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Original Article
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Volume 328:1220-1225 April 29, 1993 Number 17
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Plasma Triglyceride Level and Mortality from Coronary Heart Disease
Michael H. Criqui, Gerardo Heiss, Richard Cohn, Linda D. Cowan, Chirayath M. Suchindran, Shrikant Bangdiwala, Steven Kritchevsky, David R. Jacobs, Haesook Kim O'Grady, and C.E. Davis

 

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ABSTRACT

Background Whether the plasma triglyceride level is a risk factor for coronary heart disease has been controversial, and evaluation of the triglyceride level as a risk factor is fraught with methodologic difficulties.

Methods We studied the association between plasma triglyceride levels and the 12-year incidence of death from coronary heart disease in 10 North American populations participating in the Lipid Research Clinics Follow-up Study, while adjusting for the potential confounding effects of other risk factors for cardiovascular disease, including the level of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol. All analyses were sex-specific, and separate analyses were performed in high and low strata of HDL cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, fasting plasma glucose, and age.

Results The rates of coronary death in both men and women increased with the triglyceride level. In Cox proportional-hazards models adjusted for age, in which the natural log of the triglyceride levels was used to give a normal distribution, the relative risk per natural-log unit of triglyceride (e.g., a triglyceride level of 150 mg per deciliter vs. a level of 55 mg per deciliter) was 1.54 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.19 to 1.98; P<0.001) in men and 1.88 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.19 to 2.98; P = 0.007) in women. After an adjustment for potential covariates, however, these relative risks were not statistically significant. Analyses based on lipoprotein cholesterol levels revealed a positive association between the triglyceride level and coronary mortality in the lower stratum of both HDL and LDL cholesterol, but not in the higher stratum. Conversely, the HDL cholesterol level was unrelated to coronary mortality in the lower stratum of LDL cholesterol, but was strongly inversely associated with coronary death in the higher stratum of LDL cholesterol. The relative risk of coronary death associated with triglyceride level was higher at younger ages. The associations between the triglyceride level and coronary mortality in the lower HDL cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, and age strata were small and were further reduced by an adjustment for the fasting plasma glucose level.

Conclusions Overall, the plasma triglyceride level showed no independent association with coronary mortality. However, in subgroups of subjects with lower HDL and LDL cholesterol levels and in younger subjects, defined a priori, an association between the triglyceride level and coronary mortality was observed, although this association was small and was not statistically significant after an adjustment for the plasma glucose level.


Despite decades of interest and numerous clinical and epidemiologic investigations, the status of the plasma triglyceride level as a risk factor for coronary heart disease remains unsettled1,2,3. In many prospective studies the triglyceride level has been a strong risk factor for coronary heart disease in univariate analyses, but an adjustment in multivariate analyses for the total or high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol level often diminished the association1,4,5,6,7. Nonetheless, the triglyceride level has been reported to be an independent and statistically significant risk factor in multivariate analyses in several studies8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15.

The formulation of multivariate models that include the triglyceride level as an independent variable is complex and associated with several problems. First, the conventional adjustment for the total cholesterol level, which is used as a surrogate for the level of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, is inappropriate. In patients with very high triglyceride levels, a large portion of the total cholesterol will consist of very-low-density lipoprotein (VLDL) cholesterol, which is reflected in the total triglyceride level3. Thus, in this instance, the total triglyceride level is, in effect, being adjusted for the VLDL triglyceride level.

Second, the distribution of triglyceride levels is markedly skewed16. Thus, only categorical or normalizing transformations are appropriate for distribution-dependent analyses, such as standard regression techniques.

Third, there is considerable individual variation in triglyceride levels, and this variability increases with the level of triglyceride17. Thus, when a covariate such as HDL cholesterol appears to explain the effect of triglyceride in multivariate analysis, this could be because of true confounding or because HDL cholesterol is simply measured more precisely.

Fourth, the levels of HDL cholesterol and apolipoprotein A-I are strongly and inversely correlated with triglyceride levels,18 as is consistent with the active metabolic link between triglyceride-rich lipoproteins and the lipoprotein particles in the high-density range. The levels of HDL cholesterol (or apolipoprotein A-I) may be indicators of efficient metabolism of triglyceride-rich particles in the fasting and postprandial states19. Consequently, adjusting the effects of triglyceride for HDL cholesterol levels in a multivariate model may not provide an appropriate representation of the underlying biologic process.

Fifth, some studies suggest that the triglyceride level may be a risk factor only in certain subjects, such as women,20,21 those with low total cholesterol levels,6 or diabetics22,23,24. These relations can be obscured by an analysis of all subgroups together. Finally, elevated triglyceride levels often accompany glucose intolerance, and previous studies have not considered the full range of glucose levels as a covariate.

With the above considerations in mind, we analyzed the status of triglyceride as an independent risk factor for death due to coronary heart disease in 7505 men and women 30 years of age or older who were followed for an average of 12.2 years in the Lipid Research Clinics Follow-up Study.

Methods

The methods used in the Lipid Research Clinics Follow-up Study have been reported elsewhere25,26. The subjects were from 10 North American populations and were initially studied between 1972 and 1976. The base-line examination for this report was considered the second visit and included a random sample of 15 percent of the original study population (seen on the first visit) and all patients who had hyperlipidemia on the first visit26. As a result, 43.3 percent of the subjects in the Follow-up Study had hyperlipidemia. Table 1 shows the number of men and women in the Follow-up Study and the number excluded from these analyses. A total of 8825 subjects who were at least 30 years of age on the second visit, 4704 men and 4121 women, were eligible for the Follow-up Study. We excluded 323 men and 365 women with clinically manifest coronary heart disease at base line, defined as a finding of any one of the following: angina or the use of anginal medications; use of antiarrhythmic agents, digitalis, or propranolol; congestive heart failure; arrhythmias at rest during electrocardiography; and electrocardiographic evidence of myocardial infarction at rest. Because of their small numbers, 222 men and 342 women who were nonwhite were excluded. Other subjects were excluded because they had fasted for less than 12 hours before the study began, they were pregnant, or they had missing values for the triglyceride level or one or more covariables. Thus, a total of 4129 men and 3376 women remained in the study.

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Table 1. The Number of Subjects in the Lipid Research Clinics Follow-up Study and the Number Excluded.

 
Participants underwent an extensive base-line interview and physical examination. Plasma cholesterol and triglyceride levels were determined in each laboratory with the Technicon AutoAnalyzer I or II analytical system adapted for the Lipid Research Clinics Program. Triglycerides were analyzed fluorometrically in all samples, and the same method of analysis was used with both instruments. The HDL cholesterol level was estimated in plasma after precipitation of the apolipoprotein B-containing lipoprotein by heparin and manganese chloride. Lipoproteins were separated by centrifugation in a saline density gradient (1.006 g per milliliter) to yield a supernatant fraction containing VLDL cholesterol and an infranatant fraction containing both LDL cholesterol and HDL cholesterol. Total cholesterol was measured in the infranatant fraction, and the LDL cholesterol level was calculated by subtracting the HDL cholesterol level from the total infranatant cholesterol level. These measurements are standard methods used by the Lipid Research Clinics Program26,27.

In addition to HDL and LDL cholesterol levels, other potential confounding variables considered for this analysis were age, cigarette-smoking status, systolic blood pressure, body-mass index (expressed as the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters), fasting plasma glucose level, and postmenopausal estrogen use in women, all of which were potentially associated with both the triglyceride level and coronary heart disease. These variables were assessed with the standard methods used by the Lipid Research Clinics Program25. Alcohol was not analyzed as a covariate because it showed no significant independent association with the triglyceride level in earlier analyses16,28.

Vital status was determined annually with a mailed questionnaire. As of the last follow-up date for these analyses, November 14, 1987, vital status had been determined for over 99 percent of the subjects. When a participant was identified as deceased, a death certificate was forwarded to the central patient registry of the Lipid Research Clinics. If there was any mention of cardiovascular disease on the death certificate, the cause of death was reviewed by a formal mortality-classification panel, which considered various materials in such decisions, including narratives provided by the next of kin, physicians' records, and hospital records, in addition to the death certificate. Discrepancies were adjudicated by the panel. Details of this protocol have been published previously29. In these analyses, deaths listed as definitely due to coronary heart disease or as suspected to be due to it were included. Previous analyses of HDL and LDL cholesterol levels and mortality from coronary heart disease have shown similar relations for the end points of definite as compared with definite or suspected coronary heart disease,29 and use of the latter category maximizes the number of events. These analyses were based on an average of 12.2 years of follow-up.

Sex-specific rates of mortality due to coronary heart disease adjusted directly for age were calculated according to the quintile of triglyceride level. The cutoff points were calculated from the random sample examined on the second visit. In an attempt to reduce the effects of the large intraindividual variability in triglyceride level, the mean of the triglyceride measurements on visits 1 and 2 -- values that were obtained an average of three months apart -- were calculated and employed in these analyses. The rates derived from these mean values were compared with the rates derived from the values obtained on visit 2 alone. The rates were also calculated for phenotype IV and for phenotypes I and V combined (the phenotypes refer to different patterns of hypertriglyceridemia)30.

The Cox proportional-hazards model31 was employed for multivariate analysis, with the length of time to the occurrence of death from coronary heart disease as the dependent variable. The natural log of the triglyceride levels was used as the independent variable in order to normalize the distribution of triglyceride levels (a requirement for the Cox model). Separate models were run that considered age alone and age plus the usual covariates for coronary heart disease, and a third set of models also included the fasting plasma glucose level as a covariate. Models without as well as with the plasma glucose level as a covariate are reported for comparison with earlier studies, which generally did not include glucose as a covariate. Separate models were run for men and women, and to explore the possibility that the plasma triglyceride level might have a different association with mortality from coronary heart disease at different levels of other lipoproteins or glucose, or at different ages, sex-specific models were run separately for subjects whose values were below or above selected cutoff points for the HDL cholesterol level, LDL cholesterol level, glucose level, and age. These cutoff points were 35 mg per deciliter (0.90 mmol per liter) for HDL cholesterol and 160 mg per deciliter (4.13 mmol per liter) for LDL cholesterol, on the basis of the National Cholesterol Education Program guidelines, and 110 mg per deciliter (6.11 mmol per liter) for glucose, the standard upper limit of normal in most laboratories. Too few women had HDL cholesterol levels below 35 mg per deciliter (n = 72), so a level of 45 mg per deciliter (1.16 mmol per liter) was used as the cutoff point. The base-line cutoff point for age was 70 years. No adjustments were made for multiple comparisons, but individual P values are reported. All P values are two-tailed.

Results

The age-adjusted rates of death from coronary heart disease per 1000 person-years, according to the quintile of the mean of the triglyceride levels on visits 1 and 2, are shown for men in Figure 1 and Figure for women in Figure 2. The triglyceride cutoff points are also shown. In men, no clear association between triglyceride levels and death from coronary heart disease appeared until the fourth and fifth quintiles, in which the mortality rates were higher. In women, the increase in risk began at the third quintile and continued through the fifth quintile. The analysis of dyslipoproteinemia phenotypes showed an increased risk for phenotype IV, but not for phenotypes I and V combined, although the number of subjects with phenotype I or V was very small (n = 39). In addition to its association with mortality from coronary heart disease, an elevated triglyceride level was also associated with total mortality. The age-adjusted total death rates per 1000 person-years of follow-up for triglyceride quintiles 1 through 5 were 8.6, 10.4, 10.9, 11.6, and 12.2 in men and 4.9, 5.5, 7.1, 8.2, and 8.9 in women.


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Figure 1. Age-Adjusted Rates of Mortality Due to Coronary Heart Disease in Men, According to Quintile of Triglyceride.

The cutoff points are shown below the figure.

 

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Figure 2. Age-Adjusted Rates of Mortality Due to Coronary Heart Disease in Women, According to Quintile of Triglyceride.

The cutoff points are shown below the figure.

 
Table 2 shows the results of the multivariate Cox regression analyses. The use of the natural-log unit of triglyceride as the independent variable results in different increments of triglyceride per natural-log unit at different levels of triglyceride. The following are examples of typical differences in triglyceride of 1 natural-log unit: 100 mg per deciliter as compared with 37 mg per deciliter (63 mg per deciliter), 150 mg per deciliter as compared with 55 mg per deciliter (95 mg per deciliter), and 200 mg per deciliter as compared with 74 mg per deciliter (126 mg per deciliter). In men there was a 54 percent increase (P<0.001) in the risk of death from coronary heart disease per natural-log unit of triglyceride, and in women there was an 88 percent increase (P = 0.007), after an adjustment for age alone. After an additional adjustment for HDL and LDL cholesterol levels, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, body-mass index, and postmenopausal estrogen use in women, the excess risk decreased to 31 percent in men and 19 percent in women, and neither excess was statistically significant, indicating substantial confounding by these covariates. Further adjustment for the plasma glucose level reduced the excess risk to 9 percent in men and to 4 percent in women, values that were also not statistically significant.

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Table 2. Relative Risk of Death from Coronary Heart Disease per Natural-Log Unit of Triglyceride.

 
Table 3 shows the results of the multivariate stratified analyses. As in Table 2, multivariate relative risks were estimated with and without the fasting plasma glucose level as a covariate. Separate analysis of the risk of death from coronary heart disease and the triglyceride level at higher and lower levels of HDL and LDL cholesterol indicated that the elevated risk associated with triglyceride levels was confined in men to HDL cholesterol levels of less than 35 mg per deciliter (relative risk, 1.86; P = 0.05) and to LDL cholesterol levels of less than 160 mg per deciliter (relative risk, 1.86; P = 0.02). After an adjustment for the glucose level, however, these relative risks were 1.44 (P = 0.24) and 1.60 (P = 0.08), respectively. The findings in women showed a less pronounced trend, and the smaller numbers of events precluded nominal levels of statistical significance from being achieved. We also evaluated the relative risks posed by each increase of 10 mg per deciliter (0.26 mmol per liter) in the HDL cholesterol level with respect to the LDL cholesterol strata. In both men and women, the triglyceride level but not the HDL cholesterol level (relative risk, 0.98 in men and 1.12 in women; P not significant for both) was related to mortality from coronary heart disease at lower LDL cholesterol levels, whereas at higher LDL cholesterol levels there was no association with the triglyceride level, but HDL cholesterol levels were strongly inversely associated with mortality from coronary heart disease (relative risk, 0.68 in men [P<0.001] and 0.67 in women [P = 0.006]).

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Table 3. Relative Risk of Death from Coronary Heart Disease per Natural-Log Unit of Triglyceride, Stratified According to HDL and LDL Cholesterol Levels and Age at Base Line.

 
The relative risks did not differ according to the glucose level. The age stratification revealed higher relative risks with respect to the triglyceride level in men (relative risk, 1.41; P = 0.06) and women (relative risk, 1.85; P = 0.06) who were less than 70 years of age. An additional adjustment for the glucose level reduced the relative risk in men to 1.20 (P = 0.34) and in women to 1.61 (P = 0.17).

Discussion

Recent reviews of case-control studies and prospective studies of the triglyceride level as a risk factor for coronary heart disease indicate that the triglyceride level is, with rare exception, a univariate risk factor3,32. As Hulley et al. pointed out some years ago, an adjustment for the total cholesterol level and the HDL cholesterol level in particular usually markedly reduces this association1. There are, however, several exceptions to this observation8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15. Some studies have found an association only for defined subgroups, such as women,20,21 men with low total cholesterol levels,6 or diabetics22,23,24.

Our analyses were designed to avoid several pitfalls of earlier research. Models that adjust for the total cholesterol level partially adjust for high levels of VLDL cholesterol and triglycerides in subjects with high levels of total triglyceride. We explored such models in our data, and they "overadjusted" the data on men to a moderate degree, but not the data on women. We thus adjusted for the HDL and LDL cholesterol levels. Furthermore, we used the natural-log transformation of the triglyceride level to avoid the problem of the nonnormal distribution of triglyceride levels. Finally, since we had two separate measurements of triglyceride level available from the first and second visits, we evaluated the mean of these two values to reduce the very large known intraindividual variability of triglyceride levels17. In agreement with theoretical expectation,33 the mean values gave a slightly more precise estimate of risk than the values for the second visit alone.

The fasting plasma glucose level was a predictor of death from coronary heart disease in our population and was strongly correlated with the triglyceride level16. Previous epidemiologic studies of the risk associated with the triglyceride level have generally not considered the fasting glucose level as a covariate. In our study, the relative risks associated with the triglyceride level were considerably reduced after the glucose level was added to the models, indicating that part of the risk of coronary heart disease associated with the triglyceride level is due to associated glucose intolerance.

Our analyses showed stronger associations between an elevated triglyceride level and the risk of coronary heart disease in the presence of lower levels of HDL and LDL cholesterol. The HDL cholesterol level was not related to the risk of coronary heart disease in the presence of low levels of LDL cholesterol, but was strongly protective at higher levels. Although two recent reports have indicated that there is an inverse association between the HDL cholesterol level and myocardial infarction at lower levels of total cholesterol,34,35 neither of these studies was adjusted for the triglyceride level. A previous study has reported that the triglyceride level is significantly associated with coronary heart disease in men with a total cholesterol level of <= 220 mg per deciliter ( <= 5.68 mmol per liter)6. In the presence of lower levels of LDL cholesterol and elevated triglyceride levels, LDL particles are cholesterol-poor and the production of LDL may be impaired. Here, the triglyceride levels appear to predict risk. With higher levels of LDL cholesterol, the reverse cholesterol-transfer function of HDL may assume greater importance. For subjects over 70 years of age at base line, the triglyceride level was unrelated to the risk of coronary heart disease. This finding is concordant with that of the Honolulu Heart Study, in which the serum triglyceride level was a strong and independent risk factor for coronary heart disease beginning before the age of 60, but not at older ages36.

Two recent studies have indicated that there is an excess risk of coronary heart disease in the presence of triglyceride levels of >= 204 mg per deciliter (2.3 mmol per liter) when the ratio of LDL cholesterol to HDL cholesterol exceeds 537,38. However, such stratified analyses are still confounded by the inverse correlation between triglyceride levels and HDL cholesterol levels39.

There has been some speculation that the lipoprotein phenotypes I and V might not be associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease despite the presence of elevated levels of triglyceride, whereas in clinical reports the type IV phenotype apparently is accompanied by an increased risk. Our data support this view. However, even in our large population, which included many subjects with hyperlipidemia, there were only 39 subjects with phenotype I or V (and only one death from coronary heart disease), indicating that this finding should be interpreted with caution. It is likely that triglyceride particles of different sizes differ in prognostic importance. For example, a recent clinical trial indicated that the increase in triglyceride levels accompanying postmenopausal estrogen use in women resulted from the increased production of large, triglyceride-rich VLDL, most of which was cleared directly from the circulation and not converted to small VLDL or LDL40. Particle heterogeneity in our population-based data increases the generalizability of our results, but probably is also responsible for an underestimation of the risk of coronary heart disease in certain subgroups with elevated triglyceride levels.

A case-control study and several experimental studies provide relevant information. Austin and colleagues showed that patients with nonfatal myocardial infarctions had LDL levels similar to those of control subjects, but were three times as likely to have a larger number of small, dense LDL particles, the so-called pattern B41. Subjects with pattern B lipoproteins were also more obese and had higher triglyceride levels and lower HDL cholesterol levels. In a multivariate analysis, however, the triglyceride level explained most of the risk associated with pattern B and was a better explanatory variable than any other covariate, including the HDL cholesterol level. Although Austin et al.41 suggest that pattern B may have a strong genetic component, recent experimental evidence also suggests that exercise may favorably affect the levels of triglycerides, HDL cholesterol, apolipoprotein A, and apolipoprotein B and the size and density of LDL particles42,43.

In the Stockholm Ischaemic Heart Disease Secondary Prevention Study, the group treated with clofibrate and niacin had a sharp and significant reduction in the rate of mortality from coronary heart disease, which was strongly and significantly correlated with the reduction in triglyceride levels but not with the reduction in cholesterol levels44. Hypertriglyceridemia was the most common lipid abnormality in this study, occurring in 50 percent of the patients, whereas hypercholesterolemia was present in only 13 percent. In the Helsinki Heart Study, the reduction in coronary heart disease resulting from gemfibrozil therapy was largely localized to the previously noted subgroup with a triglyceride level of >= 204 mg per deciliter ( >= 2.3 mmol per liter) and a ratio of LDL cholesterol to HDL cholesterol of more than 538.

Data from several sources now suggest that the fasting triglyceride level may contain information about the risk of coronary heart disease, but the exact lipid metabolic pathways involved, and the best way to intervene in those pathways, is still uncertain. Non-lipid pathways have been little explored -- for example, the association of hypertriglyceridemia with hypercoagulability has been studied. Hypertriglyceridemia has been reported to be associated with increased levels of both fibrinogen and clotting factor X45 and with decreased fibrinolytic capacity due to increased plasma levels of a rapid inhibitor to tissue-type plasminogen activator46. The latter condition has been associated with increased rates of reinfarction in young men47.

In conclusion, an elevated triglyceride level serves at a minimum as a univariate sentinel for persons at high risk of dying of coronary heart disease, and physicians should not ignore this sign. In our data, the triglyceride levels in subjects who were 70 years of age or younger at base line remained a risk factor for death from coronary heart disease after adjustment for the standard covariates, including the HDL cholesterol level, and was particularly important prognostically in a setting of lower levels of HDL and LDL cholesterol. Adjustment for the fasting glucose level reduced these associations, however, so that the results were no longer statistically significant.

Supported by Lipid Research Clinics collaborative contracts from the National Institutes of Health (N01-HV12159, N01-HV12156, N01-HV32961, N01-HV12160, N01-HV22914, N01-HV22913, N01-HV12158, N01-HV12161, N01-HV22915, N01-HV12903, N01-HV12243, N01-HV22932, N01-HV22917, N01-HV12157, and Y01-HV30010).

We are indebted to Clydene Nee and Kristine Wilson for assistance in the preparation of the manuscript.


Source Information

From the Departments of Community and Family Medicine and Medicine, University of California, La Jolla (M.H.C.); the Departments of Epidemiology (G.H.) and Biostatistics (G.H., R.C., C.M.S., S.B., H.K.O., C.E.D.), University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill; the Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, College of Public Health, University of Oklahoma, Oklahoma City (L.D.C.); the Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, University of Tennessee, Memphis (S.K.); and the Division of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (D.R.J.).

Address reprint requests to Dr. Basil M. Rifkind at the Lipid Metabolism-Atherogenesis Branch, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892.

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Appendix

The following persons participated in the Lipid Research Clinics Follow-up Study: Executives: H.A. Tyroler (Chairman), K. Bangdiwala, E. Barrett-Connor, C.E. Davis, M. Feinleib, W. Hazzard, D. Jacobs, L. Kirkland-Ellis, I. Mebane, R. Mowery, R. Prineas, B. Rifkind, C. Rubenstein, and W.J. Schull; Directors: E. Barrett-Connor, R. Bradford, B. Christensen, L. Cowan, M. Criqui, W. Haskell, J. Hoover, D. Jacobs, J.A. Little, J. Morrison, G. Owen, P. Van Natta, P. Wahl, and R. Wallace; Mortality-Classification Panel: A.S. Leon, R. Prineas, C. Rubenstein (Chairman), J. Ruwitch, and J. Wilson; and Directors Committee: F. Abboud, W.S. Agras, E. Bierman, R. Bradford, V. Brown, M. Buzzard, W. Connor, G. Cooper, J. Farquhar, I. Frantz, E. Gerasimova, A. Gotto, J. Grizzle, W.R. Hazzard, D. Hunninghake, F. Ibbott, W. Insull, A. Klimov, R. Knopp, P. Kwiterovich, J.C. LaRosa, J.A. Little, F. Mattson, M. Mishkel, B.M. Rifkind, G. Schonfeld, H. Schrott, Y. Stein, D. Steinberg, G. Steiner, and O.D. Williams.


 

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N Engl J Med 1993; 329:1124-1128, Oct 7, 1993. Correspondence

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