A Randomized Trial of Low-Dose Aspirin in the Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease in Women
Paul M Ridker, M.D., Nancy R. Cook, Sc.D., I-Min Lee, M.B., B.S., David Gordon, M.A., J. Michael Gaziano, M.D., JoAnn E. Manson, M.D., Charles H. Hennekens, M.D., and Julie E. Buring, Sc.D.
Background Randomized trials have shown that low-dose aspirindecreases the risk of a first myocardial infarction in men,with little effect on the risk of ischemic stroke. There arefew similar data in women.
Methods We randomly assigned 39,876 initially healthy women45 years of age or older to receive 100 mg of aspirin on alternatedays or placebo and then monitored them for 10 years for a firstmajor cardiovascular event (i.e., nonfatal myocardial infarction,nonfatal stroke, or death from cardiovascular causes).
Results During follow-up, 477 major cardiovascular events wereconfirmed in the aspirin group, as compared with 522 in theplacebo group, for a nonsignificant reduction in risk with aspirinof 9 percent (relative risk, 0.91; 95 percent confidence interval,0.80 to 1.03; P=0.13). With regard to individual end points,there was a 17 percent reduction in the risk of stroke in theaspirin group, as compared with the placebo group (relativerisk, 0.83; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.69 to 0.99; P=0.04),owing to a 24 percent reduction in the risk of ischemic stroke(relative risk, 0.76; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.63 to0.93; P=0.009) and a nonsignificant increase in the risk ofhemorrhagic stroke (relative risk, 1.24; 95 percent confidenceinterval, 0.82 to 1.87; P=0.31). As compared with placebo, aspirinhad no significant effect on the risk of fatal or nonfatal myocardialinfarction (relative risk, 1.02; 95 percent confidence interval,0.84 to 1.25; P=0.83) or death from cardiovascular causes (relativerisk, 0.95; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.74 to 1.22; P=0.68).Gastrointestinal bleeding requiring transfusion was more frequentin the aspirin group than in the placebo group (relative risk,1.40; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.07 to 1.83; P=0.02).Subgroup analyses showed that aspirin significantly reducedthe risk of major cardiovascular events, ischemic stroke, andmyocardial infarction among women 65 years of age or older.
Conclusions In this large, primary-prevention trial among women,aspirin lowered the risk of stroke without affecting the riskof myocardial infarction or death from cardiovascular causes,leading to a nonsignificant finding with respect to the primaryend point.
Although aspirin is effective in the treatment of acute myocardialinfarction and in the secondary prevention of cardiovasculardisease among both men and women,1 its use in primary preventionremains controversial. To date, five randomized trials involving55,580 participants have evaluated aspirin in the primary preventionof cardiovascular disease.2,3,4,5,6 In aggregate, these trialsindicate that, as compared with placebo, aspirin therapy wasassociated with a significant, 32 percent reduction in the riskof myocardial infarction, but the data on the risk of strokeand death from cardiovascular disease remain inconclusive.7Moreover, three of these trials evaluated men exclusively, andfewer than 180 of the 2402 vascular events occurred in women.Thus, at this time, the current recommendations for the useof aspirin in primary prevention in women are based on limiteddirect data from women.8,9,10
Direct evidence regarding the effects of aspirin in women isnecessary because cardiovascular disease is the leading causeof death among both women and men. Direct evidence is also relevantbecause of the potential for sex-based differences in salicylatemetabolism11 and continuing uncertainty regarding the cardiovasculareffects of hormone-replacement therapy.12 Moreover, in additionto a paucity of data on women, the prophylactic use of aspirinin both sexes has prompted concern owing to the potentiallyincreased risk of hemorrhagic stroke.13 This issue is particularlycomplex, since the relative proportion of stroke to myocardialinfarction differs between women and men.
We addressed these questions in the Women's Health Study, alarge randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial oflow-dose aspirin in the primary prevention of cardiovasculardisease among 39,876 apparently healthy women followed for amean of 10 years for the major cardiovascular events of myocardialinfarction, stroke, and death from cardiovascular causes.
Methods
Study Design
The Women's Health Study is a two-by-two factorial trial evaluatingthe balance of risks and benefits of low-dose aspirin (100 mgevery other day; Bayer HealthCare) and vitamin E (600 IU everyother day; Natural Source Vitamin E Association), in the primaryprevention of cardiovascular disease and cancer. The trial wasdesigned to evaluate the lowest dose of aspirin that would havea cardioprotective effect, while minimizing gastrointestinalside effects through the use of a low dose and alternate-dayadministration. The design of the study has previously beendescribed in detail.14,15 In brief, between September 1992 andMay 1995, letters of invitation were mailed to more than 1.7million female health professionals. A total of 453,787 completedthe questionnaires, with 65,169 initially willing and eligibleto enroll. Women were eligible if they were 45 years of ageor older; had no history of coronary heart disease, cerebrovasculardisease, cancer (except nonmelanoma skin cancer), or other majorchronic illness; had no history of side effects to any of thestudy medications; were not taking aspirin or nonsteroidal antiinflammatorymedications (NSAIDs) more than once a week (or were willingto forego their use during the trial); were not taking anticoagulantsor corticosteroids; and were not taking individual supplementsof vitamin A, E, or beta carotene more than once a week. Forthe purposes of this study, inhibitors of cyclooxygenase, whetherselective or nonselective, were considered to be NSAIDs.
Eligible women were enrolled in a three-month run-in periodof placebo administration to identify a group likely to be compliantwith long-term treatment. A total of 39,876 women were willing,eligible, and compliant during the run-in period and underwentrandomization: 19,934 were assigned to receive aspirin and 19,942to receive placebo. Written informed consent was obtained fromall participants. The trial was approved by the institutionalreview board of Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, and wasmonitored by an external data and safety monitoring board.
Every 12 months, the women were sent a year's supply of monthlycalendar packs containing active agents or placebo as well asquestionnaires on compliance, side effects, the occurrence ofrelevant clinical end points, and risk factors. Study medicationsand end-point ascertainment were continued in a blinded fashionthrough the scheduled end of the trial (March 31, 2004). Follow-upand validation of reported end points were completed in February2005. Rates of follow-up with respect to morbidity and mortalitywere 97.2 percent complete and 99.4 percent complete, respectively.
All the women were followed for myocardial infarction, stroke,or death from cardiovascular causes. Medical records were obtainedfor all women in whom a cardiovascular end point was reportedto occur and were reviewed in a blinded fashion by an end-pointscommittee of physicians. Myocardial infarction was confirmedif symptoms met World Health Organization criteria and if theevent was associated with abnormal levels of cardiac enzymesor diagnostic electrocardiograms. A confirmed stroke was definedas a new neurologic deficit of sudden onset that persisted forat least 24 hours. Clinical information, computed tomographicscans, and magnetic resonance images were used to distinguishhemorrhagic from ischemic events.16 Death was confirmed to befrom cardiovascular causes on the basis of an examination ofautopsy reports, death certificates, medical records, and informationobtained from the next of kin or other family members. The useof coronary revascularization (bypass surgery or percutaneouscoronary angioplasty) was confirmed by a review of the medicalrecords. A confirmed transient ischemic attack was defined asa neurologic deficit of sudden onset that lasted for less than24 hours. Death from any cause was confirmed by the end-pointscommittee or on the basis of a death certificate. Only confirmedend points were included in this analysis. For women with areported myocardial infarction, the most common diagnoses amongthose in whom the diagnosis was not confirmed were stable orunstable angina or chest pain without evidence of infarction.For women with a reported stroke, the most common alternativediagnosis was transient cerebral ischemia.
Statistical Analysis
All primary analyses were performed on an intention-to-treatbasis. The primary end point was a combination of major cardiovascularevents, including nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke,and death from cardiovascular causes, and the trial was initiallydesigned to have a statistical power of 86 percent to detecta 25 percent reduction in this end point. Secondary end pointsincluded the individual end points of fatal or nonfatal myocardialinfarction, fatal or nonfatal stroke, ischemic stroke, hemorrhagicstroke, and death from cardiovascular causes. Additional analysesincluded the incidence of death from any cause, transient ischemicattack, and the need for coronary revascularization. If morethan one end point occurred in a given woman, only the firstevent within each category was counted; for the primary combinedend point, the first event in each woman was counted.
Cox proportional-hazards models were used to calculate relativerisks and 95 percent confidence intervals for the comparisonof event rates in the aspirin and placebo groups after adjustmentfor age and other randomized treatment assignments (vitaminE and beta carotene, which was a component of the trial fora median of 2.1 years17). Prespecified subgroup analyses wereperformed according to the presence or absence of major cardiovascularrisk factors. Modification of the effect of aspirin by the riskfactors was assessed with the use of interaction terms betweensubgroup indicators and aspirin assignment, with tests for trendperformed when subgroup categories were ordinal. To examineeffects among women who were compliant, we performed a sensitivityanalysis in which follow-up data were censored at the time awoman reported having taken less than two thirds of the studymedication during the previous year. In additional analyses,data were censored on women if and when they started takingNSAIDs more than three times a month.
Results
Primary Analyses
As shown in Table 1, the aspirin and placebo groups were similarwith respect to baseline characteristics. The average durationof follow-up from randomization to the end of the trial was10.1 years (range, 8.2 to 10.9). At the completion of the trial,999 women had had a first major cardiovascular event (Table 2),for an absolute event rate of 253 per 100,000 person-years.Of these women, 477 were in the aspirin group and 522 were inthe placebo group, indicating that there was a nonsignificantreduction in risk of 9 percent (relative risk, 0.91; 95 percentconfidence interval, 0.80 to 1.03; P=0.13).
Table 2. Incidence and Relative Risk of Confirmed Cardiovascular End Points.
Regarding individual end points, women in the aspirin grouphad a 17 percent reduction in the risk of stroke (relative risk,0.83; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.69 to 0.99; P=0.04),as compared with women in the placebo group; a 24 percent reductionin the risk of ischemic stroke (relative risk, 0.76; 95 percentconfidence interval, 0.63 to 0.93; P=0.009); and a nonsignificantincrease in the risk of hemorrhagic stroke (relative risk, 1.24;95 percent confidence interval, 0.82 to 1.87; P=0.31) (Table 2).There was no significant difference between the groups inthe risk of fatal stroke (relative risk in the aspirin group,1.04; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.58 to 1.86; P=0.90),but the aspirin group had a decreased risk of nonfatal strokes(relative risk, 0.81; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.67 to0.97; P=0.02), as compared with the placebo group.
There was no evidence that, as compared with placebo, aspirinreduced the overall risk of myocardial infarction (relativerisk, 1.02; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.84 to 1.25; P=0.83),fatal myocardial infarction (relative risk, 1.16; 95 percentconfidence interval, 0.54 to 2.51; P=0.70), nonfatal myocardialinfarction (relative risk, 1.01; 95 percent confidence interval,0.83 to 1.24; P=0.90), or death from cardiovascular causes (relativerisk, 0.95; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.74 to 1.22; P=0.68).However, aspirin therapy was associated with a 22 percent reductionin the risk of transient ischemic attack (relative risk, 0.78;95 percent confidence interval, 0.64 to 0.94; P=0.01), withno significant effects on the risk of coronary revascularization(relative risk, 1.04; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.90 to1.20; P=0.61) or death from any cause (relative risk, 0.95;95 percent confidence interval, 0.85 to 1.06; P=0.32).
Figure 1 and Figure 2 present the cumulative incidence ratesof major cardiovascular events, stroke, myocardial infarction,ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke according to the yearof follow-up. Because it has been suggested that the abilityof aspirin to inhibit platelet function diminishes over time,18we also evaluated incidence rates according to the length offollow-up. A beneficial effect of aspirin on stroke was observedearly in the trial and persisted throughout the trial, withno apparent benefit of aspirin on myocardial infarction at anypoint during follow-up.
Figure 2. Cumulative Incidence Rates of Stroke, Myocardial Infarction, Ischemic Stroke, and Hemorrhagic Stroke.
Neither treatment with vitamin E nor treatment with beta carotenesignificantly modified the effect of aspirin on the primaryor secondary end points.
Subgroup Analyses
There was no evidence that any of the cardiovascular risk factorsconsidered, except smoking status and age, modified the effectof aspirin on the primary end point of major cardiovascularevents (Table 3). We observed a greater benefit of aspirin onthe risk of major cardiovascular events among former smokersand those who had never smoked, with an apparent increased riskamong current smokers (P for interaction <0.001), althoughit is important to interpret this information in the contextof multiple comparisons. In addition, age significantly modifiedthe effect of aspirin on the risk of both major cardiovascularevents and myocardial infarction (P for interaction = 0.05 and0.03, respectively). The most consistent benefit of aspirinwas observed among the subgroup of women 65 years of age orolder at study entry; in this subgroup, the risk of major cardiovascularevents was reduced by 26 percent among those who took aspirinas compared with those who took placebo (relative risk, 0.74;95 percent confidence interval, 0.59 to 0.92; P=0.008), andthe risk of ischemic stroke was reduced by 30 percent (relativerisk, 0.70; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.49 to 1.00; P=0.05).This was also the only subgroup in which aspirin, as comparedwith placebo, significantly reduced the risk of myocardial infarction(relative risk, 0.66; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.44 to0.97; P=0.04).
Table 3. Incidence and Relative Risk of Cardiovascular Events, According to Baseline Characteristics.
To address whether compliance may have affected our results,we performed a sensitivity analysis in which follow-up datawere censored at the time a woman reported having taken lessthan two thirds of the study medication during the precedingyear. In this analysis, aspirin, as compared with placebo, reducedthe risk of major cardiovascular events by 13 percent, reducedthe risk of stroke by 26 percent, reduced the risk of ischemicstroke by 33 percent, and had no significant effect on the riskof myocardial infarction (relative risk, 1.03; 95 percent confidenceinterval, 0.81 to 1.32; P=0.79).
Some women started taking NSAIDs during the trial apotentially important issue with respect to the risk of thromboticevents, since certain NSAIDs can compete with aspirin for receptorson platelets.19 According to our data, however, the lack ofan effect of aspirin therapy on the risk of myocardial infarctionwas not explained by concomitant use of NSAIDs.20
Side Effects
Reports of gastrointestinal bleeding and peptic ulcer were confirmedby means of follow-up questionnaires. These side effects weresignificantly more common among women in the aspirin group thanamong women in the placebo group (Table 4). There were 127 episodesof gastrointestinal bleeding requiring transfusion in the aspiringroup, as compared with 91 in the placebo group (relative risk,1.40; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.07 to 1.83; P=0.02).Self-reported hematuria, easy bruising, and epistaxis were frequentamong women in both groups, with small but significant excessesamong those in the aspirin group. The percentage of women reportingany symptoms suggestive of gastric upset was virtually identicalin the two groups. There were five fatal gastrointestinal hemorrhages,two in the aspirin group and three in the placebo group.
Table 4. Incidence and Relative Risk of Side Effects.
Discussion
In this large, placebo-controlled, primary-prevention trialinvolving 39,876 initially healthy women, prophylactic aspirinat a dose of 100 mg every other day was associated with a nonsignificantreduction in the risk of major cardiovascular events, a reducedrisk of total stroke and of ischemic stroke, a nonsignificantincrease in the risk of hemorrhagic stroke, and no significanteffect on the risk of myocardial infarction or death from cardiovascularcauses. With respect to the primary end point of major cardiovascularevents as well as the individual end points of fatal or nonfatalstroke and myocardial infarction, consistent benefits of aspirinwere observed among the subgroup of women who were 65 yearsof age or older. We found no evidence that menopausal status,the use or nonuse of hormone-replacement therapy after menopause,or global cardiovascular-risk status modified the effect ofaspirin. As expected, the frequency of side effects relatedto bleeding and ulcers was increased among women who receivedaspirin.
Our findings must be interpreted in the context of those ofother completed, randomized trials of aspirin in the primaryand secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease. In secondaryprevention, the Antithrombotic Trialists' Collaboration showedthat aspirin clearly reduced the risk of cardiovascular events,myocardial infarction, and ischemic stroke in both men and women.1To address the effects of aspirin in primary prevention, weperformed a random-effects meta-analysis that included currentdata from the Women's Health Study, as well as data from fiveprior trials involving 55,580 participants with no history ofheart disease.2,3,4,5,6,21 Overall, as compared with placebo,aspirin therapy significantly reduced the risk of myocardialinfarction (relative risk, 0.76; 95 percent confidence interval,0.62 to 0.95; P=0.01) but had no significant effect on the riskof stroke (relative risk, 0.97; 95 percent confidence interval,0.83 to 1.13; P=0.69). In analyses stratified according to sex(Figure 3), combined data on women from the Women's Health Study,the Hypertension Optimal Treatment (HOT) study,5,21 and thePrimary Prevention Project6 (and Roncaglioni MC: personal communication)indicate that aspirin therapy was associated with a significant,19 percent reduction in the risk of stroke (relative risk, 0.81;95 percent confidence interval, 0.69 to 0.96; P=0.01), withno reduction in the risk of myocardial infarction (relativerisk, 0.99; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.83 to 1.19; P=0.95).By contrast, the aggregate data on men from the Physicians'Health Study,2 the British Doctors' Trial,3 the Thrombosis PreventionTrial,4 the HOT study,5,21 and the Primary Prevention Project6indicate that aspirin therapy was associated with a significant,32 percent reduction in the risk of myocardial infarction (relativerisk, 0.68; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.54 to 0.86; P=0.001)and a nonsignificant increase in the risk of stroke (relativerisk, 1.13; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.96 to 1.33; P=0.15).The differences between men and women were significant at theP=0.01 level for myocardial infarction and at the P=0.005 levelfor stroke.
Figure 3. Aspirin in the Primary Prevention of Myocardial Infarction and Stroke among Men and Women.
The results of a sex-specific random-effects meta-analysis of data from six trials are shown: the British Doctors' Trial (BDT), the Physicians' Health Study (PHS), the Thrombosis Prevention Trial (TPT), the Hypertension Optimal Treatment (HOT) study, the Primary Prevention Project (PPP), and the current Women's Health Study (WHS). The relative risk (RR) and 95 percent confidence interval (in parentheses) are shown for each trial (indicated by the box and horizontal line through each box, respectively), and the relative risk is shown for the combined results (indicated by the diamond and the dashed line in each graph). For the relative risk of myocardial infarction among women, the dashed line is coincident with the solid line at 1.00. The size of the box is proportional to the amount of information in the corresponding trial.
The reasons for any sex-based differences in the efficacy ofaspirin for primary prevention are unclear and require furtherexploration. Although the observed reductions in the risk ofstroke could be due to chance, the reduced risk of transientischemic attack associated with aspirin therapy adds supportto the possibility of a causal interpretation. We cannot ruleout the possibility that our null finding for the risk of myocardialinfarction in women was due to an insufficient dose of aspirinor to the alternate-day regimen. However, we believe these explanationsto be unlikely for three reasons.
First, we have previously shown that the dose of 100 mg everyother day used in the Women's Health Study reduces thromboxanelevels by 93 percent and prostacyclin levels by 85 percent andthat these effects are similar in men and women.22 Second, inthe HOT study, a 75-mg daily dose of aspirin significantly loweredthe risk of myocardial infarction overall, with a 42 percentreduction in the risk among men but a far smaller and nonsignificantreduction among women.21 Third, since the dose and alternate-dayregimen of aspirin used in our study were adequate to lowerthe risk of stroke, it is unlikely that any hypothesized sex-baseddifferences in the resistance to aspirin were at play overall.However, resistance to aspirin may be more prevalent among smokers,23and this resistance may have played some role in the increasedrisk with aspirin observed among current smokers. We also believeit unlikely that a reduction in the efficacy of aspirin overtime is a viable explanation, since the cumulative incidencedata presented in Figure 1 and Figure 2 offer no support forthis hypothesis. Furthermore, suboptimal compliance is an unlikelyexplanation, since aspirin did not decrease the risk of myocardialinfarction among women with high rates of compliance an observation again in contrast to data on stroke among thesame women.
With regard to daily clinical practice, our data demonstratethat aspirin therapy was associated with a net reduction inthe risk of stroke among women, with a reduction in the riskof the far more common ischemic stroke and an increase in therisk of hemorrhagic stroke. This observation is particularlyrelevant, since as compared with men, women have a relativelygreater proportion of strokes than of myocardial infarctions.Among women in the placebo group, there were more strokes thanmyocardial infarctions (266 vs. 193), and thus, the ratio ofincident strokes to incident myocardial infarctions was 1.4:1,as compared with the ratio of 0.4:1 among men in the Physicians'Health Study.2 From a policy perspective, our findings clearlydemonstrate the importance of studying women as well as menin major cardiovascular clinical trials.
An interesting finding in our subgroup analyses was that themost consistent benefit of aspirin was observed among women65 years of age or older. This group of 4097 women composed10 percent of the study population yet had almost one thirdof the cardiovascular events. In this group, aspirin use, ascompared with placebo use, led to 44 fewer myocardial infarctions,strokes, or deaths from cardiovascular causes (P=0.008) butto 16 more gastrointestinal hemorrhages requiring transfusion(P=0.05), emphasizing, as with any agent, the importance ofbalancing benefits and risks. This age-based difference deservesfurther investigation.
With respect to guidelines in primary prevention, in 2002, thePreventive Services Task Force24 and the American Heart Association9recommended aspirin for adults whose 10-year risks of a firstcoronary-heart-disease event were at least 6 percent and 10percent, respectively. However, this may be complex for women,since in our study overall, aspirin lowered the risk of strokewithout affecting the risk of myocardial infarction or deathfrom cardiovascular causes. Thus, as with men, any decisionabout the use of aspirin in primary prevention among women mustultimately be made after a woman consults her physician or healthcare provider, so that the net absolute benefits and risks forthe individual patient can be ascertained.
Supported by grants (HL-43851 and CA-47988) from the NationalHeart, Lung, and Blood Institute and the National Cancer Institute,Bethesda, Md. Aspirin and aspirin placebo were provided by BayerHealthCare. Vitamin E and vitamin E placebo were provided bythe Natural Source Vitamin E Association.
Dr. Ridker reports having received grant support from Bayer.Dr. Cook reports having served as a consultant to Bayer. Dr.Gaziano reports having served as a consultant to, and receivinggrant support from, Bayer and McNeil. Dr. Hennekens reportshaving served as a consultant to Bayer and McNeil and receivinggrant support from Bayer.
We are indebted to the 39,876 participants in the Women's HealthStudy for their dedicated and conscientious collaboration; tothe entire staff of the Women's Health Study, under the leadershipof David Gordon, Maria Andrade, Susan Burt, Mary Breen, MarilynChown, Lisa Fields-Johnson, Georgina Friedenberg, Inge Judge,Jean MacFadyen, Geneva McNair, Laura Pestana, David Potter,Philomena Quinn, Claire Ridge, Fred Schwerin, and Harriet Samuelson;to Christine Albert, Michelle Albert, Gavin Blake, Claudia Chae,Wendy Chen, Richard Doll, Carlos Kase, Tobias Kurth, RichardPeto, Aruna Pradhan, Kathryn Rexrode, Bernard Rosner, and H.Jacqueline Suk for their assistance in the design and conductof the trial; and especially to James Taylor for chairing theend-points committee.
Source Information
From the Divisions of Preventive Medicine (P.MR., N.R.C., I-M.L., D.G., J.M.G., J.E.M., J.E.B.), Cardiovascular Medicine (P.MR., J.M.G.), and Aging (J.M.G., J.E.B.), Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School; the Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health (P.MR., N.R.C., I-M.L., J.E.M., J.E.B.); Veterans Affairs Boston Healthcare System (J.M.G.); and the Department of Ambulatory Care and Prevention, Harvard Medical School (J.E.B.) all in Boston; and the Departments of Medicine and Epidemiology and Public Health, University of Miami School of Medicine, and the Department of Biomedical Science, Center of Excellence, Florida Atlantic University, Miami (C.H.H.). This article was published at www.nejm.org on March 7, 2005.
Address reprint requests to Dr. Buring at the Division of Preventive Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, 900 Commonwealth Ave. East, Boston, MA 02215, or at jburing{at}rics.bwh.harvard.edu.
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