A Comparison of Two Intensities of Warfarin for the Prevention of Recurrent Thrombosis in Patients with the Antiphospholipid Antibody Syndrome
Mark A. Crowther, M.D., M.Sc., Jeff S. Ginsberg, M.D., Jim Julian, M.Math., Judah Denburg, M.D., Jack Hirsh, M.D., James Douketis, M.D., Carl Laskin, M.D., Paul Fortin, M.D., David Anderson, M.D., M.Sc., Clive Kearon, M.D., Ph.D., Ann Clarke, M.D., William Geerts, M.D., Melissa Forgie, M.D., David Green, M.D., Lorrie Costantini, M.Sc., Wendy Yacura, Sarah Wilson, M.P.H., Michael Gent, D.Sc., and Michael J. Kovacs, M.D.
Background Many patients with the antiphospholipid antibodysyndrome and recurrent thrombosis receive doses of warfarinadjusted to achieve an international normalized ratio (INR)of more than 3.0. However, there are no prospective data tosupport this approach to thromboprophylaxis.
To our knowledge, there have been no randomized trials of theefficacy and safety of high-intensity versus moderate-intensitywarfarin therapy in patients with the antiphospholipid antibodysyndrome. Because increasing the target INR from a range of2.0 to 3.0 to a range of 3.1 to 4.0 is likely to be associatedwith a doubling of the risk of major hemorrhage, it is importantto know whether the higher-intensity treatment is more effective.5,6
To determine whether high-intensity warfarin therapy is requiredin patients with antiphospholipid antibodies and a previousepisode of thrombosis, we undertook a randomized, double-blindtrial to compare long-term warfarin therapy targeted to an INRof 2.0 to 3.0 with therapy targeted to an INR of 3.1 to 4.0.Our hypothesis was that high-intensity warfarin would be moreeffective than moderate-intensity therapy.
The study was approved by the local institutional review boardof each of the 13 participating centers, and all patients providedwritten informed consent before enrollment. Patients were randomizedby means of telephone calls to the study coordinating center.Patients were stratified according to the presence or absenceof previous arterial thromboembolism and according to the clinicalcenter. The randomization sequence was generated with the useof a random-number table and was performed in blocks of two,four, or six patients.
To minimize bias, we tried to ensure that patients, treatingphysicians, and other study personnel and adjudicators wereunaware of the treatment assignments. Hence, INR results wereforwarded to the central warfarin monitors. The warfarin monitorsinstructed the clinical centers about the warfarin dosage andwhen to perform INR testing. Thus, physicians, nurse coordinators,and patients remained unaware of both the assigned intensityof warfarin and the INR achieved. To reduce the risk of unblinding,clinicians were discouraged from performing INR assessmentswhen patients presented with suspected recurrent episodes ofthrombosis until these were confirmed by testing.
After analysis of the trial data, unscheduled INR measurementsthat had been performed by the clinical centers during an episodeof recurrent thrombosis were obtained from the patient's clinicalrecord. If the INR had not been measured on the day of the episode,the reported INR value was the value at the last scheduled visitbefore diagnosis of the episode. Similar strategies for maskingwarfarin therapy have been used successfully in previous clinicaltrials.8,9
Follow-up and Outcomes
Follow-up data were obtained in the clinic or by telephone atthree-month intervals. Patients were seen in the clinic at leasttwice yearly and were asked about symptoms and signs of recurrentthrombosis. Patients were instructed to go to the local emergencydepartment or to contact a study physician if symptoms or signssuggestive of recurrent thrombosis or major bleeding developed.Objective diagnostic testing was performed if a thrombotic eventwas suspected. If the test results were positive, they wereforwarded to the coordinating center.
The primary outcome measure with respect to efficacy was anepisode of recurrent thrombosis (a stroke or transient ischemicattack, myocardial infarction, peripheral arterial thrombosis,cerebral-vein thrombosis, deep-vein thrombosis, or pulmonaryembolism) that was confirmed by adjudication. The primary outcomemeasure with respect to safety was bleeding.
All thrombotic and bleeding events were adjudicated by a blindedcentral adjudication committee of two experts. The criteriafor and classification of these events were prespecified.
Statistical Analysis
Estimation of the required sample size was based on two assumptions:first, that the risk of recurrent thrombosis would be approximately15 percent per year in the group receiving moderate-intensitywarfarin therapy and 2.5 percent per year in the group receivinghigh-intensity warfarin therapy2; and, second, that the averageduration of follow-up would be approximately three years. Withthe use of a two-sided alpha error of 5 percent and a powerof 80 percent, a total of 76 patients (38 per group) would berequired to demonstrate that high-intensity warfarin was moreeffective than moderate-intensity warfarin. To protect againstan underpowered comparison owing to either loss to follow-upor overestimation of the efficacy of high-intensity therapy,the originally planned sample size was increased to a totalof 90 patients.
The primary analysis was based on the intention-to-treat principle.The time to a first recurrent thrombotic event in the two treatmentgroups was compared with the use of the log-rank test. A similaranalysis was planned for bleeding events. Hazard ratios forrecurrent thrombosis were calculated with the use of the Coxproportional-hazards model.
As originally designed, the study called for a minimum of twoyears of follow-up for the 90th and final patient enrolled.Immediately before enrollment of the 90th patient, the steeringcommittee reviewed the total number of thrombotic events thathad been reported to the coordinating center. While remainingunaware of the treatment assignments, the steering committeenoted that the overall rate of thrombosis was much lower thanexpected. To increase both recruitment and the number of patient-yearsof follow-up without prolonging the study, the steering committeeextended enrollment for an additional 18 months and reducedthe duration of follow-up for the final patient enrolled tosix months.
Results
Of 325 patients screened, 207 met the criteria for inclusionin the study, and of these, 42 were excluded. The reasons mostfrequently given for exclusion were pregnancy or planned pregnancy(in nine patients), a high risk of hemorrhage (eight), or previousfailure of moderate-intensity warfarin (six). Fifty-one patientsdeclined participation. Thus, a total of 114 patients were enrolledat 13 clinical centers between February 1998 and May 2001. Thepatients' characteristics were similar in the two groups exceptthat there was a higher proportion of women in the moderate-intensitygroup (Table 1). The average duration of follow-up was 2.7 yearsin the moderate-intensity group and 2.6 years in the high-intensitygroup.
Table 1. Base-Line Characteristics of the Patients.
Eight patients (7.0 percent) from seven clinical centers hadrecurrent thrombosis: 6 (10.7 percent) of the 56 patients assignedto high-intensity warfarin therapy and 2 (3.4 percent) of the58 patients assigned to receive moderate-intensity warfarintherapy (hazard ratio, 3.1; 95 percent confidence interval,0.6 to 15.0; P=0.15) (Figure 1 and Table 2). Of the two recurrencesin the moderate-intensity group, one was a myocardial infarctionin a patient with both previous myocardial infarction and previousdeep-vein thrombosis, and the other was a deep-vein thrombosisin a patient with previous deep-vein thrombosis. The INR valuesin these two patients were 1.6 and 2.8, respectively.
Figure 1. Time to First Recurrent Thrombosis for All Patients Enrolled in the Study.
INR denotes international randomized ratio. Patients assigned to high-intensity warfarin therapy had a target INR of 3.1 to 4.0; those assigned to moderate-intensity therapy, a target INR of 2.0 to 3.0.
Table 2. Outcomes and Duration of Follow-up in the High-Intensity and Moderate-Intensity Warfarin Groups, According to Subgroup.
The six recurrences in the high-intensity warfarin group includeda deep-vein thrombosis in a patient with both previous peripheralarterial thrombosis and previous deep-vein thrombosis, a strokein a patient with a previous deep-vein thrombosis, a deep-veinthrombosis in a patient with previous stroke, a pulmonary embolismin a patient with previous pulmonary embolism, a myocardialinfarction in a patient with previous myocardial infarction,and a deep-vein thrombosis in a patient with previous pulmonaryembolism. Five of these six patients continued to receive high-intensitywarfarin; their INR values were 3.1, 1.0, 0.9, 1.9, and 3.9,respectively. The sixth patient had discontinued the warfarin137 days before the recurrent event.
Thirteen patients treated with moderate-intensity warfarin discontinuedthe drug prematurely. Of these, five stopped at the time ofa suspected thrombotic event (confirmed on adjudication in twopatients), one stopped because of a major hemorrhage, and sevenwithdrew consent. Of the seven who withdrew consent, two couldnot be followed to the end of the study, and data on these patientswere censored 69 and 414 days after enrollment.
Twenty-one patients treated with high-intensity warfarin discontinuedthe drug prematurely. Of these, 5 stopped at the time of a suspectedthrombotic event (confirmed on adjudication), 3 stopped becauseof a major hemorrhage, 1 became pregnant, clinically significantthrombocytopenia developed in 1, and 11 withdrew consent. Ofthese 21 patients, 1 had a confirmed deep-vein thrombosis threemonths later. Of the 11 patients who withdrew consent, 4 couldnot be followed to the end of the study, and data on these patientswere censored at 60, 148, 657, and 726 days.
The average INR values in the moderate- and high-intensity warfaringroups were 2.3 and 3.3, respectively. In the moderate-intensitygroup, the INR was above the target range 11 percent of thetime, within the range 71 percent of the time, and below it19 percent of the time. In the high-intensity group, the correspondingfigures were 17, 40, and 43 percent. Eighty-six percent of thetime that the INR in patients assigned to high-intensity warfarinwas "subtherapeutic," it was between 2.0 and 3.1.
Major bleeding occurred in four patients assigned to moderate-intensitywarfarin and in three assigned to high-intensity warfarin (Table 2).The annual risk of major bleeding was 2.2 percent with moderate-intensitywarfarin and 3.6 percent with high-intensity warfarin. Elevenpatients (19 percent) in the moderate-intensity group and 14patients (25 percent) in the high-intensity group had at leastone episode of bleeding (Table 2). No patient died during thestudy.
Multivariable analyses with the use of the Cox model did notreveal any statistically significant confounding due to thebase-line characteristics or stratification factors for anyof the study outcomes. The small number of recurrent eventsprecluded a meaningful analysis of the relation between base-lineprognostic factors and the risk of recurrent thrombosis.
Discussion
In this study, we found that high-intensity warfarin therapyis not more effective than moderate-intensity warfarin for theprevention of recurrent thrombosis in patients with antiphospholipidantibodies. Our results also showed that the absolute risk ofrecurrent thrombosis was low if warfarin therapy was targetedto an INR of 2.0 to 3.0.
The findings of this study are different from those of previousstudies in which patients with the antiphospholipid antibodysyndrome had a high risk of recurrent thrombosis when treatedwith moderate-intensity warfarin.2,3 There are several reasonsfor these differences. Most important, the previous studieswere retrospective, and, as a consequence, neither the ratesof recurrent thrombosis nor the intensity of anticoagulant therapyreceived at the time of the recurrent events could be accuratelydetermined. In contrast, we enrolled patients prospectively,evaluated recurrent events objectively, and obtained accuratedata on the intensity of anticoagulant therapy for all patients.In addition, previous studies enrolled patients at a few highlyspecialized clinics that had an interest in managing complexproblems related to antiphospholipid antibodies.
Our results are likely to be valid and generalizable, becausethe study was randomized and double-blinded, central adjudicationwas used, and patients were enrolled at 13 clinical centers.Positive results of two consecutive antiphospholipid-antibodytests performed three months apart were required for enrollmentin order to reduce the likelihood that patients whose test resultswere transiently positive, and therefore potentially less clinicallyimportant, would be included.10 Base-line variables were evenlydistributed between the two groups, with the exception thatthe moderate-intensity group had a higher proportion of women.This imbalance occurred as a result of chance and did not confoundthe results of the study.
Supported by a grant from the Canadian Institutes for HealthResearch (MCT 14390). Dr. Crowther holds a Research Scholarshipfrom the Canadian Institutes for Health Research. Dr. Ginsbergis a Career Investigator of the Heart and Stroke Foundationof Ontario. Drs. Douketis and Kearon each hold Research Scholarshipsfrom the Heart and Stroke Foundation of Canada. Dr. Kovacs isan Internal Scholar of the Department of Medicine at the Universityof Western Ontario, Canada. Dr. Clarke is a Career Investigatorof the Canadian Institutes for Health Research. Dr. Fortin isa Scientist of the Arthritis Society/Canadian Institutes forHealth Research and is supported in part by the Arthritis Centerof Excellence of the University of Toronto.
DuPont Pharma provided the warfarin used in the study.
Source Information
From the Departments of Medicine (M.A.C., J.S.G., J. Denburg, J.H., J. Douketis, C.K.) and Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics (J.J., L.C., W.Y., M.G.), McMaster University, Hamilton, Ont.; the Department of Medicine (C.L., P.F., W.G.) and the Undergraduate Medical Program (S.W.), University of Toronto, Toronto; the Department of Medicine, Dalhousie University, Halifax, N.S. (D.A.); the Department of Medicine, McGill University, Montreal (A.C.); the Department of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ont. (M.F.); and the Department of Medicine, University of Western Ontario, London, Ont. (M.J.K.) all in Canada; and the Department of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago (D.G.).
Address reprint requests to Dr. Crowther at St. Joseph's Hospital, Rm. L208, 50 Charlton Ave. E., Hamilton, ON L8N 4A6, Canada, or at crowthrm{at}mcmaster.ca.
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