Background The outcome among patients with clinical stage Icancer that is detected on annual screening using spiral computedtomography (CT) is unknown.
Methods In a large collaborative study, we screened 31,567 asymptomaticpersons at risk for lung cancer using low-dose CT from 1993through 2005, and from 1994 through 2005, 27,456 repeated screeningswere performed 7 to 18 months after the previous screening.We estimated the 10-year lung-cancer–specific survivalrate among participants with clinical stage I lung cancer thatwas detected on CT screening and diagnosed by biopsy, regardlessof the type of treatment received, and among those who underwentsurgical resection of clinical stage I cancer within 1 month.A pathology panel reviewed the surgical specimens obtained fromparticipants who underwent resection.
Results Screening resulted in a diagnosis of lung cancer in484 participants. Of these participants, 412 (85%) had clinicalstage I lung cancer, and the estimated 10-year survival ratewas 88% in this subgroup (95% confidence interval [CI], 84 to91). Among the 302 participants with clinical stage I cancerwho underwent surgical resection within 1 month after diagnosis,the survival rate was 92% (95% CI, 88 to 95). The 8 participantswith clinical stage I cancer who did not receive treatment diedwithin 5 years after diagnosis.
Conclusions Annual spiral CT screening can detect lung cancerthat is curable.
In 1993, the Early Lung Cancer Action Project (ELCAP) initiateda study of the early diagnosis of lung cancer in cigarette smokerswith the use of annual screening with spiral computed tomography(CT).1,2 The principal finding was that more than 80% of personsgiven a diagnosis of lung cancer as a result of annual CT screeninghad clinical stage I cancer.3 This result has been confirmedby others4 who have adopted the updated protocol.5,6 The questionremains, however, whether early intervention in such patientsis sufficiently effective to justify screening large asymptomaticpopulations who are at risk for lung cancer.7,8 We report theresults of all patients in the study with stage I lung cancerdetected with the use of spiral CT screening, including thosewho underwent surgical resection.
Methods
Screening was defined according to the International ELCAP (I-ELCAP)protocol6 so that data from participating institutions couldbe pooled. Each institution was required to document the initiationof screening in each participant and all subsequent screeningsof that participant for as long as the screening continued,transmit the data and images to the coordinating center at WeillMedical College of Cornell University by means of the study'sWeb-based management system for CT screening for lung cancer,9submit pathological specimens to the coordinating center, andfollow quality-assurance procedures specified by the protocol.All participants gave written informed consent, and the institutionalreview board at each participating institution approved theprotocols (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Diagnoses of Lung Cancer Resulting from Baseline Screening and Annual Screening with CT.
A description of the I-ELCAP management algorithm for baseline CT and repeated CT screening is available in the study protocol.6
The protocol specified a common regimen of screening but allowedeach participating institution to specify its criteria for enrollment.The regimen included the technical variables for the initiallow-dose spiral CT scan, which were the same for the baselineand annual screenings. However, the definition of a positiveresult on the initial CT scan and the diagnostic workup leadingto a diagnosis of lung cancer were different for the baselinescreening and annual screening.
For baseline screening, a positive result on the initial low-doseCT scan was defined as the identification of at least one solidor partly solid noncalcified pulmonary nodule 5 mm or more indiameter, at least one nonsolid noncalcified pulmonary nodule8 mm or more in diameter, or a solid endobronchial nodule.10If none of the noncalcified nodules identified met the studycriteria for a positive result or if the test was negative,CT was repeated 12 months later. The diameter of the nodulewas defined as the average of the length and width of the cross-sectionalarea of the largest nodule in the CT images. The consistencyof the nodule was defined as solid if the nodule obscured theentire lung parenchyma, partly solid if it obscured part ofthe lung parenchyma, and nonsolid if it obscured none of theparenchyma.11 If the result was positive, the type of workupdepended on the diameter of the largest nodule. For nodules5 to 14 mm in diameter, the preferred option was to performanother CT at 3 months; if the images showed growth of the nodule,12then biopsy, ideally by fine-needle aspiration, was to be performed,whereas if there was no growth, the workup was stopped. Theother option was to perform positron-emission tomography (PET)immediately, and if the results were positive, biopsy was tobe performed; otherwise, CT was to be performed at 3 months.For nodules 15 mm in diameter or larger (whether solid, partlysolid, or nonsolid), immediate biopsy was an option in additionto the options already specified for smaller nodules. When infectionwas suspected, a 2-week course of antibiotics followed 1 monthlater by CT was an alternative to all the options mentioned,13and if no resolution or growth was observed, biopsy was to beperformed; otherwise, the workup was stopped. For all participantsfor whom the workup was stopped or for whom the biopsy did notlead to a diagnosis of lung cancer, CT was to be repeated 12months after the baseline CT.
For annual screenings, a positive result was considered to beany newly identified noncalcified nodule, regardless of size.If no new nodule was identified, CT was to be repeated 12 monthslater. If one or more new nodules were identified, the workupdepended on the diameter of the largest nodule. If all noduleswere less than 3.0 mm in diameter, or if the largest nodulewas more than 3.0 mm but less than 5.0 mm in diameter, CT 6or 3 months later, respectively, was to be performed. If nogrowth was seen in any of the nodules, the workup was stopped.If at least one of the noncalcified nodules was 5.0 mm or largerin diameter, then an immediate 2-week course of a broad-spectrumantibiotic was prescribed, followed 1 month later by CT. Ifthe nodules showed no resolution or growth, biopsy was to beperformed; otherwise, the workup was stopped. PET was an alternativeto immediate biopsy; if the result was positive, biopsy wasto follow. If the result was indeterminate or negative, CT wasto be performed 3 months later, and if the scans showed growth,biopsy was to follow. Otherwise, the workup was stopped. Forall patients for whom the workup was stopped or when biopsydid not result in a diagnosis of lung cancer, CT was to be repeated12 months after the previous annual CT.
The protocol provided recommendations for the diagnostic workupin participants with a positive result on CT, with the decisionregarding how to proceed left to each participant and the referringphysician. The I-ELCAP protocol did not require that its recommendationsfor the workup of a nodule be followed, but it did require afirmly established final diagnosis of lung cancer and documentationof the workup in the management system. After the diagnosisof lung cancer was established, the type of intervention, ifany, was left to the discretion of the participant and the physician.Documentation in the management system of the timing and typeof intervention, if any, and follow-up with respect to manifestationsof spread or death up to 10 years after diagnosis, were required.
A total of 31,567 asymptomatic men and women underwent baselinescreening between 1993 and 2005 (median, 2001). The participants,who were 40 years of age and older, were at risk for lung cancerbecause of a history of cigarette smoking, occupational exposure(to asbestos, beryllium, uranium, or radon), or exposure tosecondhand smoke without having smoked themselves; in Azumi,Japan, they participated as part of the annual health screeningprogram (Table 1). All participants were considered fit to undergothoracic surgery. A total of 27,456 annual screenings were conductedbetween 1994 and 2005 (median, 2002), each of which was performed7 to 18 months after the previous screening. At baseline, themedian age of the participants was 61 years (range, 40 to 85),and the median number of pack-years of smoking was 30 (range,0 to 141); on annual CT, the median values were an age of 62years (range, 41 to 86) and 35 pack-years (range, 0 to 141).Among the participants, 13% (4186 of 31,567) who underwent baselineCT and 5% (1460 of 27,456) who underwent annual CT had a positiveresult that required immediate further workup. A biopsy of apulmonary nodule as recommended in the protocol was performedin 535 of the participants with a positive result on the baselineor annual CT and led to a diagnosis of malignant disease in492 of the participants (lung cancer was diagnosed in 479 andlymphoma or metastases from cancers other than lung cancer in13) and no evidence of malignant disease in 43. The diagnosiswas classified as having been identified during baseline screeningwhen the nodule was first identified on the baseline CT, evenfor cases not meeting the criteria for a positive result, regardlessof when the diagnosis was made. When the nodule was first identifiedon an annual CT, it was attributed to the annual screening.If the result on the baseline or annual CT was negative anda diagnostic workup was subsequently prompted by suggestivesymptoms (or incidental findings) before the next scheduledannual CT, the finding was classified as an interim diagnosis.To fully document interim diagnoses of lung cancer, the protocolrequired that each enrolled participant who had not returnedfor the next scheduled screening be contacted 1 year after theprevious screening. If contact could not be made either directlyor through relatives of the participant, the referring physicianwas contacted to ascertain whether a diagnosis of lung cancerhad been made.
Table 1. I-ELCAP Participants, According to the Smoking Status, Exposure to Secondhand Smoke, and Occupational Exposures.
We determined the distribution of the baseline and annual screeningsand the resulting diagnoses according to age and median pack-yearsof cigarette smoking (Table 2). Each diagnosis of lung cancerwas classified according to clinical stage with the use of standardcriteria based on the clinical examination and the results ofimaging.14 The presence or absence of lymph-node (N) and distantmetastases (M) was assessed on the most recent CT obtained beforediagnosis and from PET (performed in 166 of the 484 participantswho received a diagnosis of lung cancer). The cancer was classifiedas N0M0 if on CT the widths of all mediastinal lymph nodes wereless than 10 mm and no hilar lymph nodes or distant metastaseswere identified (and PET, if performed, showed no abnormal uptake).For the purpose of this study, stage I cancers included thoseclassified as N0M0 with more than 1 adenocarcinoma so long asall adenocarcinomas were 30 mm or less in diameter.6
Table 2. Frequency Distribution of Lung-Cancer Diagnoses on Baseline and Annual CT Screening, According to Age and Median Pack-Years of Cigarette Smoking.
The specimens obtained from participants who underwent surgicalresection were examined at each institution according to theI-ELCAP pathology protocol,15 which specified the preparationof the specimen and the findings that were to be documentedby the pathologist at the hospital where the resection was performed.The protocol also specified the review process: a five-memberpathology-review panel consisting of expert pulmonary pathologistswas to reach a consensus diagnosis for each case of cancer andidentify lymph-node involvement, additional cancers, and pleural,lymphatic, vascular, bronchial, and basement-membrane invasionby the cancer. For 22 of the 411 participants who underwentresection (5%), specimens could not be obtained from a nonparticipatinghospital, and the panel therefore reviewed the detailed surgicaland pathological reports for the relevant information.
All patients given a diagnosis of lung cancer were followedannually by the principal investigator and by the study coordinatorat each participating institution, who submitted the informationrequired by the protocol to the coordinating center. When aparticipant was known to have died, the date and cause wereobtained from the participant's physician, family members, orboth. Death resulting from treatment was considered to havebeen caused by lung cancer. Follow-up from diagnosis to deathfrom lung cancer, the last contact, or May 30, 2006, whichevercame first, was documented for each participant. The durationof follow-up ranged from 1 to 123 months (median, 40).
Kaplan–Meier curves were calculated for lung-cancer–specificsurvival as of the date of diagnosis, irrespective of the typeof treatment, including no treatment, for all participants withlung cancer, irrespective of the stage of the cancer, and forthe subgroup with clinical stage I cancer. Survival curves werealso calculated for participants who underwent resection ofclinical stage I cancer within 1 month after diagnosis and thosewho did not receive treatment. On the basis of these curves,we estimated the 10-year survival rates. The curves were constructedwith the use of SAS statistical software (version 8), whichalso produced the standard error for the estimates.
Results
Baseline screening of 31,567 asymptomatic persons who were atrisk for lung cancer and annual screening of 27,456 resultedin the diagnosis of lung cancer in 405 and 74 participants,respectively (Figure 1). Another five participants receivedinterim diagnoses of lung cancer that were prompted by the developmentof symptoms within 12 months after the baseline screening. Ofthese 484 participants given a diagnosis of lung cancer, 411underwent resection; 57 received radiation, chemotherapy, orboth; and 16 received no treatment. Because survival rates amongthe participants who underwent baseline screening and thosewho underwent annual screening did not differ significantly,Kaplan–Meier estimates of lung-cancer–specific survivalwere calculated for all 484 participants (Figure 2). The estimated10-year survival rate for all participants, regardless of tumorstage and treatment, was 80% (95% confidence interval [CI],74 to 85); as of May 2006, 75 of the 484 participants had diedof lung cancer, including 2 who died within 4 weeks after surgery,yielding an operative mortality rate of 0.5% (2 of 411 participants).
Figure 2. Kaplan–Meier Survival Curves for 484 Participants with Lung Cancer and 302 Participants with Clinical Stage I Cancer Resected within 1 Month after Diagnosis.
The diagnoses were made on the basis of CT screening at baseline combined with cycles of annual CT.
Of the 484 participants who received a diagnosis of lung cancer,412 (85%) had clinical stage I lung cancer. In this subgroup,the estimated 10-year survival rate regardless of treatmentwas 88% (95% CI, 84 to 91); as of May 2006, 39 of these 412patients had died of lung cancer. Of these 412 participants,375 had undergone surgical resection (284 lobectomy, 60 wedgeresection, 21 segmentectomy, and 10 bilobectomy); 29 did notundergo resection but received chemotherapy, radiation, or both;and the remaining 8 did not receive treatment. Figure 2 alsoshows the lung-cancer–specific survival rate among the302 participants who underwent resection within 1 month afterdiagnosis, among whom the estimated 10-year survival rate was92% (95% CI, 88 to 95). All eight untreated patients died within5 years after diagnosis.
Among the 412 participants with clinical stage I cancer, thedistribution according to the type of cell is shown in Table 3.The median tumor diameter was 13 mm at baseline and 9 mm onannual CT. The pathology-review panel confirmed the diagnosisof clinical stage I cancer in the specimens obtained from the375 participants who underwent resection according to WorldHealth Organization criteria of 2004.16 With regard to spreador invasion (Table 4), the panel identified lymph-node metastases(hilar or ipsilateral mediastinal) in 28 participants (7%) andmore than one cancer, either in the same or in different lobes,in another 35 (9%). Among the remaining participants, each witha solitary cancer, the panel identified invasion of the pleurain 62 (17%); bronchial, vascular, or lymphatic invasion or acombination in another 28 (7%); invasion of the basement membranealone in 203 (54%), and no invasion in the remaining 19 (5%).(Because of rounding, percentages may not total 100.) Thus,of the 375 participants who underwent resection, 347 had pathologicalstage I cancer, and their estimated 10-year survival rate was94% (95% CI, 91 to 97).
Table 4. Extent of Spread of Cancer in 375 Participants Who Underwent Resection of Clinical Stage I Lung Cancer According to Whether Cancer was Detected on Baseline or Annual CT Screening.
Discussion
In making decisions about instituting CT screening for lungcancer, a major consideration is the outcome of treating a cancerdetected on screening. In our study, the estimated 10-year lung-cancer–specificsurvival rate among the 484 participants with disease diagnosedon CT, regardless of the stage at diagnosis or type of treatment(including no treatment), was 80% (95% CI, 74 to 85) (Figure 2).Among the 412 participants with clinical stage I lung cancer— the only stage at which cure by surgery is highly likely— the estimated 10-year survival rate was 88% (95% CI,84 to 91), and among those with clinical stage I lung cancerwho underwent surgical resection within 1 month after the diagnosis,the rate was 92% (95% CI, 88 to 95). The diagnosis of lung cancerof one type or another was verified by a panel of five expertpulmonary pathologists. In our series, the operative mortalityrate was low — 0.5% — and was less than the 1.0%reported with lobectomy in a large cooperative study.17
Sobue et al.18 reported a 5-year survival rate of 100% in theirseries of 29 patients who underwent resection after pathologicalstage I cancer was detected on CT. Before CT screening, reportsbased on registries showed 10-year survival rates of 80% among17 patients with pathological stage I lung cancer 20 mm or lessin diameter19 and 93% among 35 patients with pathological stageI cancer less than 10 mm in diameter.20 The National CancerInstitute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)registry, the largest U.S. cancer registry, reported an 8-yearsurvival rate of 75% among patients with pathological stageI cancer with nodules less than 15 mm in diameter who had undergoneresection.8 Although the lung cancers in these three serieswere not detected on CT screening, most were presumably incidentallydetected on imaging performed for other reasons in people whohad no symptoms of lung cancer.
CT screening according to the I-ELCAP regimen can detect clinicalstage I lung cancer in a high proportion of persons when itis curable by surgery. In a population at risk for lung cancer,such screening could prevent some 80% of deaths from lung cancer.In comparison, in the United States at present, annually approximately173,000 persons are diagnosed with lung cancer and 164,000 deathsare attributed to this disease,21 so that approximately 95%of those who are diagnosed with lung cancer die from it.
Are these results sufficiently effective to justify screeningpeople who are at risk of lung cancer? As compared with mammographicscreening for breast cancer, for lung cancer the rates of detectionamong the participants in this study who were 40 years of ageand older were 1.3% on baseline CT screening and 0.3% on annualscreening (Table 2), values that were slightly higher than thosefor the detection of breast cancer (0.6 to 1.0% on baselinescreening) and similar to those for annual screening (0.2 to0.4%) among women 40 years of age and older.22 The rate of cancerdetection depends on the risk profile of those undergoing screening;the higher the risk, the more productive the screening. Thus,as expected, CT screening of the original participants in ELCAP,who were former and current smokers 60 years of age and older,1,2was more productive in detecting lung cancer (detection rates,2.7% on baseline screening and 0.6% on annual screening) thanamong participants in the expanded study. The cost of low-doseCT is below $200,23,24,25,26 and surgery for stage I lung canceris less than half the cost of late-stage treatment.26,27 Usingthe original ELCAP data and the actual hospital costs for theworkup, we found CT screening for lung cancer to be highly cost-effective.23Other estimates of the cost-effectiveness of CT screening forlung cancer for various risk profiles24,25,26,28 are similarto that for mammography screening.29,30
Supported in part by the National Institutes of Health (grantsR01-CA-633931, to Dr. Henschke, and R01-CA-78905, to Dr. Yankelevitz);the Department of Energy (DE-FG02-96SF21260, to Dr. Markowitz);the Department of Defense to Dr. Tockman; Department of Healthand Mental Hygiene of the City of New York; New York State Officeof Science, Technology, and Academic Research; American CancerSociety; Israel Cancer Association; Starr Foundation; New YorkCommunity Trust; Rogers Family Fund; Foundation for Lung Cancer:Early Detection, Prevention, and Treatment; Foundation for EarlyDetection of Lung Cancer; Dorothy R. Cohen Foundation; ResearchFoundation of Clinic Hirslanden; Clinic Hirslanden; SwedishHospital; Yad-Hanadiv Foundation; Jacob and Malka Goldfarb CharitableFoundation; Auen–Berger Foundation; Princess MargaretFoundation; Tenet Healthcare Foundation; Ernest E. Stempel Foundation,Academic Medical Development; Empire Blue Cross and Blue Shield;Eastman Kodak; General Electric; Weill Medical College of CornellUniversity; New York Presbyterian Hospital; Christiana CareHelen F. Graham Cancer Center; Holy Cross Hospital; EisenhowerHospital; Jackson Memorial Hospital Health System; and EvanstonNorthwestern Healthcare.
Drs. Henschke and Yankelevitz report receiving royalties fromCornell Research Foundation as inventors of methods to assesstumor growth and regression on imaging tests for which pendingpatents are held by Cornell Research Foundation and licensedto General Electric. No other potential conflict of interestrelevant to this article was reported.
* The International Early Lung Cancer Action Program investigatorsare listed in the Appendix.
Source Information
The members of the Writing Committee (Claudia I. Henschke, M.D., Ph.D., David F. Yankelevitz, M.D., Daniel M. Libby, M.D., Mark W. Pasmantier, M.D., and James P. Smith, M.D., New York Presbyterian Hospital–Weill Medical College of Cornell University, New York; and Olli S. Miettinen, M.D., Ph.D., McGill University, Montreal) of the International Early Lung Cancer Action Program assume responsibility for the overall content and integrity of the article.
Address reprint requests to Dr. Henschke at New York Presbyterian Hospital–Weill Medical College of Cornell University, 525 E. 168th St., New York, NY 10021, or at chensch{at}med.cornell.edu.
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Appendix
The following investigators participated in I-ELCAP: Joan andSanford I. Weill Medical College of Cornell University, NewYork: C.I. Henschke (principal investigator), D.F. Yankelevitz,D.I. McCauley; Azumi General Hospital, Nagano, Japan: S. Sone,T. Hanaoka; Center for the Biology of Natural Systems, CityUniversity of New York at Queens College, Queens: S. Markowitz,A. Miller; LungenZentrum Hirslanden, Zurich: K. Klingler, T.Scherer, R. Inderbitzi; Clinica Universitaria de Navarra, Pamplona,Spain: J. Zulueta, L. Montuenga, G. Bastarrika; National CancerInstitute Regina Elena, Rome: S. Giunta, M. Crecco, P. Pugliese;H. Lee Moffitt Cancer Center and Research Institute, Tampa,FL: M. Tockman; Hadassah Medical Organization, Jerusalem, Israel:D. Shaham; Swedish Medical Center, Seattle: K. Rice, R. Aye;University of Toronto, Princess Margaret Hospital, Toronto:H. Roberts, D. Patsios; Christiana Care Helen F. Graham CancerCenter, Newark, DE: T. Bauer, J. Lally; Columbia UniversityMedical Center, New York: J.H.M. Austin, G.D.N. Pearson; NewYork University Medical Center, New York: D. Naidich, G. McGuinness;State University of New York at Stony Brook, Stony Brook: M.Rifkin, E. Fiore; Maimonides Medical Center, Brooklyn, NY: S.Kopel; Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, NY: D. Klippenstein,A. Litwin, P.A. Loud; State University of New York Upstate MedicalUniversity, Syracuse: L.J. Kohman, E.M. Scalzetti; North Shore–LongIsland Jewish Health System, New Hyde Park, NY: A. Khan, R.Shah; Georgia Institute for Lung Cancer Research, Atlanta: M.V.Smith, H.T. Williams, L. Lovett; Mount Sinai School of Medicine,New York: D.S. Mendelson; Jackson Memorial Hospital, Universityof Miami, Miami: R. Thurer; Memorial Sloan-Kettering CancerCenter, New York: R.T. Heelan, M.S. Ginsberg; Holy Cross HospitalCancer Institute, Silver Spring, MD: F. Sullivan, M. Ottinger;Eisenhower Lucy Curci Cancer Center, Rancho Mirage, CA: D. Vafai;New York Medical College, Valhalla: T.A.S. Matalon; Mount SinaiComprehensive Cancer Center, Miami Beach, FL: S.-L. Odzer; FifthAffiliated Hospital (Zhuhai Hospital), of Sun Yat-Sen University,Zhuhai, China: X. Liu; Dorothy E. Schneider Cancer Center, Mills-PeninsulaHealth Services, San Mateo, CA: B. Sheppard; St. Agnes CancerCenter, Baltimore: E. Cole; Our Lady of Mercy Medical Center,Bronx, NY: P.H. Wiernik; Evanston Northwestern Healthcare MedicalGroup, Evanston, IL: D. Ray; Karmanos Cancer Institute, Detroit:H. Pass, C. Endress; Greenwich Hospital, Greenwich, CT: D. Mullen;Sharp Memorial Hospital, San Diego, CA: M. Kalafer; City ofHope National Medical Center, Duarte, CA: F. Grannis, A. Rotter;ProHealth Care Regional Cancer Center, Waukesha and OconomowocMemorial Hospitals, Oconomowoc, WI: M.K. Thorsen, R. Hansen;Comprehensive Cancer Center, Desert Regional Medical Center,Palm Springs, CA: E. Camacho; St. Joseph Health Center, St.Charles, MO: D. Luedke; Coordinating Center: C.I. Henschke,N. Altorki, A. Farooqi, J. Hess, D. Libby, D.I. McCauley, O.S.Miettinen, J. Ostroff, M.W. Pasmantier, A.P. Reeves, J.P. Smith,M. Vazquez, D.F. Yankelevitz, R. Yip, L. Zhang, K. Agnello;Pathology Review Panel: D. Carter, E. Brambilla, A. Gazdar,M. Noguchi, W.D. Travis.
CT Screening for Lung Cancer
Gould M. K., Berg C. D., Aberle D. R., the National Lung Screening Trial Executive Committee , Bach P. B., Kulaga S., Karp I., Yee A. J., Lynch T. J., Silvestri G. A., Miller A., Markowitz S., Miller J. A., Lee P., Postmus P. E., Sutedja T. G., Dehavenon A., Henschke C. I., Smith J. P., Miettinen O. S.
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