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Correspondence
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Volume 335:1998-1999 December 26, 1996 Number 26
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Decline in HIV Infections in Thailand

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 by Nelson, K. E.
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To the Editor: Nelson et al. (Aug. 1 issue)1 report that seropositivity for the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) declined among Thai military conscripts from a range of 10.4 to 12.5 percent in the period 1991 to 1993 to 6.7 percent in 1995, and they attribute the decline to the increased use of condoms. The authors rely on the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy, attributing causation on the basis of the temporal sequence (of a single pair of events). Among Ugandan men of comparable age, the prevalence of HIV declined from 11.8 percent in 1989 to 2.7 percent in 1994, . . . [Full Text of this Article]

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