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Figure 1. Per-Contact Probability of HIV Transmission.
The infectivity ranges for sexual contact are derived from a comprehensive review of the literature (lower and upper bounds are from modeling per-contact transmission in different study populations with different modeling techniques). Each infectivity estimate for the other routes of infection originates from one representative study. The routes of infection are as follows: sexual intercourse, with indicating female-to-male transmission,2,3 indicating male-to-female transmission,2,4 and indicating male-to-male transmission5,6; needle stick7; needle sharing8; transmission from mother to infant with9 and without10 perinatal zidovudine treatment; and transfusion.11
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Royce et al., 
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