Lack of Effect of Long-Term Supplementation with Beta Carotene on the Incidence of Malignant Neoplasms and Cardiovascular Disease
Charles H. Hennekens, M.D., Julie E. Buring, Sc.D., JoAnn E. Manson, M.D., Meir Stampfer, M.D., Bernard Rosner, Ph.D., Nancy R. Cook, Sc.D., Charlene Belanger, M.A., Frances LaMotte, B.S., J. Michael Gaziano, M.D., Paul M. Ridker, M.D., Walter Willett, M.D., and Richard Peto, F.R.S.
Background Observational studies suggest that people who consumemore fruits and vegetables containing beta carotene have somewhatlower risks of cancer and cardiovascular disease, and earlierbasic research suggested plausible mechanisms. Because largerandomized trials of long duration were necessary to test thishypothesis directly, we conducted a trial of beta carotene supplementation.
Methods In a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trialof beta carotene (50 mg on alternate days), we enrolled 22,071male physicians, 40 to 84 years of age, in the United States;11 percent were current smokers and 39 percent were former smokersat the beginning of the study in 1982. By December 31, 1995,the scheduled end of the study, fewer than 1 percent had beenlost to follow-up, and compliance was 78 percent in the groupthat received beta carotene.
Results Among 11,036 physicians randomly assigned to receivebeta carotene and 11,035 assigned to receive placebo, therewere virtually no early or late differences in the overall incidenceof malignant neoplasms or cardiovascular disease, or in overallmortality. In the beta carotene group, 1273 men had any malignantneoplasm (except nonmelanoma skin cancer), as compared with1293 in the placebo group (relative risk, 0.98; 95 percent confidenceinterval, 0.91 to 1.06). There were also no significant differencesin the number of cases of lung cancer (82 in the beta carotenegroup vs. 88 in the placebo group); the number of deaths fromcancer (386 vs. 380), deaths from any cause (979 vs. 968), ordeaths from cardiovascular disease (338 vs. 313); the numberof men with myocardial infarction (468 vs. 489); the numberwith stroke (367 vs. 382); or the number with any one of theprevious three end points (967 vs. 972). Among current and formersmokers, there were also no significant early or late differencesin any of these end points.
Conclusions In this trial among healthy men, 12 years of supplementationwith beta carotene produced neither benefit nor harm in termsof the incidence of malignant neoplasms, cardiovascular disease,or death from all causes.
Observational epidemiologic studies suggest that people whoconsume higher dietary levels of fruits and vegetables containingbeta carotene have a lower risk of certain types of cancer1,2and cardiovascular disease,3 and basic research suggests plausiblemechanisms.4,5,6 It is difficult to determine from observationalstudies, however, whether the apparent benefits are due to betacarotene itself, other nutrients in beta carotenerichfoods, other dietary habits, or other, nondietary lifestylecharacteristics.7 Long-term, large, randomized trials can providea direct test of the efficacy of beta carotene in the preventionof cancer or cardiovascular disease.8 For cancer, such trialsshould ideally last longer than the latency period (at least5 to 10 years) of many types of cancer. A trial lasting 10 ormore years could allow a sufficient period of latency and anadequate number of cancers for the detection of even a smallreduction in overall risk due to supplementation with beta carotene.
Two large, randomized, placebo-controlled trials in well-nourishedpopulations (primarily cigarette smokers) have been reported.The Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta Carotene (ATBC) Cancer PreventionStudy, a placebocontrolled trial, assigned 29,000 Finnish malesmokers to receive beta carotene, vitamin E, both active agents,or neither, for an average of six years.9 The Beta-Caroteneand Retinol Efficacy Trial (CARET) enrolled 18,000 men and womenat high risk for lung cancer because of a history of cigarettesmoking or occupational exposure to asbestos; this trial evaluatedcombined treatment with beta carotene and retinol for an averageof less than four years.10 Both studies found no benefits ofsuch supplementation in terms of the incidence of cancer orcardiovascular disease; indeed, both found somewhat higher ratesof lung cancer and cardiovascular disease among subjects givenbeta carotene. The estimated excess risks were small, and itremains unclear whether beta carotene was truly harmful. Moreover,since the duration of these studies was relatively short, theyleave open the possibility that benefit, especially in termsof cancer, would become evident with longer treatment and follow-up.11
In this report, we describe the findings of the beta carotenecomponent of the Physicians' Health Study, a randomized trialin which 22,071 U.S. male physicians were treated and followedfor an average of 12 years.
Methods
Study Design
The Physicians' Health Study is a randomized, double-blind,placebo-controlled trial with a two-by-two factorial designthat tested aspirin and beta carotene in the primary preventionof cardiovascular disease and cancer. The methods of the studyhave been described in detail previously.12,13 Briefly, 22,071U.S. male physicians, who were 40 to 84 years of age in 1982and had no history of cancer (except nonmelanoma skin cancer),myocardial infarction, stroke, or transient cerebral ischemia,were randomly assigned to one of four groups: aspirin (325 mgon alternate days [Bufferin, provided by Bristol-Myers]) plusbeta carotene placebo, beta carotene (50 mg on alternate days[Lurotin, provided by BASF Corporation]) plus aspirin placebo,both active agents, or both placebos. Informed consent was obtainedfrom all participants, and the research protocol was reviewedand approved by the institutional review board at Brigham andWomen's Hospital in Boston. At base line in 1982, 11 percentof the physicians were current smokers and 39 percent were formersmokers.
The randomized aspirin component of the study was terminatedearly, on January 25, 1988, on the advice of the external data-monitoringboard, primarily because there was a statistically significant(P<0.001) 44 percent reduction in the risk of a first myocardialinfarction in the aspirin group.12,13 The randomized beta carotenecomponent continued uninterrupted until its scheduled termination,on December 31, 1995. A total of 11,036 physicians were assignedat random to receive beta carotene and 11,035 to receive betacarotene placebo. Data on all 22,071 participants were analyzedaccording to their treatment assignment, regardless of subsequentcompliance.
Study Treatment and Follow-Up
Every six months for the first year and annually thereafter,the participants were sent monthly calendar packs (providedby Bristol-Myers from 1982 through 1988) that contained redcapsules (beta carotene or placebo) for even-numbered days andwhite pills (aspirin or placebo) for odd-numbered days. AfterJanuary 25, 1988, physicians could request that their whitepills be active aspirin, but the beta carotene component ofthe trial remained randomized, double-blind, and placebo-controlleduntil December 31, 1995. Participants were sent brief yearlyfollow-up questionnaires, asking about their compliance withthe treatment regimen and about the occurrence of any relevantevents. After three mailed requests for follow-up information,the participants were contacted by telephone. When the randomizedaspirin study was terminated, participants had been treatedfor an average of five years; 99.7 percent were providing follow-upwith respect to morbidity by mailed questionnaire or telephoneinterview; follow-up for mortality was 100 percent complete.At the time, 85 percent of the beta carotene group was stilltaking the study pills; in the placebo group, 4 percent reportedtaking beta carotene or vitamin A supplements.
By the end of 1995, participants had been taking beta caroteneor placebo for an average of 12 years (range, 11.6 to 14.2).At the end of 11 years of follow-up (the last year completedfor all participants), 99.2 percent were still providing informationon morbidity; follow-up for mortality was 99.99 percent complete.In both the beta carotene group and the placebo group, 80 percentof participants were still taking the study pills, with an averagecompliance of over 97 percent. The remaining 20 percent werenot taking any study pills. Thus, in the beta carotene group,78 percent of the study pills were reported as still being taken;in the placebo group, 6 percent of the physicians reported takingsupplemental beta carotene or vitamin A.
To assess the validity of reported compliance with the assignedtreatment, we measured plasma beta carotene concentrations inblood obtained at unannounced visits to study participants'offices in three geographic areas.14 Those assigned to receivebeta carotene had significantly higher concentrations than thosegiven placebo (1.2 vs. 0.3 mg per liter [2.24 vs. 0.56 mmolper liter], P<0.001). Only one participant assigned to theplacebo group had a plasma beta carotene concentration equalto the mean in the beta carotene group, and he reported takinga beta carotene supplement. In addition, there was a highlysignificant correlation between the subjects' reports of theircompliance with the study regimen and their plasma beta caroteneconcentrations (r = 0.69, P<0.001).
Confirmation of End Points
When a relevant end point was reported, we requested writtenconsent to review the participant's medical records. Detailswere requested from hospitals and treating physicians. Reportsof malignant neoplasms, cardiovascular disease, or death wereconsidered refuted or confirmed only after the examination ofall available information by an end-points committee made upof two internists, a cardiologist, and a neurologist, all ofwhom were blinded to the treatment assignments. When writtenconsent or the relevant records could not be obtained, a reportedevent was not classified as confirmed. So far, medical recordshave been obtained and reviewed for over 95 percent of the eventsreported as of October 24, 1995. Unless otherwise indicated,the analyses reported here for the main end points include allevents that have not been refuted by review of the medical records,since most of the events reported by participating doctors willeventually be confirmed. In fact, 95 percent of the events thathave not been refuted have so far been confirmed. Furthermore,all analyses were repeated with only confirmed events included,and the results were virtually identical to those without theexclusion of events not yet confirmed for all time periods.(We have also presented data on major end points based onlyon confirmed events.)
Reported cases of malignant neoplasm required confirmation bypathology report. Diagnoses of nonfatal myocardial infarctionwere confirmed with the use of World Health Organization criteria.15Nonfatal stroke was defined as a typical neurologic deficit,either sudden or rapid in onset, that lasted more than 24 hoursand was attributed to a cerebrovascular event. Death due toa cardiovascular cause was confirmed by convincing evidenceof a cardiovascular mechanism from available sources, includingdeath certificates, hospital records, and (for death outsidethe hospital) observers' accounts.
The primary end point for the beta carotene component of thetrial was any type of malignant neoplasm except nonmelanomaskin cancer. Malignant neoplasms diagnosed within two yearsof randomization were considered separately, as specified inadvance, since many of these may have been present as preclinicaldisease at base line. For the end points of malignant neoplasm,myocardial infarction, and stroke, only the first end pointin each category reported by a participant was counted. Forexample, if a participant reported having a malignant neoplasm,no subsequently diagnosed case was counted in the analyses oftotal malignant neoplasms, although that physician continuedto be followed for cardiovascular disease and mortality.
Statistical Analysis
The Cox proportional-hazards model was used to estimate therelative risk of an end point among those randomly assignedto beta carotene as compared with those assigned to placebo,with adjustment for age at base line and, during the first fiveyears, random assignment to the aspirin or placebo group inthe aspirin component of the trial. Controlling for assignmentwith respect to aspirin did not change the estimates of relativerisk, nor did the participants' assignment with respect to aspirinmaterially alter the effect of beta carotene on any of the primaryend points. For each relative risk, the 95 percent confidenceinterval and two-sided P value were calculated. As expectedin a large, randomized trial, the distribution of base-linecharacteristics was virtually identical in the beta caroteneand placebo groups.16
Results
Malignant Neoplasms
As shown in Table 1 and Figure 1, after an average of 12 yearsof treatment and follow-up, there was no significant effectof beta carotene on the primary end point of all cases of malignantneoplasm (1273 cases in the beta carotene group vs. 1293 inthe placebo group; relative risk, 0.98; 95 percent confidenceinterval, 0.91 to 1.06). When the period of risk was subdividedaccording to years of follow-up, there was still no statisticallysignificant benefit or harm, even after five or more years oftreatment and follow-up. When these analyses were repeated withonly confirmed events included, the relative risks were virtuallyidentical for all time periods, including five or more years(Table 1).
Table 1. Cases of Malignant Neoplasm in the Beta Carotene Component of the Physicians' Health Study, According to Treatment Group and Years of Follow-up.
Figure 1. Incidence of Malignant Neoplasms, Cardiovascular Events, and Death from All Causes in the Beta Carotene and Placebo Groups.
All types of malignant neoplasm except nonmelanoma skin cancer are included. Cardiovascular events included nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, and death from cardiovascular causes. The shaded areas indicate deaths.
Similarly, there was no statistically significant benefit orharm due to beta carotene with respect to cancer of the lung(82 cases in the beta carotene group vs. 88 in the placebo group),colon and rectum (167 vs. 174), prostate (520 vs. 527), stomach(19 vs. 21), pancreas (29 vs. 21), or brain (25 vs. 31) or formelanoma (64 vs. 73), leukemia (35 vs. 42), or lymphoma (86vs. 80). With respect to bladder cancer, there were 62 casesin the beta carotene group and 41 in the placebo group; withrespect to thyroid cancer, there were 16 in the beta carotenegroup and 2 in the placebo group. After adjustment for multiplecomparisons, however, neither of these differences was statisticallysignificant at the 0.05 level. In fact, previous observationalstudies of bladder cancer17 and thyroid cancer18 had suggesteda possible protective effect of foods rich in beta carotene.There was no significant effect of beta carotene on the numberof deaths due to all malignant neoplasms (386 vs. 380) (Table 1)or deaths due to lung cancer (63 vs. 62).
Cardiovascular Events
There was no statistically significant benefit or harm frombeta carotene with respect to the number of myocardial infarctions(468 in the beta carotene group vs. 489 in the placebo group),strokes (367 vs. 382), deaths due to cardiovascular causes (338vs. 313), all important cardiovascular events (967 vs. 972),or deaths from all causes (979 vs. 968) (Table 2 and Figure 1).Moreover, there was no significant trend toward greaterbenefit or harm with an increasing duration of treatment, evenfive or more years after randomization.
Table 2. Cardiovascular End Points and Total Mortality in the Beta Carotene Component of the Physicians' Health Study, According to Treatment Group.
Effects among Smokers
Although the ATBC and CARET studies raised the possibility thatbeta carotene might cause harm in current smokers, the relativerisk of all malignant neoplasms for participants in the Physicians'Health Study who were smokers in 1982 was 1.05 for the betacarotene group as compared with the placebo group (95 percentconfidence interval, 0.86 to 1.28); that of lung cancer, 0.90(95 percent confidence interval, 0.58 to 1.40); that of deathfrom cardiovascular causes, 1.13 (95 percent confidence interval,0.80 to 1.61); and that of death from all causes, 1.05 (95 percentconfidence interval, 0.86 to 1.29) (Table 3).
Table 3. End Points in the Beta Carotene Component of the Physicians' Health Study, According to Treatment Group and Smoking Status at Base Line.
Side Effects
During 12 years of treatment and follow-up, no major side effectswere significantly associated with assignment to beta carotenesupplementation. Minor side effects included statistically significantincreases in reports of yellowing of the skin (which occurredin 1745 subjects in the beta carotene group as compared with1535 in the placebo group) and minor gastrointestinal symptoms,such as belching associated with the red capsules (275 vs. 124),findings described previously in studies of beta carotene inthis dose and formulation.19
Discussion
This large-scale, randomized trial among apparently healthy,well-nourished men demonstrated no statistically significantbenefit or harm due to 12 years of beta carotene supplementationin terms of malignant neoplasms, cardiovascular disease, ordeath. Because of the long duration of the trial, these findingsare particularly informative, and the large sample and narrowconfidence intervals exclude even a small overall benefit orharm due to beta carotene with a high degree of assurance. However,for individual end points such as stroke, myocardial infarction,and particular types of cancer, the confidence intervals arewider and do not preclude the possibility of a small absoluteeffect. In view of the slow development of many cancers, follow-upin this and the other trials of beta carotene will continueeven though treatment has ceased, in case any benefits or hazardsbecome clear later.
Factors that could, at least in theory, have produced a falsefinding of no benefit or harm include an inadequate dose ofbeta carotene or poor compliance with the assigned treatment.The dose of beta carotene used in the trial, however, placedparticipants in the top few percentiles of the general populationwith respect to usual intake, while minimizing noticeable yellowingof the skin. In our studies of the bioavailability of beta carotene,this alternate-day dosage and formulation increased plasma betacarotene concentrations approximately fourfold.14 This intakeis above the level of dietary beta carotene consumption thatis associated with benefit in observational studies and is roughlyequivalent in effects on blood levels to about two carrots aday (as compared with about three carrots a day in the ATBCstudy and four carrots a day in CARET). Poor compliance (eitherthe failure of those assigned to receive beta carotene to adhereto the study treatment or the use of beta carotene supplementsby those assigned to the placebo group) is not a plausible explanationfor our findings, since there was 85 percent compliance withbeta carotene treatment after 5 years and compliance was still78 percent after 12 years; in addition, the use of beta caroteneor vitamin A supplements was reported by only 6 percent of theplacebo group even by the end of the trial.
Observation bias is an unlikely explanation for our findings,since reports of end points were refuted or confirmed by a committeeof physicians blinded to the participants' treatment assignments,and separate analyses of unrefuted and confirmed events gavevirtually identical results.
Two other large trials of beta carotene or combination treatmentsincorporating beta carotene in well-nourished populations9,10and one in a poorly nourished population20 have been conducted,but they involved only four to six years of treatment, withno post-treatment results yet available. One reported a significantbenefit of beta carotene,20 whereas two found that it had significantadverse effects with respect to cancer rates in the first fewyears.9,10 In our trial, however, we found no evidence eitherof benefit or of increased risk associated with beta carotene,even in the later period. There were 996 malignant neoplasmsdiagnosed five or more years after randomization in the betacarotene group, and 1027 in the placebo group. The absence ofa significant effect on cancer rates in the later part of thestudy suggests that beta carotene supplements are likely tohave little or no effect on cancer rates in the first few yearsafter randomization.
Furthermore, the finding in the two other large trials of possibleharm among smokers given beta carotene9,10 is not consistentwith the results of observational studies, which have, in fact,suggested that fruits and vegetables rich in beta carotene mayprevent lung cancer21,22 and coronary heart disease23 in smokers.Although, in the Physicians' Health Study, participants whowere cigarette smokers in 1982 represented only 11 percent andformer smokers only 39 percent of the total, those assignedto receive beta carotene supplements had no statistically significantdecrease or increase in risks.
In addition to these four large-scale trials, two smaller trialsof beta carotene supplementation in the prevention of recurrentskin cancer19 and colon polyps24 have also been completed. Bothfound that beta carotene had no significant benefit or harm.
Our chief aim in this trial was to provide either a definitivepositive result or an informative null finding on which to baserational public health recommendations. The need for such reliableevidence is underscored by the fact that a substantial amountof money is spent on beta carotene supplements by the generalpublic. Even though beta carotene is ineffective in preventingcancer and cardiovascular disease, other micronutrients maynot be. For example, vitamin E supplementation remains promisingas a preventive intervention.3,23,25 It is currently being testedin a large-scale primary-prevention trial among women26 andin several trials among people at high risk.27 For beta carotene,however, the results of this trial indicate that supplementationis not effective in preventing cancer or cardiovascular diseasein apparently healthy, well-nourished men.
Supported by grants (CA-34944, CA-40360, HL-26490, and HL-34595)from the National Institutes of Health.
We are indebted to the 22,071 study physicians for their dedicatedand conscientious collaboration; to the staff of the Physicians'Health Study, particularly Allison Blodgett, Beth Breen, KennethBreen, Mary Breen, Michael Jonas, Patrick McCormack, GenevaMcNair, Leslie Power, Joanne Crowley Smith, Ayn Stampfer, MiriamSchvartz, M.D., Michelle Sheehey, Martin Van Denburgh, and PhyllisJohnson Wojciechowski; and to the BASF Corporation and Bristol-MyersProducts for their logistic support.
Source Information
From the Divisions of Preventive Medicine (C.H.H., J.E.B., J.E.M., N.R.C., C.B., F.L., J.M.G., P.M.R.) and Cardiovascular Medicine (J.M.G., P.M.R.) and the Channing Laboratory (M.S., B.R., W.W.), Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital; the Department of Ambulatory Care and Prevention, Harvard Medical School (C.H.H., J.E.B., N.R.C.); and the Departments of Epidemiology (C.H.H., J.E.B., M.S., W.W.), Biostatistics (B.R.), and Nutrition (M.S., W.W.), Harvard School of Public Health all in Boston; and the Imperial Cancer Research Fund Clinical Trial Service Unit, University of Oxford, Oxford, England (R.P.).
Address reprint requests to Dr. Hennekens at 900 Commonwealth Ave. E., Boston, MA 02215.
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Appendix
The members of the End Points Committee were S. Goldhaber, C.Kase, M. Stampfer, and J. Taylor (chairman). The members ofthe Data Safety and Monitoring Board were L. Cohen, R. Collins,D. DeMets (chairman), I.C. Henderson, A. LaCroix, and R. Prentice.Ex officio members were F. Ferris, L. Friedman, P. Greenwald,N. Kurinij, M. Perloff, and E. Schron.
Antioxidant Vitamins, Cancer, and Cardiovascular Disease
Doering W., Pietrzik K., DeGrand D., Krinsky N. I., Peacocke M., Russell R. M., Hennekens C. H., Buring J. E., Peto R., Omenn G. S., Kushi L. H., Mink P. J., Folsom A. R., Greenberg E. R., Sporn M. B.
Extract |
Full Text
N Engl J Med 1996;
335:1065-1069, Oct 3, 1996.
Correspondence
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