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Original Article
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Volume 342:921-929 March 30, 2000 Number 13
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Viral Load and Heterosexual Transmission of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1
Thomas C. Quinn, M.D., Maria J. Wawer, M.D., Nelson Sewankambo, M.B., David Serwadda, M.B., Chuanjun Li, M.D., Fred Wabwire-Mangen, Ph.D., Mary O. Meehan, B.S., Thomas Lutalo, M.A., Ronald H. Gray, M.D., for The Rakai Project Study Group

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ABSTRACT

Background and Methods We examined the influence of viral load in relation to other risk factors for the heterosexual transmission of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1). In a community-based study of 15,127 persons in a rural district of Uganda, we identified 415 couples in which one partner was HIV-1–positive and one was initially HIV-1–negative and followed them prospectively for up to 30 months. The incidence of HIV-1 infection per 100 person-years among the initially seronegative partners was examined in relation to behavioral and biologic variables.

Results The male partner was HIV-1–positive in 228 couples, and the female partner was HIV-1–positive in 187 couples. Ninety of the 415 initially HIV-1–negative partners seroconverted (incidence, 11.8 per 100 person-years). The rate of male-to-female transmission was not significantly different from the rate of female-to-male transmission (12.0 per 100 person-years vs. 11.6 per 100 person-years). The incidence of seroconversion was highest among the partners who were 15 to 19 years of age (15.3 per 100 person-years). The incidence was 16.7 per 100 person-years among 137 uncircumcised male partners, whereas there were no seroconversions among the 50 circumcised male partners (P<0.001). The mean serum HIV-1 RNA level was significantly higher among HIV-1–positive subjects whose partners seroconverted than among those whose partners did not seroconvert (90,254 copies per milliliter vs. 38,029 copies per milliliter, P=0.01). There were no instances of transmission among the 51 subjects with serum HIV-1 RNA levels of less than 1500 copies per milliliter; there was a significant dose–response relation of increased transmission with increasing viral load. In multivariate analyses of log-transformed HIV-1 RNA levels, each log increment in the viral load was associated with a rate ratio of 2.45 for seroconversion (95 percent confidence interval, 1.85 to 3.26).

Conclusions The viral load is the chief predictor of the risk of heterosexual transmission of HIV-1, and transmission is rare among persons with levels of less than 1500 copies of HIV-1 RNA per milliliter.


Source Information

From the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Bethesda, Md. (T.C.Q.); Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore (T.C.Q., C.L., R.H.G.); Columbia University, New York (M.J.W., M.O.M.); and the Faculty of Medicine, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda (N.S., D.S., F.W.-M., T.L.).

Address reprint requests to Dr. Quinn at the Division of Infectious Diseases, Johns Hopkins University, 720 Rutland Ave., Ross 1159, Baltimore, MD 21205-2196.

Full Text of this Article


Related Letters:

A Study in Rural Uganda of Heterosexual Transmission of Human Immunodeficiency Virus
Bailey R. C., Fremont-Smith K., Quinn T. C., Wawer M. J., Sewankambo N. K.
Extract | Full Text  
N Engl J Med 2000; 343:364-365, Aug 3, 2000. Correspondence

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