The Effect of Fecal Occult-Blood Screening on the Incidence of Colorectal Cancer
Jack S. Mandel, Ph.D., M.P.H., Timothy R. Church, Ph.D., John H. Bond, M.D., Fred Ederer, M.A., Mindy S. Geisser, M.S., Steven J. Mongin, M.S., Dale C. Snover, M.D., and Leonard M. Schuman, M.D.
Background Both annual testing for fecal occult blood and biennialtesting significantly reduce mortality from colorectal cancer.However, the effect of screening on the incidence of colorectalcancer remains uncertain, despite the diagnosis and removalof precancerous lesions in many persons who undergo screening.
Methods We have followed the participants in the Minnesota ColonCancer Control Study for 18 years. A total of 46,551 people,most of whom were 50 to 80 years old, were enrolled between1975 and 1978 and randomly assigned to annual screening, biennialscreening, or usual care (the control group). Those assignedto the screening groups were asked to prepare and submit twosamples from each of three consecutive stools for guaiac-basedtesting. Those with at least one positive slide in the set ofsix were offered a diagnostic examination that included colonoscopy.Screening was conducted between 1976 and 1982 and again between1986 and 1992. Study participants have been followed with respectto newly diagnosed cases of colorectal cancer and deaths. Follow-uphas been more than 90 percent complete.
Results During the 18-year follow-up period, we identified 1359new cases of colorectal cancer: 417 in the annual-screeninggroup, 435 in the biennial-screening group, and 507 in the controlgroup. The cumulative incidence ratios for colorectal cancerin the screening groups as compared with the control group were0.80 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.70 to 0.90) and 0.83(95 percent confidence interval, 0.73 to 0.94) for the annual-screeningand biennial-screening groups, respectively. For both screeninggroups, the number of positive slides was associated with thepositive predictive value both for colorectal cancer and foradenomatous polyps at least 1 cm in diameter.
Conclusions The use of either annual or biennial fecal occult-bloodtesting significantly reduces the incidence of colorectal cancer.
Source Information
From Exponent, Menlo Park, Calif. (J.S.M.); the Divisions of Environmental and Occupational Health (T.R.C., M.S.G., S.J.M.), Biostatistics (F.E.), and Epidemiology (L.M.S.), School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis; the Minneapolis Veterans Affairs Hospital, Minneapolis (J.H.B.); the Emmes Corp., Potomac, Md. (F.E.); and Fairview Hospital, Minneapolis (D.C.S.).
Address reprint requests to Dr. Mandel at Exponent, 149 Commonwealth Dr., Menlo Park, CA 94025, or at jmandel{at}exponent.com.
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