Background Patients can have several illnesses concurrently,yet some of these diseases may be neglected if one problem consumesattention. We conducted a population-based analysis in Ontario,Canada where universal health insurance is provided to determine whether unrelated disorders are less likelyto be treated in patients with chronic diseases.
Methods We studied the 1,344,145 residents of Ontario in 1995who were 65 or older and eligible to receive prescription medicationsfree of charge as part of the Ontario Drug Benefit program.Patients with diabetes mellitus were identified by prescriptionsfor insulin, pulmonary emphysema by prescriptions for ipratropiumbromide, and psychotic syndromes by prescriptions for haloperidol.For each chronic disease, we selected an unrelated treatment:estrogen-replacement therapy for patients with diabetes mellitus,lipid-lowering medications for those with pulmonary emphysema,and medical treatment of arthritis for those with psychoticsyndromes.
Results The 30,669 patients with diabetes mellitus were lesslikely to receive estrogen-replacement therapy than the othersubjects in the study (2.4 percent vs. 5.9 percent, P<0.001).The disease was associated with a 60 percent reduction in theodds of estrogen treatment (odds ratio, 0.40; 95 percent confidenceinterval, 0.37 to 0.43). Findings were similar for the 56,779patients with pulmonary emphysema, who were less likely to receivelipid-lowering medications (odds ratio, 0.69; 95 percent confidenceinterval, 0.67 to 0.72; P<0.001), and the 17,336 patientswith psychotic syndromes, who were less likely to receive medicaltreatments for arthritis (odds ratio, 0.59; 95 percent confidenceinterval, 0.57 to 0.62; P<0.001).
Conclusions In patients 65 or older who have chronic medicaldiseases and who receive prescription medications free of charge,unrelated disorders are undertreated. Clinicians caring forpatients with chronic diseases should remain alert to otherdisorders and minimize the number of missed opportunities fortreating them.
Mother Nature has no mercy. As a consequence, the presence ofone disease usually provides no immunity against others. Giventhe laws of probability, the coincidental occurrence of twounrelated diseases in one patient must happen often in a largepopulation. However, the laws of probability are not intuitivelyobvious.1,2 One common error in particular is the misconceptionthat bad luck tends to be followed by good luck (a pattern ofreasoning termed the gambler's fallacy).3,4,5,6 In medicine,this misconception might create a belief that unusual coincidencesare extremely unlikely in every individual patient. Such a beliefcan be reinforced by Occam's razor, a scientific canon thaturges thoughtful investigators to use the simplest explanationpossible to explain all the facts observed.7
Research in nonmedical situations has found that reasoning maybe inconsistent even when one is confronted by two clearly separateproblems. For example, a $200 cost seems less expensive whenplaced in the context of a $20,000 expenditure than when consideredin isolation.8,9 Such decreased cost-consciousness helps explainwhy consumers sometimes make imprudent choices, such as purchasingan overpriced radio when buying a reasonably priced automobile.10More generally, secondary problems may receive unduly littleattention when they occur at the same time as another, largerproblem. As a consequence, people may underestimate the importanceof multiple concurrent diseases even if they understand thelaws of probability.
Medical training encourages clinicians to consider a broad differentialdiagnosis when treating the individual patient. One classicdictum states: "Even psychiatric patients can have surgicaldiseases." However, we postulate that fundamental mistakes inreasoning are not eliminated by formal medical training. Clinicians,that is, are neither especially vul-nerable to nor especiallyprotected from the errors that occur in nonmedical situations.Our specific hypothesis is that patients are less likely toreceive treatment for selected disorders if they have a chronicmedical disease than if they do not have a chronic medical disease.To address this question, we analyzed medical treatments ina setting in which there is universal access to care and nofinancial charges for patients.
Methods
Setting and Patients
We selected residents of Ontario, Canada, in 1995 who receivedprescription medications free of charge as part of the OntarioDrug Benefit program. This group included all residents 65 yearsof age or older, regardless of whether they were receiving homecare benefits, were residents of long-term care facilities,or were living independently in the community. Ontario was chosenbecause it is the largest Canadian province (with about onethird of the country's population), and 1995 was chosen becauseit was the most recent year for which comprehensive data wereavailable. In 1995, Ontario had a population of 11,008,400,with 25,624 licensed physicians, 6201 licensed dentists, and$3.5 billion in Ontario Drug Benefit expenditures.11
Chronic Medical Diseases
We selected three chronic systemic medical diseases that werecomplicated to manage and identifiable through medication prescriptions.Patients with diabetes mellitus were identified by any prescriptionfor insulin, patients with pulmonary emphysema were identifiedby any prescription for ipratropium bromide, and patients withpsychotic syndromes were identified by any prescription forhaloperidol. In each analysis, every patient was counted onceas having or not having received the medication. These criteriarendered the identification procedure prone to false negativeresults (some patients with emphysema do not receive ipratropiumbromide) and false positive results (some patients without emphysemareceive ipratropium bromide). These two misclassification errorstend to decrease the power of statistical comparisons and canbias the analysis toward a finding of no differences even whensuch differences might exist.
Specific Unrelated Treatments
For each chronic medical disease we selected an unrelated treatmentthat satisfied the following criteria. First, the treatmentwas not directly related to either the pathogenesis or the managementof the chronic disease. Second, the treatment was not indirectlyrelated to the chronic disease through a shared underlying predisposingfactor. Third, the treatment was relatively straightforwardbut perhaps less important than therapy for the chronic disease.Fourth, the treatment was not trivial and would require follow-up.The specific treatments identified were estrogen-replacementtherapy for the patients with diabetes mellitus, lipid-loweringmedications for the patients with pulmonary emphysema, and medicalarthritis treatment for the patients with psychotic syndromes.These three pairings were selected in advance, and the subsequentcomparisons were prespecified.
We used a relatively exhaustive approach to identify the unrelatedtreatments in the study patients. Estrogen-replacement therapycould be oral or transdermal and included conjugated estrogens,esterified estrogens, 17-estradiol, and combinations includingethinyl estradiol. Lipid-lowering medications included cholestyramine,colestipol, clofibrate, bezafibrate, fenofibrate, gemfibrozil,lovastatin, pravastatin, simvastatin, and fluvastatin. Medicaltreatment for arthritis included auranofin, aurothioglucose,gold sodium thiomalate, diclofenac, etodolac, fenoprofen, floctafenine,flurbiprofen, hydroxychloroquine, ibuprofen, indomethacin, ketoprofen,ketorolac, naproxen, piroxicam, sulindac, tenoxicam, tiaprofenicacid, and tolmetin.
Supplementary Analyses
We conducted two additional analyses to test for the lack ofa difference where we expected no difference. To do so, we focusedon unrelated treatments that were distinctive. In the first,we selected patients who had a history of breast cancer (identifiedby prescriptions for tamoxifen) and tested for glaucoma treatment.Glaucoma treatment included ophthalmic preparations of betaxolol,carbachol, dipivefrin, echothiophate, levobunolol, pilocarpine,and timolol. Our hypothesis was that ophthalmologic disordersmight be sufficiently distinct to be treated despite the previouscancer. In the second, we selected patients with hypothyroidism(identified by prescriptions for thyroxine) and tested for antibiotictreatment. Antibiotic treatment included any oral or parenteralantibiotic formulation. Our hypothesis was that acute infectionsmight be sufficiently distinct to be treated despite the coexistingmetabolic disorder. Both these pairings were selected in advance,and the subsequent comparisons were prespecified.
Confidentiality and Identification of Medications
This study was approved by the ethics committee of the SunnybrookHealth Science Centre and was conducted with use of protocolsfrom the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences in Ontariofor safeguarding confidentiality. Patients were identified byunique numbers encrypted in a manner that allowed linkages amongdata sets yet preserved anonymity. Medications were coded byDrug Identification Number and identified from claims filedelectronically by pharmacies. To avoid errors due to incorrectlyentered codes, we created an in-house master conversion programthat allowed programmers to obtain all relevant codes by selectingthe medication by its generic name. Analyses were performedon a Sparc 1000 UNIX system computer using SAS software (version6.11) that required about five hours of mainframe time for asingle comparison.
Statistical Analysis
All comparisons were two-tailed, were expressed as odds ratios,and involved the full data base. Calculations of sample sizeestimated that each analysis would have sufficient power toidentify an absolute difference of about 1 percent or more inthe proportion of patients receiving treatment. We used thechi-square test to compare the proportions of patients withand patients without the chronic medical disease who were receivingthe designated unrelated treatment. In multivariate comparisonswe used logistic regression to adjust for imbalances in ageand sex (with the exception of the evaluation of estrogen-replacementtherapy, which excluded all the men).12 As a check for reliability,we replicated all the 1995 comparisons with data from 1990,using separate Ontario Drug Benefit data from 1990 that wereobtained, coded, and analyzed by the same methods used in themain analyses.
Results
The study included 1,344,145 patients (56 percent were women,and the mean age was 74 years). Overall, 1,226,064 of them (91percent) received at least one prescription medication (58 percentof these patients were women, and the mean age was 74). Collectively,30,335,555 separate prescriptions were filled during 1995, representingwork by 25,849 physicians and dentists. If each prescriptionwas for one month of treatment and each medication was prescribedfor a full year, these data suggest that the average patientreceived about two medications in 1995 (30,335,555÷1,344,145÷12).As in other population-based studies of drug use, the most commonprescriptions were for acetaminophen with codeine, ranitidine,digoxin, and furosemide.13,14
Overall, 30,669 patients had diabetes mellitus (55 percent werewomen, and the mean age was 74). These patients were less likelyto receive estrogen-replacement therapy than other patients(2.4 percent vs. 5.9 percent, P<0.001). In other words, diabetesmellitus was associated with a 60 percent reduction in the oddsof receiving estrogen treatment (Table 1). The observed relativereduction persisted after adjustment for age and after the analysiswas restricted to women (99.5 percent of the patients who receiveda prescription for estrogen were women). Moreover, the relativereduction was found for both oral and transdermal preparations.Analyses of patients in 1990 revealed a similar relative reductionin the probability of treatment.
Overall, 56,779 patients had pulmonary emphysema (46 percentwere women, and the mean age was 76). These patients were lesslikely to receive lipid-lowering medications than the otherpatients (6.3 percent vs. 8.7 percent, P<0.001). In otherwords, emphysema was associated with a 31 percent reductionin the odds of receiving lipid-lowering treatment. The relativereduction persisted after adjustments for age and sex, was foundfor both statin and non-statin agents, and was also presentin 1990.
Similarly, 17,336 patients had psychotic syndromes (64 percentwere women, and the mean age was 80). These patients were lesslikely to receive medical treatment for arthritis than the otherpatients (18 percent vs. 27 percent, P<0.001). In other words,there was a 41 percent reduction in the odds of treatment. Therelative reduction persisted after adjustment for age and sex,was found for both nonsteroidal antiinflammatory agents anddisease-modifying antirheumatic drugs, and was also presentin 1990.
The relative neglect of unrelated disorders was not a universalfinding. The 11,094 patients who had breast cancer were justas likely to receive glaucoma treatment as the other patients(5.1 percent vs. 4.8 percent, P>0.20). The 140,460 patientswho had hypothyroidism were slightly more likely to receivetreatment for acute infections than the other patients (56 percentvs. 54 percent, P<0.001). Apparently, these unrelated diseaseswere distinct enough that patients received treatment regardlessof the occurrence of the corresponding chronic disease.
We selected disease and treatment pairs that were intended tobe unrelated. Different pairings yielded different results andone positive association (Table 2). Patients with diabetes mellituswere more likely to receive lipid-lowering therapy than otherpatients, as would be anticipated because hyperglycemia is associatedwith dyslipidemia. However, the observed relative increase of38 percent was smaller than the relative increase of roughly100 percent expected on the basis of some surveillance studiesin epidemiology.15,16,17 Pulmonary emphysema was associatedwith a 29 percent relative reduction in estrogen treatment eventhough smoking is a risk factor for emphysema, heart disease,and osteoporosis.18 Patients with pulmonary emphysema had onlya 7 percent relative reduction in medical treatment for arthritis,possibly because symptoms of lung disease are distinct fromsymptoms of arthritis. Patients with psychotic syndromes wereconsistently unlikely to receive any of the three unrelatedtreatments.
Our most important finding is the inverse correlation betweenthe presence of a chronic disease and the likelihood of treatmentof an unrelated disorder. In no case did the presence of thechronic disease justify withholding an effective medical treatment.The results are compatible with the theory that one diseaseprovides protection against other diseases, but this theoryis unlikely to be correct, given medical pathophysiology andshared underlying predisposing factors.19,20,21,22 Instead,our findings suggest a shortfall in health care specifically,that unrelated disorders are relatively neglected in patientswith chronic medical diseases.
Our work has several limitations, of which three merit emphasis.First, the study was not a randomized trial: it is not possibleto assign patients randomly to have or not to have a chronicdisease. Subtle confounding could contribute to and possiblyjustify the observed differences. However, imbalances relatedto age, sex, insurance status or carrier, ability to pay, orrandom chance would not explain the findings. Second, optimalrates of secondary treatments are controversial. In theory,our findings could be explained by postulating the overtreatmentof patients who do not have chronic diseases. If true, thispostulate could represent a potentially more common failurein medical decision making. Finally, the mechanism underlyingthe results remains a topic for future research in particular,the question of whether the second disease is not detected inthe presence of the first or whether it is detected but nottreated.
The observed results might arise from several sources. Patientswith chronic diseases may be exhausted and reluctant to acceptmultiple interventions. Clinicians are often busy and may striveto keep care simple, particularly if they do not have relativelymore time for the patients with relatively more complicatedconditions. A chronic disease particularly chronic psychosis may also limit communication between patient and doctor.Universal insurance coverage could also contribute if the implicitgoal of equity is achieved by doing something for all but alot for none. The results, however, cannot be attributed eitherto a tendency toward prescribing multiple medications for theelderly or to barriers in access to medical care, both of whichwork against finding any negative associations.23,24,25 Similarly,the results cannot be attributed to fraud in which more thanone person uses the same health insurance card.26,27
Unrelated treatments are not always indicated for patients whohave chronic diseases. Chronic diseases are sometimes associatedwith reduced life expectancy, making long-term preventive therapyunrewarding. Adding supplementary medications often increasesthe risk of unwanted drug interactions and the potential foran adverse event. Prescribing additional medications for anunrelated disorder might also alter a patient's compliance withessential medications and indirectly cause harm. Time constraints,communication problems, the patient's preferences, and the prioritiesof the specialist involved sometimes make it difficult to addressmore than one problem effectively in any one patient. Finally,it is often sensible to postpone minor treatments until majorproblems are resolved.
The unrelated treatments we chose had important implicationsfor each selected chronic disease. Patients with diabetes mellitusare at increased risk for atherosclerosis and may be particularlylikely to benefit from estrogen-replacement therapy.28,29 Thereserve capacity of patients with pulmonary emphysema is seriouslycompromised, and they may be unable to tolerate even a smallcardiovascular event.30,31 Patients with psychotic syndromesare often sensitive to discomfort and theoretically might havefurther worsening of their mental status as a result of jointpain.32,33 In all three examples, inadvertent undertreatmentmay have consequences. Furthermore, these examples are similarto other reported cases of mistakes in the care of patientswho have more than one illness.34,35,36
Our findings highlight a role for clinicians who can providea comprehensive approach to patient care. Contrary to popularopinion, such a comprehensive approach was not fully evidentin the mid-1990s under the Canadian system of universal healthinsurance. Primary care physicians may be suited to this roleif the diversity of their practices makes them responsive todiverse issues. Yet specific training may be required to overcomefundamental pitfalls in reasoning.37 Alternatively, a healthcare system might look for programs that ensure comprehensivecare and avoid focusing solely on the management of well-definedsingle problems, yet minimize some failures of individual judgment.Although chronic diseases are frequent and unrelated disordersare common, the inevitable coincidences are relatively neglectedin clinical practice.
Supported by a career scientist award from the Ontario Ministryof Health (to Dr. Redelmeier), a fellowship award from the MedicalResearch Council of Canada (to Dr. Booth), and a project grantfrom the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences in Ontario.
We are indebted to Florence To for programming assistance andto Timothy Evans, C. David Naylor, David Sackett, Carol Schwartz,Steven Shumak, Sharon Straus, Robert Wachter, and J. Ivan Williamsfor helpful comments on specific points.
Source Information
From the Department of Medicine, University of Toronto (D.A.R., G.L.B.); the Clinical Epidemiology and Health Care Research Program, Sunnybrook Health Science Centre (D.A.R., S.H.T., G.L.B.); and the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences in Ontario (D.A.R., S.H.T.) all in Toronto.
Address reprint requests to Dr. Redelmeier at the Sunnybrook Health Science Centre, G-151, 2075 Bayview Ave., Toronto, ON M4N 3M5, Canada.
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