Homocysteine as a Predictive Factor for Hip Fracture in Older Persons
Robert R. McLean, M.P.H., Paul F. Jacques, D.Sc., Jacob Selhub, Ph.D., Katherine L. Tucker, Ph.D., Elizabeth J. Samelson, Ph.D., Kerry E. Broe, M.P.H., Marian T. Hannan, D.Sc., L. Adrienne Cupples, Ph.D., and Douglas P. Kiel, M.D.
Background The increased prevalence of osteoporosis among peoplewith homocystinuria suggests that a high serum homocysteineconcentration may weaken bone by interfering with collagen cross-linking,thereby increasing the risk of osteoporotic fracture. We examinedthe association between the total homocysteine concentrationand the risk of hip fracture in men and women enrolled in theFramingham Study.
Methods We studied 825 men and 1174 women, ranging in age from59 to 91 years, from whom blood samples had been obtained between1979 and 1982 to measure plasma total homocysteine. The participantsin our study were followed from the time that the sample wasobtained through June 1998 for incident hip fracture. Sex-specific,age-adjusted incidence rates of hip fracture were calculatedfor quartiles of total homocysteine concentrations. Cox proportional-hazardsregression was used to calculate hazard ratios for quartilesof homocysteine values.
Results The mean (±SD) plasma total homocysteine concentrationwas 13.4±9.1 µmol per liter in men and 12.1±5.3µmol per liter in women. The median duration of follow-upwas 12.3 years for men and 15.0 years for women. There were41 hip fractures among men and 146 among women. The age-adjustedincidence rates per 1000 person-years for hip fracture, fromthe lowest to the highest quartile for total homocysteine, were1.96 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.52 to 3.41), 3.24 (0.97to 5.52), 4.43 (1.80 to 7.07), and 8.14 (4.20 to 12.08) formen and 9.42 (5.72 to 13.12), 7.01 (4.29 to 9.72), 9.58 (6.42to 12.74), and 16.57 (11.84 to 21.30) for women. Men and womenin the highest quartile had a greater risk of hip fracture thanthose in the lowest quartile the risk was almost fourtimes as high for men and 1.9 times as high for women.
Conclusions These findings suggest that the homocysteine concentration,which is easily modifiable by means of dietary intervention,is an important risk factor for hip fracture in older persons.
Homocysteine is an amino acid intermediate formed during themetabolism of methionine. Homocystinuria, a rare autosomal recessivebiochemical abnormality, causes elevated plasma concentrationsof homocysteine and severe occlusive vascular disease.1 Thisobservation has led to studies that implicate plasma homocysteineas a risk factor for cardiovascular disease.2,3 In patientswith homocystinuria, there is an increased prevalence of skeletaldeformities, including osteoporosis,1,4,5 which is a primaryrisk factor for hip fracture. Thus, elevated plasma homocysteineconcentrations may be associated with osteoporosis and may increasethe risk of hip fracture, which can lead to substantial disability,6high medical costs,7 and death.8 We examined the associationbetween plasma total homocysteine concentrations and the riskof hip fracture in a group of older men and women enrolled inthe Framingham Study.
Methods
Participants
The Framingham Study was begun in 1948 with the primary goalof evaluating risk factors for heart disease. A total of 5209men and women who ranged in age from 28 to 62 years were recruitedfrom a sample of two thirds of the residences in Framingham,Massachusetts, and have been examined biennially for more than50 years.9 The participants in the present study included 2043older subjects from whom blood samples were obtained at the16th biennial examination (between 1979 and 1982). Forty-foursubjects with prior hip fractures were excluded, leaving 1999participants (mean age, 70 years; range, 59 to 91) who werefollowed for an incident hip fracture from the date when theblood sample was obtained.
Homocysteine Measurement
Blood samples were collected while the subjects were in a nonfastingstate and were frozen immediately and stored at or below 20°C.In 1997, the samples were thawed and the plasma total homocysteineconcentrations were measured with the use of high-performanceliquid chromatography with fluorometric detection.10 The stabilityof measurements of total homocysteine from plasma or serum storedat temperatures at or below 20°C has been validatedpreviously.11 The coefficient of variation for this assay was9 percent.12
Assessment of Hip Fracture
As reported previously,13 all records of hospitalizations anddeaths for the study participants were systematically reviewedfor occurrences of hip fracture. Beginning in 1983 (18th biennialexamination in the Framingham Study), hip fractures were reportedby interview at each biennial examination or by telephone interviewfor participants unable to attend an examination. Reported hipfractures were confirmed by a review of medical records andradiographic and operative reports. Hip fracture was definedas a first-time fracture of the proximal femur that occurredin the absence of overwhelming trauma (e.g., a motor vehicleaccident).
Covariables
Potential confounders obtained from data from the 16th biennialexamination (except where noted) included sex, age, height,weight, smoking status, caffeine consumption, alcohol consumption,educational level (12 years or <12 years),and current use or nonuse of estrogen among women. Height withoutshoes was measured to the nearest quarter inch (0.6 cm). Weightin pounds (without shoes) was measured with the use of a standardbalance-beam scale at each examination. Smoking was measuredat the 15th examination (between 1977 and 1979) as the averagenumber of cigarettes smoked per day in the previous two years.Caffeine consumption in the form of tea and coffee was quantifiedas previously described.14 At the 15th examination alcohol consumption(beer, wine, or spirits) was calculated as the number of ouncesconsumed per week, as previously reported.15 Participants wereclassified at baseline (16th biennial examination) as eitherhaving a prior diagnosis of cardiovascular disease or not, accordingto previously published diagnostic criteria.16 A score for physicalfunction was calculated as a weighted sum of the participants'self-reported responses to nine questions selected from thosedeveloped by Nagi to measure physical function,17 which wereasked at the 14th biennial examination (between 1975 and 1978),18and a score for cognitive status was obtained with the use ofthe Folstein MiniMental State Examination,19 which wasadministered at the 17th examination (between 1981 and 1984),as previously described.20
Statistical Analysis
Owing to a skewed distribution, total homocysteine concentrationswere analyzed as quartiles and as continuous, natural-logtransformedvalues. Incidence rates of hip fracture (the number of incidentcases divided by the number of person-years at risk for fracture)were calculated for quartiles and were standardized for agein five-year age groups on the basis of sex-specific age distributionsof all the study participants. For each participant, the accumulationof person-years at risk started from the collection of the bloodsample and continued until the first occurrence of hip fracture,death, last contact with the participant, or the end of follow-up(June 30, 1998, for all study participants). Cox proportional-hazardsregression was used to calculate the hazard ratios and the 95percent confidence intervals that were used to estimate therelative increase in the risk of hip fracture for each of thethree higher quartiles as compared with the lowest quartile(referent); it was also used to test for a linear trend in thehazard ratios across all the quartiles. To estimate the absoluteassociation between homocysteine concentrations and hip fracture,differences in risk between the highest and lowest quartileswere calculated with 95 percent confidence intervals.
The risk of hip fracture within each quartile was calculatedwith the use of the Cox regression model as 1 minus the probabilityof survival without a hip fracture to the median follow-up time.Cox regression was also used to estimate the hazard ratio forhip fracture for each increase of 1 SD in continuous, log-transformedtotal homocysteine values. All analyses were conducted separatelyfor men and women. Regression analyses used to calculate thehazard ratios were adjusted for potential confounders by includingdata on age, height, weight, smoking status, caffeine consumption,alcohol consumption, educational level, and current use or nonuseof estrogen among women. To estimate the risk of fracture withinquartiles in the Cox regression models, potential confounderswere assigned mean levels for continuous covariates and themost prevalent category for dichotomous variables.
People with higher homocysteine concentrations may have an increasedrisk of cardiovascular disease and cognitive dysfunction,21conditions that limit activity and result in greater frailtyand an increased risk of hip fracture. To address cardiovasculardisease as a potential confounder, we performed additional analysesadjusted for the presence or absence of cardiovascular diseaseand for measures of physical function and cognitive status.Because the scores for cognitive status were not collected untilthe 17th examination, analyses involving this covariate startedat that examination. To investigate the possible effect of changesin weight, we adjusted a model for time-varying weight. To determinewhether a subgroup of participants with extremely high homocysteineconcentrations who were in the highest quartile might be drivingthe association between homocysteine and hip fracture, we repeatedour original analysis but excluded subjects considered to haveextreme homocysteine values within the highest quartile. Forall statistical analyses, we used SAS/STAT software, version8.1 (SAS Institute).
Results
Table 1 lists the baseline characteristics of the participantsaccording to sex. The mean (±SD) age among the 825 menwas 69.5 years, and among the 1174 women it was 70.3 years.The men were taller than the women, weighed more, smoked morecigarettes, consumed more alcohol, and had higher mean totalhomocysteine concentrations. Among the men the median follow-upperiod was 12.3 years, and among the women it was 15.0 years.During follow-up, 41 of the men and 146 of the women sustainedhip fractures.
Table 1. Baseline Characteristics of the Study Participants.
The characteristics of the study participants across the quartilesof total homocysteine concentrations are shown in Table 2. Amongmen, the mean total homocysteine concentration in the lowestquartile (quartile 1) was 8.5±0.9 µmol per liter,and among women it was 7.6±1.0. In the highest quartile(quartile 4), among men the total homocysteine concentrationsranged from 15.01 to 219.80 µmol per liter, with a meanof 20.8±15.7. Among women in quartile 4, concentrationsranged from 13.47 to 59.27 µmol per liter, with a meanof 18.6±6.4. Mean age increased from the lowest to thehighest quartile among men (quartile 1, 67.9 years; and quartile4, 71.8) and among women (quartile 1, 68.3 years; and quartile4, 73.3). The age ranges for men and women were similar in allquartiles.
Table 2. Homocysteine Concentrations and Ages of Participants.
Table 3 lists the age-adjusted incidence rates of hip fractureaccording to the quartile of total homocysteine concentration.Among men, the number of hip fractures increased monotonicallyfrom 5 in quartile 1 to 17 in quartile 4. Among women, however,the number of hip fractures was similar from quartile 1 to quartile3 (range, 26 to 36) and then increased to 54 in quartile 4.Age-adjusted incidence rates among men increased across thequartiles, from 1.96 fractures per 1000 person-years in quartile1 to 8.14 per 1000 person-years in quartile 4. Among women,although the incidence rates were similar from quartile 1 toquartile 3 (range, 7.01 to 9.58 fractures per 1000 person-years),the rate of fracture was higher in quartile 4 (16.57 per 1000person-years).
Table 3. Age-Adjusted Incidence Rates of Hip Fracture According to Quartile of Homocysteine Level.
The results of the multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional-hazardsregressions for quartiles of homocysteine concentrations areshown in Figure 1. Whereas men in quartiles 2 and 3 tended tohave a higher risk of hip fracture than those in quartile 1(hazard ratio for quartile 2, 1.67; 95 percent confidence interval,0.54 to 5.14; hazard ratio for quartile 3, 2.07; 95 percentconfidence interval, 0.70 to 6.09), the risk of fracture amongmen in quartile 4 was almost four times the risk among men inquartile 1 (hazard ratio for quartile 4, 3.84; 95 percent confidenceinterval, 1.38 to 10.70). The test for a linear trend in hazardratios across the quartiles was statistically significant (P<0.01),suggesting a linear association between the quartile of homocysteineconcentration and the risk of hip fracture. In quartile 4 ascompared with quartile 1, there were 8.8 excess fractures per100 men (95 percent confidence interval, 0.4 to 17.3) for themean levels of the covariates at 14 years of follow-up.
Figure 1. Multivariable-Adjusted Hazard Ratios for the Risk of Hip Fracture, According to the Quartile of Total Homocysteine Concentration.
The y axis is on a log scale. The reference group is quartile 1. The I bars denote 95 percent confidence intervals.
Among the women, there was no apparent increase in the riskof fracture in quartiles 2 and 3 as compared with quartile 1(hazard ratio for quartile 2, 0.78; 95 percent confidence interval,0.45 to 1.33; hazard ratio for quartile 3, 1.07; 95 percentconfidence interval, 0.64 to 1.78) (Figure 1). Among women inquartile 4, however, the risk of fracture was nearly twice thatamong women in quartile 1 (hazard ratio for quartile 4, 1.92;95 percent confidence interval, 1.18 to 3.10). The test fora linear trend in hazard ratios was statistically significant(P<0.01). For women who were not currently receiving estrogentherapy, the difference in the risk of hip fracture betweenquartiles 4 and 1 for the mean levels of their covariates at14 years of follow-up was 9.5 excess fractures per 100 participants(95 percent confidence interval, 1.2 to 17.9).
For each increase of 1 SD in the log-transformed total homocysteineconcentration, the risk of hip fracture increased by 59 percentin men (1 SD in log-transformed homocysteine concentration,0.34; hazard ratio, 1.59; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.31to 1.94) and by 26 percent in women (1 SD, 0.35; hazard ratio,1.26; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.08 to 1.47). Additionaladjustments for cardiovascular disease, physical function, cognitivestatus, and weight modeled as a time-varying covariate did notchange the effect of the homocysteine concentration on the riskof hip fracture for men or women. Among the men in quartile4, two had homocysteine values (96 and 220 µmol per liter)that were more than double the next highest value. The effectof the homocysteine concentration on the risk of hip fracturewas essentially unchanged when our analysis was repeated withthese two outliers excluded. There were no extreme homocysteinevalues among the women.
Discussion
We found that plasma homocysteine concentrations were associatedwith the risk of hip fracture in both men and women. The studyparticipants in the highest quartile of values for total homocysteinehad a significantly higher risk of hip fracture than those inthe lowest quartile: by a factor of almost four in men and bya factor of 1.9 in women. The risk of hip fracture was elevatedby 59 percent in men and by 26 percent in women for each increaseof 1 SD in the log-transformed total homocysteine concentration.The increase in risk across quartiles in men appeared to bemonotonic. Despite the statistically significant test for alinear trend in the risk among women, only those in the highestquartile were at increased risk for hip fracture, which suggestsa possible threshold effect.
The apparent differences according to sex in the gradient ofrisk from the lowest to the highest quartile of homocysteineconcentrations may be explained by the lower background incidenceof hip fracture in men. Because the magnitude of the hazardratio depends on the risk in the reference group, we providedan absolute measure of the effect of the homocysteine concentrationon the risk of hip fracture. The differences in absolute riskbetween the highest and lowest quartiles for men and women weremore similar (8.8 and 9.5 fractures, respectively, per 100 participantsat 14 years of follow-up) than the hazard ratios (3.84 and 1.92,respectively). Therefore, the effect of the homocysteine concentrationon the risk of hip fracture is most likely very similar in menand women.
To explain the increased prevalence of osteoporosis among patientswith homocystinuria, McKusick first proposed that homocysteineinterferes with the cross-linking of collagen.22 Later studiessupported this hypothesis with evidence of reduced collagencross-linking in patients with homocystinuria.23,24 Whetherthese findings in studies of patients with the congenital conditionof homocystinuria are directly applicable to normal variationsin homocysteine concentrations among adults is unclear.
There is little evidence that homocysteine has a direct effecton bone. One study showed that chicks fed a homocysteine-supplementeddiet had altered bone growth, bone matrix, and bone compositionas compared with control chicks25 but had similar mechanicalstrength and indexes of bone formation. This finding suggestedthat changes in bone geometry may compensate for any weaknesscaused by possible defects in collagen cross-linking. Futurestudies are needed to examine the association between homocysteineand the material and structural properties of bone in humans.
Although one previous report failed to find a relation betweenhomocysteine concentrations and bone mineral density,26 studiesof genetic association support the concept that homocysteineis involved in the development of osteoporosis. The reducedactivity of the enzyme methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR),which is determined by the MTHFR gene, can interfere with themethylation of homocysteine to methionine, possibly resultingin abnormal plasma homocysteine concentrations. A common mutationin the MTHFR gene27 is associated with elevated plasma homocysteineconcentrations in patients with reduced plasma folate concentrations.28The results of studies of bone mass29,30,31,32 and fracture30are not consistent, yet they suggest that there may be a relationbetween the MTHFR gene and both bone mineral density and therisk of fracture.
If the homocysteine concentration truly is a causal mechanismfor the risk of fracture, the public health implications couldbe substantial. The 1996 mandate of the Food and Drug Administrationto fortify enriched grain products with folic acid33 has helpedto reduce the prevalence of low folate concentrations (<7nmol per liter) in persons who are not taking vitamin supplementsfrom 22.0 percent to 1.7 percent and to reduce the prevalenceof homocysteine concentrations higher than 13 µmol perliter from 18.7 percent to 9.8 percent.34 It remains to be seenwhether this intervention will affect future rates of hip fracturein the United States.
Our study has several potential limitations. First, our findingsin white men and women may not be generalizable to other racialand ethnic groups. Second, because blood samples obtained fromnonfasting subjects tend to yield higher total homocysteineconcentrations than samples from fasting subjects,35 the concentrationsin our study may not be comparable to those in other studiesin which samples were obtained from fasting subjects. Third,owing to the within-person variability of homocysteine concentrations,the use of a single measurement performed during the 20-yearfollow-up period may have led to regression dilution, resultingin an underestimate of the relative risk of hip fracture accordingto the homocysteine concentration.36 Fourth, we were unableto assess potential confounding due to dietary factors, becauseno dietary information was available at baseline. Because folateand vitamins B12 and B6 are major determinants of homocysteineconcentrations in older persons,12,37 the inadequacy of oneor more of these vitamins, rather than the homocysteine concentrationitself, may be responsible for the observed effect on the riskof hip fracture. Patients with pernicious anemia have decreasedbone mineral density at the lumbar spine,38 and in comparisonwith the general population they have almost double the riskof hip fracture.39 A recent, population-based study showed thatolder women, but not men, with low bone mineral density hadsignificantly lower vitamin B12 concentrations than older womenwith higher bone density.40
It is also possible that the effect of homocysteine on the riskof hip fracture is mediated through other nutrients, apart fromB vitamins, that we were unable to measure. If there is a directeffect of these dietary factors on the risk of hip fracture,the homocysteine concentration may simply reflect nutritionalstatus. Thus, dietary factors may explain the relation betweenthe plasma homocysteine concentration and the risk of hip fractureobserved in our study. Finally, because no data on bone mineraldensity were available for the study participants at baseline,we were unable to assess whether the effect of homocysteineon hip fracture may be mediated through bone mineral density.
We were not able to establish causality definitively, becauseplasma homocysteine concentrations may only be a marker fornutritional or metabolic differences that are the real causalfactors in hip fracture. Furthermore, we cannot determine whetherthe association observed in our study population is a resultof the same mechanisms that lead to an increased prevalenceof osteoporosis among patients with homocystinuria.
This study suggests that the total homocysteine concentrationis strongly associated with the risk of hip fracture. If therelationship proves to be one of cause and effect, this findingmay have important implications for the development of interventionsto prevent hip fractures, because total homocysteine concentrationscan be effectively and easily modified by dietary intake offolic acid and vitamins B6 and B12. Further population-basedresearch is needed to examine the role of homocysteine in osteoporosisand osteoporotic fracture and to determine whether nationwidefolic acid fortification of food will help to reduce rates ofhip fracture in the United States.
Supported by a grant from the National Institutes of Health(RO1 AR/AG 41398), a contract with the National Heart, Lung,and Blood Institute's Framingham Heart Study (N01-HC-25195),a grant from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (HL54776),and an agreement (58-1950-9-001) and a contract (53-3K06-01)with the Department of Agriculture Research Service.
Dr. Jacques reports having received consulting fees from AgeWaveand lecture fees from Syngenta and the Vitamin Nutrition InformationService. Dr. Selhub reports having received consulting feesfrom Eprova, Pamlab, Cooper Clinic, and VitaMed and holdinga U.S. patent (10/020,634) on methods of vitamin compositionin the treatment of osteoarthritis.
We are indebted to Dr. David T. Felson, who helped initiatethe Framingham Osteoporosis Study and who helped adjudicatehip fractures.
Source Information
From the Hebrew Rehabilitation Center for Aged Research and Training Institute (R.R.M., E.J.S., K.E.B., M.T.H., D.P.K.); the Jean Mayer Department of Agriculture Human Nutrition Research Center on Aging, Tufts University (P.F.J., J.S., K.L.T.); the Department of Biostatistics, Boston University School of Public Health (L.A.C.); and the Harvard Medical School Division on Aging (M.T.H., D.P.K.) all in Boston.
Address reprint requests to Dr. McLean at the Framingham Study, 73 Mt. Wayte Ave., Framingham, MA 01702, or at rmclean{at}mail.hrca.harvard.edu.
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Homocysteine as a Predictive Factor for Hip Fracture in Older Persons
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