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Volume 331:1253-1258 November 10, 1994 Number 19
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Bone Marrow Transplants from HLA-Identical Siblings as Compared with Chemotherapy for Children with Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia in a Second Remission
A. John Barrett, Mary M. Horowitz, Brad H. Pollock, Mei-Jie Zhang, Mortimer M. Bortin, George R. Buchanan, Bruce M. Camitta, Judith Ochs, John Graham-Pole, Philip A. Rowlings, Alfred A. Rimm, John P. Klein, Jonathan J. Shuster, Kathleen A. Sobocinski, and Robert Peter Gale

 

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ABSTRACT

Background It is unclear how best to treat children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia who are in a second remission after a bone marrow relapse. For those with HLA-identical siblings, the question of whether to perform a bone marrow transplantation or to continue chemotherapy has not been answered.

Methods We compared the results of treatment with marrow transplants from HLA-identical siblings in 376 children, as reported to the International Bone Marrow Transplant Registry, with the results of chemotherapy in 540 children treated by the Pediatric Oncology Group. A preliminary analysis identified variables associated with treatment failure in both groups. We selected cohorts by matching these variables. A possible bias associated with differences in the interval between remission and treatment was controlled for by choosing matched pairs in which the duration of the second remission in the chemotherapy recipient was at least as long as the time between the second remission and transplantation in the transplant recipient. A total of 255 matched pairs were studied.

Results The mean (±SE) probability of a relapse at five years was significantly lower among the transplant recipients than among the chemotherapy recipients (45 ±4 percent vs. 80 ±3 percent, P<0.001). At five years the probability of leukemia-free survival was higher after transplantation than after chemotherapy (40 ±3 percent vs. 17 ±3 percent, P<0.001). The relative benefit of transplantation as compared with chemotherapy was similar in children with prognostic factors indicating a high or low risk of relapse (the duration of the first remission, age, leukocyte count at the time of the diagnosis, and phenotype of the leukemic cells).

Conclusions For children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia in a second remission, bone marrow transplants from HLA-identical siblings result in fewer relapses and longer leukemia-free survival than does chemotherapy.


Current regimens of intensive chemotherapy produce remissions in almost all children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia. Additional treatment with consolidation and maintenance chemotherapy cures up to 70 percent of these children, but in about 25 percent of them the disease recurs in the bone marrow1,2,3. Most of these children have a second remission with chemotherapy, but the choice of subsequent treatment is controversial. One approach is more chemotherapy. In large published studies, chemotherapy resulted in leukemia-free survival at five years in 8 to 76 percent of patients but generally in 10 to 20 percent4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11. The main determinant of the outcome of chemotherapy is the duration of the first remission: a child with a brief first remission fares worse than one with a long first remission. Other variables reported to predict the outcome of chemotherapy are age, the leukocyte count at the time of the diagnosis, and the phenotype of the leukemic cells. Resistance to chemotherapy is the main cause of treatment failure.

Bone marrow transplantation from an HLA-identical sibling is an alternative treatment for children in a second remission12,13,14,15,16. Transplantation has resulted in leukemia-free survival at five years in 22 to 64 percent of patients in large series17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24. The duration of the first remission is also a primary determinant of the outcome of bone marrow transplantation19,20,21. Unlike the results with chemotherapy, treatment-related mortality and resistant leukemic cells contribute equally to the failure of treatment with bone marrow allografts.

Whether a child with acute lymphoblastic leukemia in a second remission who has an HLA-identical sibling should receive chemotherapy or a bone marrow transplant is a matter of intense debate15,16,24,25. To our knowledge, no randomized trials have addressed this question, because the relatively low incidence of acute lymphoblastic leukemia and the limited number of HLA-matched donors make accrual of patients difficult, even for multicenter cooperative groups26. Other reports comparing chemotherapy and transplantation are either inconclusive or contradictory15,22,25,26,27,28. In a previous comparison of data from the International Bone Marrow Transplant Registry (IBMTR) and data from trials with chemotherapy, we suggested that bone marrow transplantation in patients in a second remission after a bone marrow relapse resulted in a higher probability of leukemia-free survival in children with a short first remission (<= 18 months) but not in those with a long first remission29. However, prognostic and treatment information that might have accounted for the difference was not available for the patients receiving chemotherapy.

In this study we performed a matched-pair analysis to compare the results of treatment with bone marrow transplants from HLA-identical siblings in 255 children, as reported to the IBMTR, with the results of chemotherapy in 255 similar children enrolled in trials conducted by the Pediatric Oncology Group.

Methods

Patients Treated with Transplantation

The IBMTR collects data from over 250 transplantation centers worldwide that report information on consecutive patients receiving allogeneic or identical-twin bone marrow transplants. Participants account for about two thirds of all active transplantation teams30. The registry, which includes information on 40 to 50 percent of all allogeneic bone marrow transplantations since 1970, is the largest data base for transplantations in patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia. For this study, the cohort of transplant recipients was drawn from a population of patients 18 years of age or younger who received transplants from HLA-identical siblings between 1983 and 1991, while they were in a second remission after a bone marrow relapse. Children with an isolated extramedullary relapse, lymphoma with a leukemic transformation, or Down's syndrome were excluded. The selection of candidates for transplantation varied according to the policies of the transplantation teams. Most transplantations were performed in children without serious concurrent illnesses. The interval between the second remission and transplantation varied from 1 to 222 weeks (median, 10). For this patient population, the results of transplantation reported to the IBMTR are similar to those reported by most centers12,13.

Patients Treated with Chemotherapy

The Pediatric Oncology Group is a multicenter clinical-trials group including over 80 institutions in the United States, Canada, and Europe. The cohort of patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia who were treated with chemotherapy was drawn from a population of patients who were 18 years of age or younger and had had a second remission after treatment for a first bone marrow relapse. They were treated between April 1983 and May 1991 in study 8303, 8304, 8710, or 8862. Details of the treatments are reported elsewhere11,31 and are also available from the group's statistical center. Study 8303 excluded patients who had a relapse more than six months after maintenance chemotherapy had been discontinued (late relapse). Study 8304 included only patients with a late relapse. Study 8710 included patients with either an early or a late relapse but excluded those with T-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia or Down's syndrome. Study 8862 included patients with T-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia or T-cell non-Hodgkin's lymphoma but excluded those with Down's syndrome. The patients with T-cell non-Hodgkin's lymphoma were excluded from this analysis. The results of these trials are typical of the published results of studies in the United States and other countries in which children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia are treated after a first bone marrow relapse1,2,3.

Statistical Analysis

The initial study group consisted of 376 children in the IBMTR cohort and 540 in the Pediatric Oncology Group cohort. Two potential sources of bias were considered in comparing these groups. First, patient- and disease-related variables associated with the outcome of chemotherapy might have influenced the selection of patients for bone marrow transplantation. This could have resulted in an imbalance in prognostic factors between the groups. Second, the IBMTR cohort included only children who were in remission long enough to receive a transplant, whereas the Pediatric Oncology Group cohort included all children enrolled in the group's studies who had a second remission. The transplantation group therefore excluded children who died early or had an early second relapse. This could have introduced a bias favoring transplantation32,33.

We used the following statistical methods to address these issues. First, using a Cox proportional-hazards regression,34 we identified patient- and disease-related variables associated with treatment failure (relapse or death) in each group. The variables we tested in the model were age, sex, the leukocyte count at the time of the diagnosis, the phenotype, the year of the diagnosis, and the duration of the first remission. We then selected pairs of chemotherapy and transplant recipients by matching members from the two cohorts for all variables associated with the outcome of either therapy (P <= 0.1). These variables were the age at the time of the second remission (0 to 2, 3 to 10, or 11 to 18 years), the leukocyte count at the time of the diagnosis ( <= 50,000, 50,001 to 100,000, or >100,000 cells per cubic millimeter), the T-cell phenotype (yes or no), and the duration of the first remission (within six months). If more than one patient in the chemotherapy group was eligible for matching with a patient in the transplantation group, we selected the chemotherapy recipient with a first remission closest in duration to that of the transplant recipient. In addition, the chemotherapy recipient in each pair was selected from among the children with a second remission at least as long as the interval between the second remission and transplantation for the transplant recipient. We identified 255 pairs who met these criteria.

The primary end points we analyzed were the duration of survival without a relapse of leukemia (leukemia-free survival), the time to treatment-related mortality (death in continuous complete remission), and the time to a relapse. The probabilities of leukemia-free survival, treatment-related mortality, and relapse were calculated with Kaplan-Meier methods and compared by paired log-rank test35. For the analyses of leukemia-free survival, treatment was considered to have failed at the time of a relapse at any site or at the time of death from any cause; data on patients who were alive and in continuous complete remission were censored only at the time of the last follow-up visit. For analyses of treatment-related mortality, failure was defined as death during a continuous complete remission; data were censored at the time of a relapse or, among patients with continuous remissions, at the time of the last follow-up visit. For analyses of relapse, failure was defined as the recurrence of acute lymphoblastic leukemia at any site; data were censored at the time of a death or the last follow-up visit during a continuous remission. We used a Cox proportional-hazards regression model to test for interactions between treatment and age, sex, the leukocyte count at the time of the diagnosis, the leukemia-cell phenotype, and the duration of the first remission.

Results

Characteristics of the Patients

Table 1 shows the variables associated with treatment failure in the unmatched groups of children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia in a second remission who received either chemotherapy or bone marrow transplants. Among the 540 patients who received chemotherapy, an increased risk of treatment failure was associated with a leukocyte count >100,000 per cubic millimeter at the time of the diagnosis and by a first remission that was <= 36 months long. Among the 376 children who received marrow transplants, an increased risk of treatment failure was associated with an age >10 years, the presence of a T-cell phenotype, and a first remission lasting <= 36 months. Table 2 shows the characteristics of the matched cohorts, which were very similar.

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Table 1. Variables Significantly Associated with Treatment Failure (Relapse or Death) among Children with Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia in a Second Remission Receiving either Continued Chemotherapy or Bone Marrow Transplants from HLA-Identical Siblings.

 
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Table 2. Characteristics of the Matched Chemotherapy and Transplantation Cohorts.

 
Outcome

Figure 1 shows the actuarial probabilities of leukemia-free survival in the unmatched transplantation and chemotherapy cohorts. The mean (±SE) probability of leukemia-free survival at five years was 36 ±3 percent in the transplantation group and 16 ±2 percent in the chemotherapy group (P<0.001).


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Figure 1. Actuarial Probability of Leukemia-free Survival in Unmatched Cohorts of Children Receiving Chemotherapy or Undergoing Transplantation.

The numbers below the figure indicate the numbers of children at risk.

 
For the 255 matched pairs from the two cohorts, the probability of leukemia-free survival at five years was significantly higher after transplantation than after chemotherapy (40 ±3 percent vs. 17 ±3 percent, P<0.001). Moreover, the risk of a relapse was significantly lower after transplantation than after chemotherapy (45 ±4 percent vs. 80 ±3 percent, P<0.001) (Figure 2 and Figure 3 and Table 3). The probability of treatment-related death within five years was 14 ±4 percent with chemotherapy and 27 ±3 percent with bone marrow transplantation (P<0.001).


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Figure 2. Actuarial Probability of Leukemia-free Survival in Matched Cohorts of Children Receiving Chemotherapy or Undergoing Transplantation.

The numbers below the figure indicate the numbers of children at risk.

 

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Figure 3. Actuarial Probability of a Relapse in Matched Cohorts of Children Receiving Chemotherapy or Undergoing Transplantation.

The numbers below the figure indicate the numbers of children at risk.

 
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Table 3. Probabilities of Relapse and Leukemia-free Survival Five Years after Chemotherapy or Bone Marrow Transplantation.

 
Table 3 shows the probabilities of leukemia-free survival and relapse in subgroups of children according to the prognostic factors listed in Table 1. A Cox proportional-hazards regression model fitted with first-order interaction variables did not show significant interactions between the treatment and any of the prognostic variables studied -- that is, the relative benefit of transplantation as compared with chemotherapy was similar in all groups. The probability of leukemia-free survival at five years was higher after transplantation than after chemotherapy both in children whose first remission had lasted 36 months or less (35 ±4 percent vs. 10 ±3 percent for 179 pairs) (Figure 4A) and in those with a first remission that exceeded 36 months (53 ±7 percent vs. 32 ±6 percent) (Figure 4B). Comparisons of pairs of children with a first remission longer than 48 months (36 pairs) or longer than 60 months (18 pairs) yielded results that were similar to those for children with a first remission that exceeded 36 months.


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Figure 4. Actuarial Probability of Leukemia-free Survival in Matched Cohorts of Children Receiving Chemotherapy or Undergoing Transplantation, According to the Duration of the First Remission.

The numbers below the figure indicate the numbers of children at risk.

 
Discussion

Our study provides evidence that treatment with bone marrow transplants from HLA-identical siblings results in a statistically greater likelihood of leukemia-free survival at five years than does chemotherapy in children with a bone marrow relapse after a second remission of acute lymphoblastic leukemia. The reason for this difference was the lower risk of relapse after transplantation, which outweighed the higher risk of treatment-related mortality associated with this treatment. The outcome after transplantation was superior to the outcome after chemotherapy in subgroups of children with favorable or unfavorable prognostic factors (duration of first remission, <= 36 months or >36 months; leukocyte count at the time of the diagnosis, <= 100,000 per cubic millimeter or >100,000 per cubic millimeter; age, <= 10 years or >10 years; and phenotype, T-cell or non-T-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia). Since the numbers of matched pairs that could be evaluated in some of these subgroups were small (21 pairs with T-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia and 17 with leukocyte counts over 100,000 per cubic millimeter), the relative benefits of chemotherapy and transplantation remain uncertain in patients with these characteristics.

This study indicates that leukemia-free survival is longer after transplantation than after chemotherapy but does not completely answer the question of the best treatment strategy for children with acute lymphoblastic leukemia in a second remission. Our analysis does not consider a third option: to reserve transplantation for children who have a second relapse after receiving chemotherapy for their first relapse. However, the poor outcome of chemotherapy in children whose first remission lasts for 36 months or less (leukemia-free survival at five years, <10 percent) is an argument for early transplantation if an HLA-identical sibling is available. For children whose first remission is longer than 36 months and in whom chemotherapy results in a better outcome (leukemia-free survival, about 30 percent), it may be reasonable to defer transplantation until a subsequent relapse occurs.

Because there are no randomized trials comparing chemotherapy and transplantation, we used a matched-pair design to control both for known prognostic factors in childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia and for a time-to-treatment bias. Although the two cohorts were matched for these factors, there may have been unknown factors that differed between the cohorts. Consequently, our findings should be interpreted cautiously.

Our conclusions apply only to the chemotherapy and transplantation regimens used for the patients we studied and only to the transplantation of grafts from HLA-identical siblings. Other chemotherapy and transplantation regimens and autografts or transplants from donors other than HLA-identical siblings were not considered and may have different outcomes. However, the methods used for this study can readily be applied to comparisons of these other approaches.

Supported by grants (PO1-CA-40053, U10-CA-29139, CA-33625, CA-29281, CA-32053, CA-31566, and CA-30969) from the National Cancer Institute, the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and by grants from the Alpha Therapeutic Corporation, Armour Pharmaceutical Company, Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation, Bristol-Myers, Burroughs Wellcome Company, Charles E. Culpeper Foundation, Eleanor Naylor Dana Charitable Trust, Eppley Foundation for Research, Hoechst-Roussel Pharmaceuticals, Immunex Corporation, Kettering Family Foundation, Robert J. and Helen C. Kleberg Foundation, Eli Lilly and Company Foundation, Nada and Herbert P. Mahler Charities, Marion Merrell Dow, Ambrose Monell Foundation, Samuel Roberts Noble Foundation, Ortho Biotech Corporation, John Oster Family Foundation, Jane and Lloyd Pettit Foundation, RGK Foundation, Roerig Division of Pfizer Pharmaceuticals, Sandoz Research Institute, Stackner Family Foundation, Starr Foundation, Joan and Jack Stein Charities, Swiss Cancer League, and Wyeth-Ayerst Research.

This article is dedicated to the memory of Dr. Mortimer M. Bortin, who died July 25, 1994. Dr. Bortin was a pioneer of bone marrow transplantation, participating in one of the first successful transplantations in humans. He helped found the International Bone Marrow Transplant Registry in 1970 and served as its scientific director for over 20 years.


Source Information

From the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Bethesda, Md. (A.J.B.); the International Bone Marrow Transplant Registry, Health Policy Institute (M.M.H., M.-J.Z., M.M.B., P.A.R., K.A.S.), and the Departments of Pediatrics (B.M.C.) and Biostatistics (J.P.K.), Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee; the Pediatric Oncology Group Statistical Office (B.H.P., J.J.S.) and the College of Medicine, University of Florida (J.G.-P.), Gainesville; the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center, Dallas (G.R.B.); St. Jude's Children's Hospital, Memphis, Tenn. (J.O.); Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, Cleveland (A.A.R.); and Salick Health Care, Los Angeles (R.P.G.). Dr. Mortimer M. Bortin is deceased.

Address reprint requests to Dr. Horowitz at the International Bone Marrow Transplant Registry, Medical College of Wisconsin, 8701 W. Watertown Plank Rd., Milwaukee, WI 53226.

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Treatment of Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia in a Second Remission
Pinkel D., Johnson F. L., Thomas E. D., Barrett A. J., Pollock B. H., Buchanan G. R.
Extract | Full Text  
N Engl J Med 1995; 332:823-824, Mar 23, 1995. Correspondence

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