Age-Related Increase in Mortality among Patients with First Myocardial Infarctions Treated with Thrombolysis
Aldo A. Maggioni, Attilio Maseri, Claudio Fresco, Maria G. Franzosi, Francesco Mauri, Eugenio Santoro, Gianni Tognoni, for The Investigators of the Gruppo Italiano por lo Studio della Sopravvivenza nell'Infarto Miocardico (GISSI-2)
Background The overall rate of mortality due to ischemic heartdisease is known to increase progressively with age. We evaluatedthe relation between the mortality rate and age in patientswith first myocardial infarctions treated with thrombolytictherapy.
Methods We studied 9720 patients with first infarctions whohad been enrolled in the GISSI-2 trial. (This trial comparedthe efficacy of tissue plasminogen activator with that of streptokinasein patients with myocardial infarction.) Of these, only 35 percenthad a history of angina. The relation between age and mortalityduring hospitalization and during the six months after dischargewas determined by unadjusted and adjusted analyses.
Results The in-hospital mortality rate was 1.9 percent amongpatients 40 years old or younger, but it increased to 31.9 percentamong those more than 80 years old; however, values for indicatorsof infarct size did not increase with age. Autopsies were performedin 20 percent of the 772 patients who died in the hospital;the findings showed that the frequency of cardiac rupture increasedfrom 19 percent among patients 60 years old or younger to 86percent among those more than 70 years old. The mortality ratefor the first six months after hospital discharge also increasedsignificantly with age. After adjustment for confounding variables,older age continued to be significantly associated with a higherrisk of in-hospital and post-discharge death. When age was introducedinto a multivariate model as a continuous variable, the riskof death was estimated to increase by about 6 percent per yearfor both in-hospital and six-month mortality rates.
Conclusions In patients with first myocardial infarctions whoreceived thrombolytic therapy, age was a powerful independentpredictor of both in-hospital and post-discharge mortality rates.The exponential, age-related increase in the mortality ratedid not appear to be explained by larger infarcts.
The rate of mortality due to ischemic heart disease increasesprogressively with age. In the United States, about 80 percentof deaths from ischemic heart disease occur among patients overthe age of 651.
The findings of recent large multicenter trials of thrombolytictherapy for acute myocardial infarction have shown that amongpatients over the age of 70 years, mortality during hospitalizationis considerably higher than among younger patients2,3,4,5. However,it is unclear whether the increased incidence of fatal outcomesin the elderly is the result of more severe coronary atherosclerosis(which could lead to larger infarcts), greater susceptibilityof the aging heart to myocardial necrosis, or other variables,such as coexisting illnesses.
The aim of this study was to assess the effect of clinical andepidemiologic variables on in-hospital and six-month mortalityas a function of age in patients with first confirmed myocardialinfarctions who were enrolled in the trial conducted by theGruppo Italiano per lo Studio della Sopravvivenza nell'InfartoMiocardico (GISSI-2).
Methods
Trial Design, Selection of Patients, and Treatment
The details of the design and main results of the GISSI-2 trialhave been presented elsewhere4. In brief, patients of any agewere eligible for randomization if they presented to the participatingcenters within six hours after the onset of symptoms, had nocontraindications to thrombolytic therapy, and had electrocardiographicevidence of ST-segment elevation of at least 1 mm in two limbleads or of at least 2 mm in one precordial lead. A total of12,381 patients with acute myocardial infarction who met thesecriteria were randomly assigned to treatment with streptokinase(1.5 million units given over a period of 30 to 60 minutes)or alteplase (tissue plasminogen activator, 100 mg given overa period of 3 hours), with or without heparin (12,500 unitsgiven subcutaneously twice daily). Of the total studied, 9720patients (78.5 percent) had first confirmed myocardial infarctions.
Clinical Data
Information about smoking, hypercholesterolemia, hypertension,and diabetes was abstracted from a standardized questionnaireby cardiologists specifically trained for this purpose. Whenthe patients visited the clinic, the cardiologists who completedthe study forms collected information about any earlier eventsuggesting angina pectoris, as indicated by recurring chestpain caused by effort and relieved by rest and also pain occurringduring emotional stress or spontaneously and lasting less than15 minutes, with a typical location or radiation or with thesame features as the pain experienced during the infarction.Whenever possible, the investigators also reviewed the patients'previous clinical records documenting the clinical history.The Killip scale6 was used to stratify the severity of impairmentof left ventricular function on admission. Whenever possible,left ventricular function was also assessed in survivors bytwo-dimensional echocardiography before discharge. Standard12-lead electrocardiography was also performed on dischargeto calculate the QRS score as a measure of the size of the infarct7.
An ad hoc committee blinded to the patients' thrombolytic treatmentreviewed the clinical records of those who had died, to assessthe causes of death. Cardiac rupture and cardiogenic shock resultingfrom rupture of the interventricular septum or papillary musclewere diagnosed only if they were found at autopsy.
Postmortem findings were available for 158 (20 percent) of the772 patients who died in the hospital. The degree of coronaryarteriosclerosis and the percentage of the left ventricle thatwas infarcted were estimated qualitatively during the postmortemexaminations.
For the 1073 patients (11 percent of the total population) whocould not be reached by the local monitor of the study, vitalstatus six months after discharge was determined through thecensus offices of their cities of residence. The deaths of 30patients were confirmed in this manner.
Estimation of Infarct Size and Left Ventricular Dysfunction
Three indicators of infarct size were used: the number of leadswith ST-segment elevation on the admission electrocardiogram,the ratio of the peak creatine kinase level to the upper limitof normal at each study-center laboratory, and the QRS scorecalculated at discharge6.
Left ventricular dysfunction was defined as the presence oflate (after the fourth hospital day) clinical congestive heartfailure (indicated by the presence of an S3 gallop, rales, dyspnea,or radiologic evidence of pulmonary congestion), or as extensiveleft ventricular injury in the absence of clinical heart failure(indicated by a left ventricular ejection fraction of 35 percentor less on echocardiography, or by injury to 45 percent or moreof myocardial segments [akinetic-dyskinetic scores] when a measurementof the left ventricular ejection fraction was not available8).The ejection fraction was calculated from left ventricular two-dimensionaltomograms by either the area-length method or the modified Simpsonrule9. Ejection fractions and akinetic-dyskinetic scores atdischarge were available for 3228 and 8044 patients, respectively(33.2 percent and 82.8 percent of the study population).
Quality Control
Local monitors received a two-day training course on methodsof data collection. The importance of validating the patients'answers was given special emphasis, and investigators were askedto review the patients' clinical records whenever possible.A random sample of about 10 percent of all echocardiographicassessments was also reviewed centrally. Data on the overallfrequency of agreement were adjusted for the agreement expectedby chance alone (kappa values). The kappa statistic showed highlysatisfactory agreement for echocardiographic markers of leftventricular dysfunction (0.75 for the ejection fraction and0.77 for the akinetic-dyskinetic score).
Statistical Analysis
The patients were divided into three age groups: patients 60years old or younger, those 61 to 70 years old, and those morethan 70 years old. All relations between variables were firstdetermined by an unadjusted analysis10. Statistical significancewas analyzed by chi-square tests. An adjusted analysis was performedwith models constructed by multiple logistic regression11. Factorsconsidered in the multivariable model for in-hospital mortalitywere age ( 60, 61 to 70, and >70 years); sex; number of hoursbetween the onset of symptoms and admission; Killip class onadmission; location of the infarct (anterior or elsewhere);history of smoking, hypertension, diabetes, or angina; body-massindex; peak creatine kinase ratio; and the number of leads withST-segment elevation. A second adjusted analysis (Cox model)of six-month mortality included the same variables and the indicatorsof the degree of left ventricular dysfunction at discharge.A third model incorporated the same variables and age as a continuousvariable in an analysis of both in-hospital and six-month mortality.The results are presented in terms of Mantel-Haenszel odds ratiosfor in-hospital mortality and in terms of relative risks forsix-month mortality, both with 95 percent confidence intervals.
Results
The base-line clinical characteristics of the patients are presentedaccording to age group in Table 1.
Table 1. Distribution of Clinical Variables of Patients with First Myocardial Infarctions, According to Age Group.
A history of angina was obtained from about 35 percent of thestudy population, and the incidence was similar in the age groups.In this trial, in which only patients with ST-segment elevationcould be enrolled, the number of leads showing ST-segment elevationat admission was similar among the age groups. The number ofpatients in Killip classes 3 and 4 (classes indicating moresevere hemodynamic impairment) and the number with anteriorinfarctions increased with age. A history of smoking was significantlymore common among younger patients, whereas a history of diabetes,hypercholesterolemia, and treated hypertension was obtainedsignificantly more frequently among older patients.
In-Hospital Mortality
Of the 9720 patients enrolled in the study, 1035 (10.6 percent)had died within six months after discharge -- 772 (7.9 percent)during hospitalization and 263 (2.9 percent of the survivors)during the six months after discharge.
In the univariate analysis (Table 2), age was a powerful predictorof in-hospital mortality, with an odds ratio of 2.9 (95 percentconfidence interval, 2.3 to 3.6) for patients 61 to 70 yearsold as compared with younger patients, and an odds ratio of8.9 (7.4 to 10.8) for patients more than 70 years old. A historyof smoking was found to be a "protective" factor in relationto the outcome of a first infarction. This paradoxical findingmay be due to the base-line characteristics of the patientswho smoked and, in particular, to the fact that smokers wereyounger than nonsmokers. The apparent protective effect of ahistory of smoking must be interpreted as a confounded result,because the statistical significance of this variable disappearedwhen the data were adjusted for age. All the other variablestested in the univariate analysis were associated with highermortality, but the magnitude of these associations differedgreatly among the variables. Weak associations (odds ratio,<2) were found between mortality and a longer interval betweenthe onset of symptoms and arrival at the hospital, a historyof hypertension, the presence of non-insulin-dependent diabetes,and chronic angina (angina present for more than one month).Stronger associations (odds ratio, >2) were found for advancedage, female sex, high Killip class at admission, insulin-dependentdiabetes, anterior-wall infarction, and a high number of leads( 6) with ST-segment elevation on the admission electrocardiogram.
Table 2. In-Hospital Mortality, According to Analysis of Study Variables.
To assess the independent contribution of age, the same variableswere introduced into a multivariate model (Table 2). Older agewas confirmed to be an independent predictor of mortality, withan odds ratio of 2.2 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.6 to2.9) for patients 61 to 70 years old and 3.9 (95 percent confidenceinterval, 2.9 to 5.3) for patients more than 70 years old. Theother variables that were confirmed as significantly associatedwith in-hospital mortality after adjustment were high Killipclass on admission, anterior location of the infarct, and ahigh number of leads with ST-segment elevation on the admissionelectrocardiogram.
When age was introduced into the multivariate model as a continuousvariable, its predictive value for in-hospital mortality wasconfirmed; the risk was estimated to increase exponentiallyby about 6 percent per year (odds ratio, 1.06; 95 percent confidenceinterval, 1.05 to 1.07). The overall in-hospital mortality was1.9 percent among patients 40 years old or younger, which increasedto 31.9 percent among patients more than 80 years old; valuesfor the indicators of infarct size did not increase significantlywith age (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Mortality among Patients with First Myocardial Infarctions, According to Age and Indicators of Infarct Size.
Age was considered a continuous variable, with the age of 40 years as the reference value. Values for the indicators of the size of the myocardial infarction did not show any increase with age.
Mortality during hospitalization increased exponentially with age; it is shown as an odds ratio (OR, calculated with the formula x = 0.1002588 x e0.0575x) and 95 percent confidence interval (CI). The curves for the indicators of infarct size show the percentage of patients with peak creatine kinase ratios more than six times the upper normal value of the study-center laboratory (CK >6 x normal) and the percentage with involvement of more than six electrocardiographic leads at entry.
Mortality during the interval from discharge to six months after discharge also increased exponentially with age; it is shown as a relative risk (RR, calculated with the formula x = 0.1094814 x e0.0553x). The curves for the indicators of infarct size show the percentage of patients with peak creatine kinase ratios more than six times normal and the percentage with QRS scores above 10.
Causes of In-Hospital Deaths
About half the deaths in each age group occurred on the dayof the infarction or the day after -- i.e., in 70 (56 percent)of the 125 patients 60 years old or younger who died, 112 (46percent) of the 244 patients 61 to 70 years old who died, and210 (52 percent) of the 403 patients more than 70 years oldwho died.
Electromechanical dissociation occurred in 13 percent of thepatients 60 years old or younger, 20 percent of those 61 to70 years old, and 25 percent of those more than 70 years old.Conversely, the rate of death due to ventricular fibrillationdecreased, from 15 percent among patients 60 years old or youngerto 10 percent among those 61 to 70 years old and to 6 percentamong those more than 70 years old. Autopsies were performedin 158 (20 percent) of the 772 patients who died during hospitalization(25 percent, 18 percent, and 21 percent of the three age groups,respectively). Cardiac rupture was found post mortem in 103of these patients, or 65 percent, and its incidence increasedprogressively, from 19 percent among those 60 years old or younger(6 of 31 patients) to 58 percent among those 61 to 70 yearsold (25 of 43 patients) and to 86 percent among those more than70 years old (72 of 84 patients). The variable incidence ofcardiac rupture in previous reports may well be due to the inclusionof patients from different age groups,12 but a possible roleof thrombolytic therapy cannot be excluded. At least two coronaryarteries with severe stenoses were found in 40 percent of patients60 years old or younger, 35 percent of those 61 to 70 yearsold, and 32 percent of those more than 70 years old. Infarctsinvolving less than 10 percent of the left ventricle were foundin 20 percent of patients 60 years old or younger, 23 percentof those 61 to 70 years old, and 32 percent of those more than70 years old.
Evaluation of Survivors before Discharge
The QRS score decreased progressively with age, but the differencesamong the three age groups were not significant. The percentageof patients with injury to more than 45 percent of myocardialsegments (expressed by the akinetic-dyskinetic score) was 3percent in the group 60 years old or younger, 4 percent in thegroup 61 to 70 years old, and 6 percent in the group more than70 years old; the mean left ventricular ejection fraction was50.8 ±11.5, 49.1 ±11.6, and 47.4 ±12.9,respectively.
Mortality from Discharge to Six Months
The mortality rate during the six months after discharge increasedsignificantly, from 1.3 percent among patients 60 years oldor younger to 3.0 percent among those 61 to 70 years old andto 7.4 percent among those more than 70 years old (Table 3).After adjustment, age continued to be associated with a higherrisk of death after discharge, with a relative risk of 2.0 (95percent confidence interval, 1.4 to 2.8) for patients 61 to70 years old and 3.9 (95 percent confidence interval, 2.7 to5.6) for those more than 70 years old. When age was introducedinto the adjusted model as a continuous variable, the risk ofdeath during the first six months after discharge was estimatedto increase exponentially by 5.7 percent per year (relativerisk, 1.06; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.04 to 1.07). Overallmortality after hospital discharge was 0.8 percent among patients40 years old or younger and 11.6 percent among those more than80 years old (Figure 1); the QRS scores at discharge were similarin these two age groups.
Table 3. Post-discharge Mortality, According to Analysis of Study Variables.
Discussion
In this study of a large group of patients presenting with firstmyocardial infarctions who were eligible to receive thrombolytictherapy, we observed that in-hospital mortality increased from2.8 percent among patients 60 years old or younger to 19.0 percentamong those more than 70 years old, confirming the findingsof previous studies2,3,4,5. The mortality rate during the firstsix months after discharge was 1.3 percent among patients 60years old or younger, but 7.4 percent among those more than70 years old. The age-related increase in mortality did notappear to be explained by larger infarcts, as assessed by peakcreatine kinase ratios and QRS scores on the electrocardiogram.However, both those measurements have limited precision in determininginfarct size. As the age of the patients increased, we observedan increase in the frequency of Killip classes 3 and 4 (reflectingmore severe hemodynamic dysfunction), echocardiographic evidenceof left ventricular dysfunction, clinical signs of left ventricularfailure, electromechanical dissociation, and cardiac rupture.Thus, older patients had more severe hemodynamic compromisethan younger patients, despite the fact that the measurementsof infarct size were similar across all age groups. Althoughthe patients from all age groups who survived until dischargehad a similar degree of estimated myocardial injury, the mortalityrate during the first six months after discharge increased exponentiallywith age and was about six times higher among patients morethan 70 years old than among those 60 years old or younger.
The explanation for our findings is unclear. Although the extentof coronary atherosclerosis increases with age, the number ofcoronary obstructive lesions was shown to plateau after theage of 60 in a series of 600 men who underwent autopsy13 andin a similar series of women14. Also, myocardial infarctionwas the very first manifestation of ischemic heart disease inabout 60 percent of our patients, irrespective of age. Suchpatients often do not have severe stenoses in the infarct-relatedartery15 and have less severe and less extensive coronary atherosclerosisdetectable by coronary angiography than patients presentingwith a long history of uncomplicated stable angina16. Furthermore,in our selected group of patients with myocardial infarctionwho presented with ST-segment elevation, and who died and subsequentlyunderwent autopsy (20 percent of patients who died during hospitalization),the number and degree of critical coronary stenoses did notdiffer according to age group. Consequently, the higher mortalityrate among older patients may not be related to more extensivecoronary artery disease.
Echocardiographic measurements of left ventricular dimensionsremain unchanged up to the ninth decade of life, whereas left-ventricular-wallthickness increases by approximately 30 percent between theages of 25 and 80 years17. The rate of myocardial contractionand relaxation decreases slightly with age, and the responseto beta-adrenergic stimulation is considerably reduced18. Furthermore,postmortem studies indicate a sustained loss of myocardial cellsin old age, with considerable expansion of the interstitialspace and hypertrophy of myocardial cells19 -- findings similarto those in the hearts of old rats20 -- which could result ina greater impairment of left ventricular function and a greaterrisk of cardiac rupture in older patients even if the estimatedsize of their infarct is similar to or smaller than that ofyounger patients. Reductions in lung compliance, renal function,and catecholamine response may be additional factors responsiblefor the worse outcome of myocardial infarction in older patients.The tendency of coexisting illnesses (such as pneumonia or pulmonaryemboli) to develop in elderly patients may also have a role.
Our findings may be applicable only to patients presenting withST-segment elevation who are eligible to receive thrombolytictherapy, but our data on this large group of patients suggestthat besides infarct size, older age is a major, independentrisk factor for death among patients with acute myocardial infarction.Furthermore, research should be directed toward the preventionof cardiac failure, rupture, and electromechanical dissociationin the elderly. For example, beta-blockers may reduce myocardialrupture due to infarction21. Ongoing multicenter trials22,23may eventually show whether nitrates or angiotensin-converting-enzymeinhibitors lower mortality after acute myocardial infarctionin older patients with cardiac failure by reducing their vulnerabilityto myocardial necrosis.
Source Information
A complete list of the investigators and centers participating in GISSI-2 has been published (Lancet 1990;336:65-71). The steering committee consisted of G.A. Feruglio, A. Lotto, F. Rovelli, P. Solinas, L. Tavazzi, and G. Tognoni. These studies were endorsed by the Associazione Nazionale Medici Cardiologi Ospedalieri and the Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche Mario Negri.
Address reprint requests to Dr. Maggioni at the GISSI-2 Coordinating Center, Via Eritrea 62, 20157 Milan, Italy.
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