Endogenous Hormones and the Risk of Hip and Vertebral Fractures among Older Women
Steven R. Cummings, M.D., Warren S. Browner, M.D., M.P.H., Douglas Bauer, M.D., Katie Stone, Ph.D., Kristine Ensrud, M.D., M.P.H., Sophie Jamal, M.D., Bruce Ettinger, M.D., for The Study of Osteoporotic Fractures Research Group
Background and Methods In postmenopausal women, the serum concentrationsof endogenous sex hormones and vitamin D might influence therisk of hip and vertebral fractures. In a study of a cohortof women 65 years of age or older, we compared the serum hormoneconcentrations at base line in 133 women who subsequently hadhip fractures and 138 women who subsequently had vertebral fractureswith those in randomly selected control women from the samecohort. Women who were taking estrogen were excluded. The resultswere adjusted for age and weight.
Results The women with undetectable serum estradiol concentrations(<5 pg per milliliter [18 pmol per liter]) had a relativerisk of 2.5 for subsequent hip fracture (95 percent confidenceinterval, 1.4 to 4.6) and subsequent vertebral fracture (95percent confidence interval, 1.4 to 4.2), as compared with thewomen with detectable serum estradiol concentrations. Serumconcentrations of sex hormonebinding globulin that were1.0 µg per deciliter (34.7 nmol per liter) or higher wereassociated with a relative risk of 2.0 for hip fracture (95percent confidence interval, 1.1 to 3.9) and 2.3 for vertebralfracture (95 percent confidence interval, 1.2 to 4.4). Womenwith both undetectable serum estradiol concentrations and serumsex hormonebinding globulin concentrations of 1 µgper deciliter or more had a relative risk of 6.9 for hip fracture(95 percent confidence interval, 1.5 to 32.0) and 7.9 for vertebralfracture (95 percent confidence interval, 2.2 to 28.0). Forthose with low serum 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D concentrations(23 pg per milliliter [55 pmol per liter]), the risk of hipfracture increased by a factor of 2.1 (95 percent confidenceinterval, 1.2 to 3.5).
Conclusions Postmenopausal women with undetectable serum estradiolconcentrations and high serum concentrations of sex hormonebindingglobulin have an increased risk of hip and vertebral fracture.
In postmenopausal women, vertebral fractures are often attributedto low estrogen production, and hip fractures to secondary hyperparathyroidismdue to age-related declines in calcium intake and in calciumabsorption mediated by 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D (1,25(OH)2vitaminD).1,2 The results of retrospective casecontrol studiesof the association between these hormones and the incidenceof hip or vertebral fracture are conflicting, because of thealterations in serum hormone or vitamin D concentrations thatresult from fracture, the selection of nonrepresentative caseand control subjects, and the use of insensitive assays forserum estradiol.3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11
To determine the effects of endogenous hormones on the riskof hip and vertebral fractures, we prospectively studied a largecohort of women who were 65 years of age or older. We comparedbase-line serum concentrations of selected hormones in womenwho later had hip or vertebral fractures with those in randomlyselected control women from the same cohort.
Methods
From 1986 through 1988, we recruited women 65 years of age orolder who lived in the community and who were identified frompopulation-based listings in Baltimore, Minneapolis, Pittsburgh,and Portland, Oregon; 9704 of these women were enrolled in theStudy of Osteoporotic Fractures.12 We excluded black women (becauseof their low risk of hip fracture), women who had undergonebilateral hip replacement, and those who were unable to walkwithout help.
Clinical Studies
At base line, the women were asked whether they were takingestrogen, calcium supplements, or multivitamins containing vitaminD, about their cigarette-smoking habits, and about their dietarycalcium intake (by means of a food-frequency questionnaire).13Lateral x-ray films of the thoracic and lumbar spine were obtained,and bone mineral density of the heel was measured by single-photonabsorptiometry (OsteoAnalyzer, SiemensOsteon, Wahiawa,Hawaii); the mean coefficient of variation between clinicalcenters for this measurement was 1.2 percent.14 No recommendationsabout treatment were made. Blood was drawn between 8 a.m. and2 p.m. after the women had followed a fat-free diet overnight,and serum was immediately frozen at 20°C. The sampleswere shipped to the Biomedical Research Institute (Rockville,Md.), where they were stored in aliquots in liquid nitrogen(at 190°C).
Identification of Fractures
The women were contacted by mail every four months to ascertaintheir vital status and to identify the occurrence of fractures;follow-up was more than 99 percent complete. Hip fractures wereconfirmed by a review of radiographs obtained at the time ofhospitalization after the fracture. Follow-up lateral x-rayfilms of the thoracic and lumbar spine were obtained for 79percent of the women who were still alive at 3.7 years. Fractureswere identified by quantitative morphometry by study personnelwho were unaware of the base-line assay results. A new fracturewas considered to have occurred if there was a decrease of 20percent and 4 mm in any vertical dimension of one or more thoracicor lumbar vertebrae.15,16
Selection of Case Patients and Controls
We excluded women who were taking estrogen therapy at base line.Using the casecohort approach,17 we randomly selected133 of the 332 women in the cohort of 9704 who had a first hipfracture during a maximum of 5.9 years of follow-up after thebase-line assessment. Similarly, we randomly selected 138 ofthe 389 women who had a new vertebral fracture. We also randomlyselected 359 women from the original cohort to serve as controls.Four of these 359 women were excluded from the analyses of hipfractures because they had had a hip fracture before the base-linestudies were conducted. Eighty-one of the 359 women were excludedfrom the analyses of vertebral fractures because spine filmswere unavailable at follow-up. This random sample included 12of the 133 women selected from among those with hip fracturesand 14 of the 138 women selected from among those with vertebralfractures; they were counted as case patients in the analysesof hip and vertebral fractures, respectively. We did not excludecontrol women who had a history of vertebral fractures at baseline or who later took estrogen.
Biochemical Analyses
Estradiol and estrone were measured in serum by radioimmunoassayafter extraction and separation by liquid chromatography; theinterassay coefficient of variation for estradiol ranged from8 percent to 12.5 percent and that for estrone from 6.2 percentto 7.0 percent. The limit of detection was 5 pg per milliliter(18 pmol per liter) for estradiol and 4 pg per milliliter (15pmol per liter) for estrone. Serum testosterone was measuredby radioimmunoassay after extraction and aluminum oxide columnchromatography, with an interassay coefficient of variationof 6.1 to 13.4 percent. The testosterone-binding capacity ofsex hormonebinding globulin in serum was measured bymeans of a displacement technique (interassay coefficient ofvariation, 4.1 to 14.4 percent). Serum free testosterone wasmeasured with an ammonium sulfate precipitation procedure18,19(coefficient of variation, 10.7 to 15.5 percent). All theseanalyses were carried out at Endocrine Sciences (Calabasas Hills,Calif.).
Serum parathyroid hormone was measured by immunoradiometricassay, and serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)vitamin D) and 1,25(OH)2vitaminD by radioimmunoassay. The respective interassay coefficientsof variation were 15.0 percent and 12.4 percent. Serum creatininewas measured with use of an automated analyzer. These analyseswere carried out at the Calciotropic Hormone Reference Laboratoryof the University of California, San Francisco.
All assays included coded samples of serum from case patientsand controls and were performed in 1994 and 1995, seven to eightyears after collection. After the selection of the case andcontrol women, samples were sent directly to the analytic laboratorywithout thawing. Initial plans called for measurements of serumestrone but not estradiol; we therefore measured estradiol inonly 247 of the 359 women randomly selected from the cohortas controls, 89 of the 133 women who had hip fractures, and96 of the 138 women who had vertebral fractures.
We determined the stability of several hormones in serum from51 postmenopausal women by analyzing serum samples both at baseline and after 3.5 years of storage at 190°C. Thecorrelations between the two measurements were as follows: 25(OH)vitaminD, r=0.88 (P<0.001); testosterone, r=0.99 (P<0.001); andestrone, r=0.98 (P<0.001).
Statistical Analysis
We used logistic-regression analysis (SAS Institute, Cary, N.C.)to analyze predictors of vertebral fractures and proportional-hazardsanalysis that took account of the casecohort samplingdesign (Epicure, Hirosoft International, Seattle) to analyzepredictors of hip fracture. Except where noted, the resultsof all analyses were adjusted for age and weight and are reportedas relative risks. Population attributable risk was calculatedby the following formula: p(RR1) / [px(RR1)+1],where p is the prevalence of a given risk factor and RR is therelative risk of fracture associated with it.20
Results
As compared with the controls, the women who had hip or vertebralfractures during the study were older, were lighter, and hadlower calcaneal bone density at base line (Table 1). The hipfractures occurred an average of 3.9 years (range, 0.2 to 5.9)after the base-line studies. The vertebral fractures were identifiedon x-ray films of the spine obtained an average of 3.7 years(range, 1.6 to 4.9) after the base-line studies.
Table 1. Characteristics of the Women with First Hip or New Vertebral Fractures and the Controls.
Serum Sex Hormones
Among the 247 women randomly selected from the cohort as controlsin whom serum estradiol was measured, 81 (33 percent) had undetectableconcentrations (<5 pg per milliliter). After adjustment forweight and age, the women with undetectable serum estradiolconcentrations had a greater risk of hip and vertebral fracturethan the women who had detectable concentrations (Table 2 andFigure 1). The women with serum estradiol concentrations from5 to 9 pg per milliliter (18 to 33 pmol per liter) had approximatelya 60 percent lower risk of hip fracture (relative risk, 0.4;95 percent confidence interval, 0.2 to 0.7) and approximatelya 60 percent lower risk of vertebral fracture (relative risk,0.4; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.3 to 0.8) than the womenwhose serum estradiol concentrations were below 5 pg per milliliter.We estimated that an undetectable serum estradiol concentrationwas associated with an attributable risk of 33 percent for hipfractures and 32 percent for vertebral fractures.
Table 2. Adjusted Associations between Serum Hormone Concentrations and Vitamin Levels and the Risk of Hip or Vertebral Fracture in Postmenopausal Women.
Figure 1. Serum Estradiol Concentration at Base Line and Age-Adjusted Risk of Subsequent Hip or Vertebral Fracture in Postmenopausal Women.
There were 317 women in the hip-fracture analysis and 282 in the vertebral-fracture analysis. The reference group consisted of the women with serum estradiol concentrations below 5 pg per milliliter. To convert values for estradiol to picomoles per liter, multiply by 3.67. P for trend <0.01 for hip fracture and <0.005 for vertebral fracture.
The risk of hip fracture increased with increasing serum concentrationsof sex hormonebinding globulin (Figure 2). After adjustmentfor age, each increase of 1.0 µg per deciliter (34.7 nmolper liter) in the serum concentration of sex hormonebindingglobulin was associated with a relative risk of 1.4 (95 percentconfidence interval, 1.2 to 1.8) for hip fracture and 1.7 (95percent confidence interval, 1.3 to 2.1) for vertebral fracture.For hip fracture, this effect appeared to be partly mediatedby weight (Table 2).
Figure 2. Serum Concentrations of Sex HormoneBinding Globulin at Base Line (in Quintiles) and Age-Adjusted Risk of Subsequent Hip or Vertebral Fracture in Postmenopausal Women.
There were 476 women in the hip-fracture analysis and 399 in the vertebral-fracture analysis. The reference group consisted of the women with values in the lowest quintile (<1.0 µg per deciliter). To convert values for sex hormonebinding globulin to nanomoles per liter, multiply by 34.7. P for trend <0.05 for hip fracture and <0.001 for vertebral fracture.
Among the 244 women who were randomly selected from the cohortin whom both serum estradiol and serum sex hormonebindingglobulin were measured, 63 (26 percent) had both an undetectableserum estradiol concentration and a serum sex hormonebindingglobulin concentration of 1 µg per deciliter or higher.This combination was associated with an age-adjusted increasein risk by a factor of 14 for hip fracture (95 percent confidenceinterval, 3.0 to 62.0) and by a factor of 12 for vertebral fracture(95 percent confidence interval, 3.3 to 41.0). Adjustment forweight blunted these associations somewhat for both hip fracture(relative risk, 6.9; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.5 to32.0) and vertebral fracture (relative risk, 7.9; 95 percentconfidence interval, 2.2 to 28.0). The population attributablerisks for this combination of factors were 60 percent for hipfracture and 64 percent for vertebral fracture.
Women with serum estrone values in the lowest quintile (14 pgper milliliter [52 pmol per liter]) had a lower risk of vertebralfracture than women with higher concentrations (Table 2). Therewas a moderate correlation between serum estrone and estradiolconcentrations (r=0.6), and low serum estrone concentrationscontinued to be associated with a decreased risk of vertebralfracture after adjustment for estradiol concentrations (Table 3).
Table 3. Hormonal Predictors of Hip and Vertebral Fracture in Postmenopausal Women, According to Multivariable Models.
Women with serum free testosterone concentrations in the lowestquintile (0.7 pg per milliliter [2.4 pmol per liter]) had anincreased risk of hip fracture (Table 2). However, this factorwas no longer significant after adjustment for the serum estradiolconcentration (relative risk, 1.2; 95 percent confidence interval,0.7 to 2.4).
Serum Vitamin D Concentrations
Women whose serum concentration of 1,25(OH)2-vitamin D was inthe lowest quintile (23 pg per milliliter [55 pmol per liter])had a significant increase in the risk of hip fracture (relativerisk, 2.1; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.2 to 3.5); therewas no further decrease in the risk of hip fracture with higherserum 1,25(OH)2vitamin D concentrations. This association remainedsignificant after adjustment for the serum concentrations ofestradiol and sex hormonebinding globulin (Table 3);further adjustment for serum creatinine made no appreciabledifference (relative risk, 2.3; 95 percent confidence interval,1.0 to 5.2). There was no significant relation between serum1,25(OH)2vitamin D concentrations and the risk of vertebralfracture (Table 2). There were no statistically significantassociations between serum 25(OH)vitamin D or parathyroid hormoneconcentrations and the risk of hip or vertebral fracture (Table 2)whether or not these associations were adjusted for the seasonor for the use or nonuse of vitamin D supplements.
Adjustment for Bone Density
Adjustment for calcaneal bone density only slightly weakenedthe association between serum estradiol and sex hormonebindingglobulin concentrations and the risk of hip and vertebral fracture(Table 3) and had no substantial effect on the association betweenserum 1,25(OH)2vitamin D concentrations and the risk of hipfracture or between serum estrone concentrations and the riskof vertebral fracture.
Discussion
We found that women 65 or older who had undetectable serum estradiolconcentrations (<5 pg per milliliter) had an increased riskof subsequent hip or vertebral fracture. This association suggeststhat the risk of fractures in these women could be substantiallyreduced with even low-dose estrogen-replacement therapy. Standarddoses of estrogen in postmenopausal women result in serum concentrationsof estradiol that are greater than 40 pg per milliliter (147pmol per liter).21 In women treated shortly after menopause,such doses may prevent bone loss more effectively than lowerdoses,22,23 but in one trial, low-dose estrogen alone preventedbone loss (without causing endometrial hyperplasia).24 Lessis known about the effects of low-dose estrogen in older women;very low doses of estradiol administered transvaginally significantlyincrease bone density.25 There is also a doseresponserelation between endogenous serum estradiol concentrations andthe risk of breast cancer.26,27 Thus, maintaining low, but detectable,serum estrogen concentrations might reduce the risk of fracturewithout increasing the risk of breast and endometrial cancer.
High rates of bone resorption indicate an increased risk ofhip fracture that is independent of bone density at the hip,28perhaps because small cavities are created that decrease bonestrength. The complete absence of estradiol substantially increasesrates of resorption29 and also causes osteocyte death.30 Osteocytesmodulate normal skeletal responses to microscopic bone damageand to strains imposed by weight bearing.31 Osteocyte deathalso appears to be a common feature in elderly women who havehip fractures.32 Thus, low but measurable serum estradiol concentrationsmay decrease the risk of fracture by decreasing bone resorptionor maintaining the viability of osteocytes.
Higher serum concentrations of sex hormonebinding globulin,which binds estradiol and thereby decreases its bioavailability,increase the risk of hip and vertebral fracture. About one quarterof our cohort had both an undetectable serum estradiol concentrationand a serum sex hormonebinding concentration of 1 µgper deciliter or more; this combination indicated a very highrisk of fracture.
The association between high serum estrone concentrations andan increased risk of vertebral fracture is surprising, becauseestrone has effects that are similar to, albeit weaker than,those of estradiol. This result might be a chance finding. However,high serum estrone concentrations also indicate high serum concentrationsof 2-hydroxyestrone, an inactive metabolite that inhibits theactions of estradiol.33 Our results are consistent with theview that vertebral and hip fractures are manifestations ofestradiol deficiency1,2,6,9,34,35 in older, as well as younger,postmenopausal women.36
Hip fractures, but not vertebral fractures, were more commonamong women with relatively low serum 1,25(OH)2vitamin D concentrations.We found no association between the serum concentration of parathyroidhormone or 25(OH)vitamin D and the risk of hip or vertebralfracture. The results of retrospective studies of the relationbetween vitamin D and hip fracture are conflicting.3,11,37,38,39In these studies, however, the serum measurements were madeafter fracture had occurred, and could have been influencedby trauma, hospitalization, or treatment.
Our study has several limitations. The women were elderly, wereambulatory, and almost all were white. The results are basedon a single measurement and may underestimate the true associationsbetween the markers we studied and the risk of fracture. Wemeasured serum total estradiol, not bioavailable estradiol.Despite the large sample, our study had limited power to determinewhether uncommon conditions, such as hyperparathyroidism, influencedthe risk of fracture. Adjustment for bone density of the hipand spine, rather than the calcaneus, might account for moreof the effects of hormones than we estimated.
We conclude that women with serum total estradiol concentrationsbelow 5 pg per milliliter have an increased risk of hip andvertebral fractures. Higher serum concentrations of sex hormonebindingglobulin are also associated with a greater risk of these typesof fracture. Both effects are independent of bone density. Ifthese associations are causal, they would account for a substantialproportion of the hip and vertebral fractures that occur inelderly white women.
Supported by grants (AG05407, AR35582, AG05394, AR35584, andAR35583) from the Public Health Service.
Source Information
From the Departments of Medicine (S.R.C., W.S.B., D.B.) and Epidemiology and Biostatistics (S.R.C., W.S.B., D.B., K.S., S.J.), University of California, San Francisco; the Department of Medicine, Veterans Affairs Medical Center, and the Division of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota both in Minneapolis (K.E.); and the Division of Research, Kaiser Permanente Medical Care Program, Oakland, Calif. (B.E.).
Address reprint requests to Dr. Cummings at Suite 600, 74 New Montgomery St., San Francisco, CA 94143.
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