomical detail. Computed tomography (CT), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), and ultrasonography routinely "section" patients into slices less than a centimeter thick. Abnormalities can be detected well before they produce any clinical signs or symptoms. Undoubtedly, these technological advances have enhanced the physician's potential for understanding disease and treating patients.

Unfortunately, these technological advances also create confusion that may ultimately be harmful to patients. Consider the case of prostate cancer. Although the prevalence . . . [Full Text of this Article]

Prevalence of Disease

Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms

Cancer

Breast Cancer

Therapeutic Effectiveness

Lead-Time Bias

Length Bias

Apparent, Real, and Spurious Effects

The Cycle of Increasing Intervention

Conclusions


Source Information

From the Center for the Evaluative Clinical Sciences, Dartmouth Medical School, Hanover, N.H. (W.C.B., H.G.W.); the Department of Radiology, Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center, Lebanon, N.H. (W.C.B.); and the Medical Service, Veterans Affairs Hospital, White River Junction, Vt. (H.G.W.).

Address reprint requests to Dr. Black at the Center for the Evaluative Clinical Sciences, Dartmouth Medical School, 318 Strausenburgh Hall, Hanover, NH 03755-3863.

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